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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

To be fair you can say that about many members on that analogy when the cold tinted specs are worn when you see constant speculation like theres definately going to be significant upgrades etc when infact, not one person has any clue what the next set of runs will definately be especially in battleground/blocking set ups like this. 

Besides my reading on the chart is as of follows, the deeper secondary low that forms will roll along the developing ridging Azores high and get close to the UK, it certainly looks like that when you look at the flow of the isobars and how secondary lows behave. I might be wrong and to be honest, its all fairly irrelevant because the next UKMO run could show something completely different. 

And, as often as not, those 'definite' upgrades turn out to be downgrades; if they didn't we'd already have snow up to our rooftops!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON 18z looks like a considerable improvement over the 12z at end of run, T120, better alignment of the problematic low:

image.thumb.jpg.b9fdd188b01cdf950f9d90fb737dacbb.jpg

12z at same time

image.thumb.jpg.72c4abbfa009b3b2f59d17a0fcbf0320.jpg

Caveat that this run stops at the crucial point.

Edit, I'll try again, I'm getting totally random pictures invading my post, scary, try to restore original ones...

 

 

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z looks like an improvement on the 12z at end of run, T120, better alignment of the problematic low:

image.thumb.jpg.43cf973ed2ad8b4a4fece422d32154c6.jpg

12z at same time

image.thumb.jpg.2521c8719693065811c2cac3e737474d.jpg

Caveat that this run stops at the crucial point.

 

And from where it goes from there we ani't got a scooby do.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
31 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

The old cliché on here is that THE Japanese model is 'well respected' or 'highly regarded' by the met office. Only when it shows cold though ;)

It's not a cliché at all. Ian Fergusson said as much when he used to post here.  His words were (not ver batim) that they used the JMA to support their theories after consulting their model. I assume preferred were MOGREPS and ECM. There was a mention at one point that he personally held it in higher regard to the older GFS...

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

18z up and running.

Will it do the GFS classic of blowing up the low like a beach ball or will we see stronger heights toward Greenland and a better undercut? Seems to have been some movement towards the latter across the model suite but still finely balanced.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The De-Built ens have took a turn for the better if it's cold you want

temps,dewpoints and wind direction

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.a45ec23add3215eaf2af6ac5620ecb51.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.d839211017b48e2c9107e0e0491eb108.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.23ad08f2605fa0a371a2e19a9c1bce49.png:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well good so far to T120 on the 18z, looks like it's going to slide, but this low is obviously causing some model confusion, so I wouldn't count chickens...

image.thumb.jpg.12c55373f6e7eb2bafa07eb12874ff73.jpg

surely though this has to go under? It's that stretched.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The De-Built ens have took a turn for the better if it's cold you want

temps,dewpoints and wind direction

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.a45ec23add3215eaf2af6ac5620ecb51.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.d839211017b48e2c9107e0e0491eb108.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.23ad08f2605fa0a371a2e19a9c1bce49.png:cold:

Last evening for comparison.that is a huge difference!!!

1290515954_eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.bb2e9deae2689d2a65f5e7cdfd04ff5d1.png.26c5ffd3a8ce0802fdaa8c7882863664.png1676831097_eps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.18a2376e50e16e8ce429a3d8245995362.png.676b5de57d900386322aa8db45a620ea.png618431115_eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.8463c62f300a2088599ec0d2cf909c3d3.png.21a4325ae55c6ba34505d44c8ebf5b14.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

That would be  a raw and wet day in a strong Easterly, shame the cold 850's weren't there to tap into
g rawgfs-0-126.png?18gfs-2-126.png?18gfs-1-126.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well good so far to T120 on the 18z, looks like it's going to slide, but this low is obviously causing some model confusion, so I wouldn't count chickens...

image.thumb.jpg.12c55373f6e7eb2bafa07eb12874ff73.jpg

surely though this has to go under? It's that stretched.

Weaker heights over Greenland and the coldest uppers further north though. Still much uncertainty, like you say.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well good so far to T120 on the 18z, looks like it's going to slide, but this low is obviously causing some model confusion, so I wouldn't count chickens...

image.thumb.jpg.12c55373f6e7eb2bafa07eb12874ff73.jpg

surely though this has to go under? It's that stretched.

I remember Atlantic252 better covers his eyes at that chart because if we are talking about the actual weather, then that is vile chart of gale force easterly winds and heavy rain! I'll be prepared to sacrafice any bad weather if it means we get the goods though. Can the 18Z deliver on that?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Weaker heights over Greenland and the coldest uppers further north though. Still much uncertainty, like you say.

By T144 it's disrupted into three pieces so it will go under, but agree that the colder uppers won't be hitting straightaway, but at the moment it is about jam tomorrow, preserving the blocking regime and I think this run does that, T144:

image.thumb.jpg.8696531ad88a6df1eb8f328475d3f177.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

By T144 it's disrupted into three pieces so it will go under, but agree that the colder uppers won't be hitting straightaway, but at the moment it is about jam tomorrow, preserving the blocking regime and I think this run does that, T144:

image.thumb.jpg.8696531ad88a6df1eb8f328475d3f177.jpg

Also blowing up the low farthest west in the Atlantic. The watching goes on!

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

By T144 it's disrupted into three pieces so it will go under, but agree that the colder uppers won't be hitting straightaway, but at the moment it is about jam tomorrow, preserving the blocking regime and I think this run does that, T144:

image.thumb.jpg.8696531ad88a6df1eb8f328475d3f177.jpg

OK, well, some of it went under at any rate, LOL, T162

image.thumb.jpg.118bdd9e38f69d5c84c92ff8931b372a.jpg

And that leaves a dog's breakfast...which won't verify, more runs needed!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Also blowing up the low farthest west. The watching goes on!

Yup I think this is going to be a milder run as a low that deep would take some stopping... the differences over Greenland are huge as well but not in our favour.

GFSOPEU18_159_2.png 18z

 GFSOPEU12_165_2.png 12z at the same time

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Also blowing up the low farthest west in the Atlantic. The watching goes on!

Its sooooo frustrating!!

That chart has northern blocking,PV sent over to siberia and then the Atlantic fires into life.

Horrible luck for coldies.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Hello Alaska i can c u from here,cross polar flow at 168,it's not a bad chart from where i am sitting with most of the pv over(again!)to the siberian side

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.66d77270ff221fc9c14db5cdbf1b2fa3.png

something is afoot,hopefully a foot of snow soon

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

To be honest the last week of model watching has become very tiring. Simply blocking not quite in the right place and uppers not good enough. Personally I'd sooner it was mild rather than this cold rain stuff. The dogs breakfast/dinner is being portrayed almost daily on all the model runs.

For me let's have a reset.....leave the atlantic win out for a while.....and maybe in a few weeks the blocking will take a proper hold and deliver some decent uppers and snow

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its sooooo frustrating!!

That chart has northern blocking,PV sent over to siberia and then the Atlantic fires into life.

Horrible luck for coldies.

Someone said the other day that those quasi-stationary Atlantic lows would be the theme and scupper our winter, i think it was jules, mind you if that was the theme of the winter, you would think that at some point we would get lucky with some huge battleground snowfalls.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Looks like it is trying to build heights over Scandinavia. Not sure it will be successful on this run though. 

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its sooooo frustrating!!

That chart has northern blocking,PV sent over to siberia and then the Atlantic fires into life.

Horrible luck for coldies.

As you alluded too in days gone by, I think its the west based NAO that is the issue, it is traditionally the most annoying pattern for cold lovers because you have blocking but in the wrong places. This time, we do have blocking that favours us but its only to an extent, its another run that does develop a large Atlantic low, whether it be like that in the days to come remains to be seen. 

As ever, by this time tomorrow we could be looking at totally different charts. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)

That Liberian anticyclone is being the nuisance here stopping the other low pressure systems to move east South of us. Note how it pulls up. That needs to sod off lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well i was feeling deflated last night... happier this morning and now back to feeling deflated again..

At least its mid Nov so winters not even started yet.

Think we may well have to suffer some Atlantic weather for a wee while...

As long as its not weeks on end i can live with that.

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