The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[tight isobar]

Energy- block miss-resolve 

 

 

 

Here....

Here..

And here...

 

Its stark too..

The ecm can do this as large scale blocks evolve...

An b4 i get kicked in the b###ocks!!!

I'll try 2 post the papers on such scenarios shortly !!!!

[MattStoke]

People paying too much attention to the latter part of the model runs when the mid term has yet to be resolved.

[bradymk]

If we take the ECM at +168 two days ago

And compare it with the ECM +120 from tonight

You can clearly see that as we’ve got closer to reality, the model has;

1) Underestimated heights around Iceland area

2) Has started to disrupt the trough to our west more, it is more negatively tilted and a little more elongated. 

3) heights in Europe lower than previously modelled 

If that trend continues in the next two days and the same for the subsequent frames after this, perhaps Day 10 will look a lot different come T+0 than it does now. This is the same for GFS too, not just ECM.

Uncertain outlook but certainly upgrades in the mid term from the models. UKMO pretty solid. Going to wait a couple of days at least yet.

[mulzy]

It all goes wrong at day 6 on the ECM - not sure how that low moves in so quickly without disrupting - unfortunate phasing?

FI starts at day 5 probably.

Edited November 20, 2018 by mulzy

[booferking]

Amazes me EC throwing out lows that take up nearly the whole Atlantic with no pv what so ever in Canada/Greenland.

And has been send above dont look no further than 120hr

Edited November 20, 2018 by booferking

[markw2680]

56 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Perhaps this thread will be better considering you seem hell bent on only ever posting the worst looking charts in terms of UK cold

NAVGEM is perhaps the worst performing model currently on the planet so not entirely worried about what its showing. Given the UKMO's solid consistency, the GFS/GEFS moving towards the undercut option and the ECM also showing the undercut, GFS(P) is currently largely out on it's own for the time being. 

I wish we could see it's ensembles, could be the warmest one out of the bunch.

Couldn’t of put it better myself

[phil nw.]

ECM  by day 7 phases the Atlantic and Greenland lows which then brings in the milder south westerlies.

Not what coldies want to see but it is quite different even by T144 compared to ukmo and gfs in the way  it  quickly  squeezes out the Hts  over  Greenland pulling that Atlantic trough north.

Some comfort  that ECM may not be the way it pans out if we look at the GFS mean at t168

not perfect but compared to the ECM chart above that Atlantic trough is well separated from Greenland at that stage with the main jet energy heading further south.

 

[lassie23]

45 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Wait a minute, I could swear the the NAVGM was the dogs b*****s just a few days ago?? you gotta love the consistency in this place  just teasing

Overall the 12z operationals definitely an improvement today, that can’t really be argued. Very impressed with the UKMO, ECM looks good out to 120 also.

Whichever model shows cold and snow seems to be the best performing model in this thread.

[Stuie]

9 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

ECM  by day 7 phases the Atlantic and Greenland lows which then brings in the milder south westerlies.

Not what coldies want to see but it is quite different even by T144 compared to ukmo and gfs in the way  it  quickly  squeezes out the Hts  over  Greenland pulling that Atlantic trough north.

Some comfort  that ECM may not be the way it pans out if we look at the GFS mean at t168

not perfect but compared to the ECM chart above that Atlantic trough is well separated from Greenland at that stage with the main jet energy heading further south.

 

Just using the FV3, Phil but the jet doesn`t want to go that south from 192 onwards.

2

Edited November 20, 2018 by Stuie W

[blizzard81]

The only thing I can add to all the comments thus far is to say model viewing is certainly not boring at the moment. We need the medium term to upgrade more and more and if we can manage this, the Atlantic low will fade into oblivion. 

Edited November 20, 2018 by blizzard81

[Rayth]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Whichever model shows cold and snow seems to be the best performing model in this thread.

The clue lies within the thread name  

[WalsallWeather123]

 

Big improvement from JMA in terms of cold potential. Yes by no means perfect but the low undercuts and there's an attempt at building heights towards Greenland as opposed to yesterdays run which bought mild southerlies. Fine margins but big differences possible

[Summer Sun]

JMA keeps it chilly over the weekend and into the start of next week but hopefully a bit less windy than the past couple of days

JMA end its current update with the low eventually winning out 204hr to 264hr will update later tonight 

[Seasonal Trim]

This thread is starting to descend into a Pantomime again. Any chance the sarky comments and the mildy/coldy crap can be done through PMs!? 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Nizzer said:

This thread is starting to descend into a Pantomime again.

Oh no it’s not

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

 

Big improvement from JMA in terms of cold potential. Yes by no means perfect but the low undercuts and there's an attempt at building heights towards Greenland as opposed to yesterdays run which bought mild southerlies. Fine margins but big differences possible

 

Like for like charts from JMA at 192hr was actually a bit more SE'ly yesterday rather than mild southerlies

Tonight

Yesterday

[Tim Bland]

JMA is another one for the bin  The bin is getting full, someone grab a bin bag we need to change it

Edited November 20, 2018 by Tim Bland

[phil nw.]

22 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Just using the FV3, Phil but the jet doesn`t want to go that south from 192 onwards.

2

We do need agreement first from day 5 before we can trust any modeled later evolution

.If those northern heights relax too much then it will pull the Atlantic trough disruption further north eventually,however we often see modeling underestimate the resistance of even a modest looking wedge of heights to our north or north east.With  a weaker Atlantic jet  as we have this Autumn this is always an option-maintaining a colder outlook.

Edited November 20, 2018 by phil nw.

[Mike Poole]

I don't rate the JMA for cold potential either, looks broadly in the FV3 ECM camp.  Really need to wait for the situation at T120 to be resolved as it will have a massive impact down the line.  UKMO promising, and you always like to have it on board, but it stops at T144 so we can't be sure of the evolution thereafter.  

Most definitely a case of more runs needed.  

Edited November 20, 2018 by Mike Poole

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

JMA is another one for the bin

When’s recycling day, the bins are full

[Day 10]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

JMA is another one for the bin  The bin is getting full, someone grab a bin bag we need to change it

What a rubbish post

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

JMA is another one for the bin  The bin is getting full, someone grab a bin bag we need to change it

The JMA is perfectly feasible, it lies probably slap bang in the middle of the spread on all the output so far today - why is it for the bin?

[phil nw.]

Let's keep it sensible-and friendly please folks.

There's humour and there's unpleasantness and we don't want the latter ta.

Now back to the cold hunt,preferably with some model content.

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The JMA is perfectly feasible, it lies probably slap bang in the middle of the spread on all the output so far today - why is it for the bin?

Because it doesn’t show cold and snow..it was s joke

[matt111]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The JMA is perfectly feasible, it lies probably slap bang in the middle of the spread on all the output so far today - why is it for the bin?



I could be wrong but I think that was in response to the earlier posts about binning the run. 

Anyway at least it's only model runs going in the bin and not the entire model