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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anything on the 144 hour chart or is that bad lol!surely cant be after looking at the 120 hour chart and all that trough disruption!!

Not that good, neither the T168, both charts.

image.thumb.jpg.19a0e8946ed48454250253b6a5370c6b.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.260a114b3843be007d0f512f33531f61.jpg

UKMO and GFS v FV3 and ECM it would seem, need more runs to resolve, but overall an improvement on today's 12s.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ecm  getting the jist!!..

Want to seperate and expel the AT feature...why not..makes sense given pressure formats..and is a distructional sequence!!!!

A notable sync for clearer block formation..

And an expel of energy in the region..

ECH1-168 (1).gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

ECM is showing milder air trying to edge in around 168 hours, so there is definately some trends on the Atlantic trying to break down this blocking pattern. Whether it does or not is still open to alot of doubt but you certainly can't dismiss it because the models are certainly edging towards that solution and is a lot more likely than an Arctic NE'ly occuring at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

-8's flooding SW AT 168.

ECH0-168.GIF.thumb.png.9b18e59fb4908750259b2a4c0eaa692f.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

just when you think everything is sorted regarding cold,ECM decided to throw out a shocker.I give up with this model watching sometimes!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ecm  getting its link or load..

I feel the ecm is having one of its nightmares..where it usually notes-and fold blocking/energy systems...

But then collapses on its own bias...and cannot decipher the route!!!

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.fc0a6240260ed0b7fbae10c0d04129ce.png

Swingometers still remaining mild but some still have cold over the UK on December 1st. Unfortunately I haven't been tracking a few days earlier with these as this is the period were key changes may take place. As long as that dark blue line remains there then we can hope for a swing in the output. Its not happened yet though.

By December 1st most runs have the Atlantic making inroads and the ens as a result a few days later are generally mild but changes can't be ruled out even though milder whether glancing at these appears to be the form horse. Stalling of that low for a few more hours, disruption of the incoming low, better allignment of the Greenland high may have dramatic knock on effects.

image.thumb.png.8e5e03cd621e4500af5b4ca82669ba78.png

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this is why i love this place in winter two posts above saying the complete opposite to each other for the same time frame and same run. i think todays model runs have been an over all improvement if its cold you are after, snaw on the other hand is a difficult thing to predict and as the saying goes get the cold in first and then the snaw will follow.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well it looks OK at 168 but i can see heights to the south being a pain on this run..

Yep,just out of reach from that cold pool from the NE,watch it build a monster high at 240.

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

192 hours that Low to the west really needs to get lost! Quite a deep low as well! Well the output were going so well! UKMO  looks so straight forward so banking on that!

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Just now, SLEETY said:

just when you think everything is sorted regarding cold,ECM decided to throw out a shocker.I give up with this model watching sometimes!

The problem we have is the forecast west based NAO, it just makes any cold weather being sustained much more harder unfortunately. All that said though, the first 168 hours on the ECM is fairly chilly so not really a shocker in my eyes. But its another run which shows the Atlantic could start making a return eventually.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
9 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Im afraid thats not strictly true

If you have one long continuous jet stream then yes its hard to back the cold SW however when you have a jet streak which then moves through the residual flow of the High & low that is left in its wake will advect upper air SW due to the natural flow & wind allignment- its a slower process but if you look at 144 UKMO thats whats happening -

9C986D26-FAFF-4EB6-B3B1-A6B1213292C0.thumb.png.8d76f5c3a7087efedaf60ea2ea040d91.png

The jet is alligned NE SE across scandi not W > E

The cold air then filters SW around the base of the high-

 

Not sure why it’s attached SM post

 

ecm, has stepped to the left, couple  more steps to the left and it’s game on.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Very much milder weather returning,according to the latter stages of ECM.Big difference from 12 hours ago.Nice to see consistency from the model then!

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Well next Friday I was planning to lag the heating pipes  only thing now I'm worried about is getting sand on my beach picnic  in all seriousness models still playing around with various scenarios  wouldn' t surprise me if the next set of runs doesn't put this  pesky low in the Pacific 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Very much milder weather returning,according to the latter stages of ECM.Big difference from 12 hours ago.Nice to see consistency from the model then!

different route but GFS goes same way, after spell of hill snow

ukmaxtemp.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Very much milder weather returning,according to the latter stages of ECM.Big difference from 12 hours ago.Nice to see consistency from the model then!

shows how finely balanced the set up is ………………..

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well next Friday I was planning to lag the heating pipes  only thing now I'm worried about is getting sand on my beach picnic  in all seriousness models still playing around with various scenarios  wouldn' t surprise me if the next set of runs doesn't put this  pesky low in the Pacific 

That sounds painful does that...

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Just now, Raythan said:

Make up your mind mate , easterlies for the foreseeable or Atlantic break down? 

you’re like the human version of the CFS with these swings 

BCB0F322-3CEE-49C7-95CA-7E13A40F8AF5.jpeg

Not got a clue and nor has anyone else in this thread, I see an easterly contiuing for the timebeing but the threat of the Atlantic coming in eventually is certainly there but because its still 168 hours away at least then its most certainly subject to change in terms of timings and it may not even come in at all and we stay in a blocked pattern? 

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