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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mind you theres a good few members that go zonal in the second half of the run.

Most likely related to high pressure wanting to ridge into Europe..

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
18 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Lots of loverly battleground snow events on that run with plenty of room for upgrades - winter is upon us

I an only see 1 day of snow turning to rain on 12z GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 at T144:  looks like this one is still to catch up, if it's wrong at T144 not much point bothering with the rest of the run, here with GFS for comparison:

image.thumb.jpg.3271e7193d28f2e96690acfd30e80417.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a4161b811ae9139d4561270f5d1b3269.jpg

Hopefully the new GFS will be less prone flip-flopping, something the current version is all too fond of...?

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Not really cherry picking, majority of models do not show a cold outlook, that just the facts. GFS has a few hours of sleet for most. Yes the overall pattern is good but on the surface (for the Uk) there is no model showing cold and snow. 

Edited by Mapantz
Removing quote
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Up to Saturday seems to have good agreement after this we have a lot of scatter on the 12z ens 

 

graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif

Thanks Gavin, still much to be resolved!

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Not really cherry picking, majority of models do not show a cold outlook, that just the facts. GFS has a few hours of sleet for most. Yes the overall pattern is good but on the surface (for the Uk) there is no model showing cold and snow. 

Maybe that is the case but why always the one that shows the mildest air from the south? There’s plenty of other ones to show too. 

Oh and this is not aimed at you but was just called disrespectful by another member, it’s hardly disrespectful to show a little frustration and constant mild picking charts!! Anyway rant over I’ll just go back to moaning and not posting

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Up to Saturday seems to have good agreement after this we have a lot of scatter on the 12z ens 

 

graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif

Scatter has 'of late ' been prominent!!.

Although a tad more eyeballing ...and you can note members are on the slide!!!

*screenshot and saved*..for 24hr compare!!!

MT8_London_ens (3).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

A lot of negativity in the posts while  the overall model output is a lot better this evening! Not overally Cold but not been shown with much conviction yet! The pattern is a lot better and should be happy if you want something colder longer term!

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

UW120-21 (1).gif

Think we need look no further than T+120/144 atm.UKMO at T+120 is good but not as good as T+144 last night as Heights starting to move a little too much Westwards over Greenland and Heights not as Low over Northern Italy.Would prefer core of Heights over Iceland if i am being picky.

GFS is a step in right direction and historically is too progressive with Atlantic pushing in so all in all things look finely balanced Be interesting to see how strong the block is in the coming days.Hopefully very strong as it has been there quite a while!!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Always a red said:

Bang on the money mate, can`t believe it never gets picked up

If it's going to snow, it's going to snow. End of...No amount of perceived negativity will change that...?:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
13 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

NAVGEM is perhaps the worst performing model currently on the planet so not entirely worried about what its showing. Given the UKMO's solid consistency, the GFS/GEFS moving towards the undercut option and the ECM also showing the undercut, GFS(P) is currently largely out on it's own for the time being. 

I wish we could see it's ensembles, could be the warmest one out of the bunch.

3

NAVGEM was actually outperforming ECM in the stats up to D6 as of Saturday according to Steve Murr

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

No bowling ball on the latest ecm at 120 v144 from this morning,i know it's 24hrs difference but nowt we can do about that.

ECH1-120.GIF.thumb.png.b73292c821761b7ec2dceab7be25be6b.pngECH1-144.GIF.thumb.png.eefc55d0be34efd96950a206b7045d8b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Wait a minute, I could swear the the NAVGM was the dogs b*****s just a few days ago?? you gotta love the consistency in this place  just teasing

Overall the 12z operationals definitely an improvement today, that can’t really be argued. Very impressed with the UKMO, ECM looks good out to 120 also.

0E60A3C6-EB52-45EB-AFAC-C203A52617EB.thumb.png.deac8f37fff5f0ee487ae02c2b365d16.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anything on the 144 hour chart or is that bad lol!surely cant be after looking at the 120 hour chart and all that trough disruption!!

Not especially cold, as to be expected in November, hate these setups, wish these charts would come back in 2 months

ECM1-144.GIF?20-0

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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