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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Just throwing this in there also..

@prospects #looking @great #all round

10hpa strat thermo !!!

gfsnh-10-204.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

So complete 180 from the 6z gfs to the 12z gfs. Just shows any kind of battleground scenario and the models struggle to get a grip. Also makes longterm ensembles pointless as demonstrated today. Expect Ecm to follow up with more good news and complete the set. Then we can all get a good nights sleep and dream of a snowy december. Or for the negative among us the dreaded shortwave scuppering potential nirvana. Exciting times ahead i feel.

An unpleasant mix of rain, sleet and snow edging slowly northeast...How far will it get?

Netweather GFS Image

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Hello... 

gfs-0-144.png

Cold to the north tantalizingly close to winning out for the long term here. The perfect combination for cold. Shame it's not the parallel ;)

Let's hope that the GFS para isn't still smelling yesterday's coffee?

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Snow to rain event if it happened?

gfs-1-210.thumb.png.b4c1d367fc774510ed368c4de4272800.pnggfs-1-222.thumb.png.18524f57145ccc772980a758a7a2f6b1.png

Yes possibly, lets hope it stalls instead though.

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Snow to rain event if it happened?

gfs-1-210.thumb.png.b4c1d367fc774510ed368c4de4272800.pnggfs-1-222.thumb.png.18524f57145ccc772980a758a7a2f6b1.png

but that far out still room for further upgrades to the cold to win the battle

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see the front move south again (on this run at least)

Be interesting to see where the boundary line would be. If it happened and stalled somewhere could get alot of snow.

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inghams85 Community Regular

inghams85

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted

Things on track from what I posted 5 days ago. I expected a battleground snow event then north easterly followed by Northerly as a second round of retrogression kicks in back end of the first week of December

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Yes PLEASE!:yahoo:

Netweather GFS Image

And some sub-30C uppers, on the eastern side of the Meridian?

Netweather GFS Image

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Yes PLEASE!:yahoo:

Netweather GFS Image

I will take that as a welcome back to Scotland chart 2 days after i arrive back up. the models really have struggled to get a handle on this upcoming spell of weather probably down to the fact that its not the normal zonal dross we usually get i guess.

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

GFS again in FI wants to bring the Atlantic bulldozer through but with it struggling so much at less than a week away these lo-res finishes should be taken with a huge dose of salt (remember the consistent very cold scenarios of a few days ago played out in FI)?...

gfs-0-384.png

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

First post of the season.

Good evening to all my fellow winter enthusiasts:)

After Inspecting the models tonight it does look like things are pivoting in favour of a continued colder set up- as opposed to an Atlantic push.

However after 15 years of winter model watching I have come to the conclusion that ‘damp’ cold is not my friend. Cold 850s are great and all but bring me those cold dew points, get that air positively continental, get the pesky moisture out, let the sun shine, the nights crisp up, and the powder snow fall.

Our moist air can be quite depressing when it ‘tries’ to be wintry. Drip drip ......no thanks. 

Crisp-cold-Arctic air yes please, marginal damp cold air, not a fan.

I have now set my bench really high. Here’s to hoping this winter can deliver at least a few weeks of proper dry cold.

 

 

Edited by chris55
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Yep an improvement as such gFS moving things south.carinthians comments earlier come to mind regarding her forecast via there agency.pressure building towards Greenland and cold from the nne not impossible hopefully

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted (edited)

Good to see the UKMO hold steadfast on the 12z with the more southerly extension of troughing across western Europe beneath the blocking high over Iceland, while 12z GFS decides to side with it too, just need the 12z ECMWF to follow suit in supressing more the southern arm of the jet ploughing into western Europe, rather than buckling it north towards the UK to bring milder air from the SW.

The greater -NAO signal from the 12z GFS, which has been a feature of UKMO recent runs and stronger block to the north fits in with the lag effect on the NAO of MJO pushing through phases 6-8 on the forecasts, now with a more coherent amplitude from ECMWF too, which often leads to a more negative phase of the NAO.

ecmm.thumb.png.fef4ff492880ddf80ef85a7ffd53550d.pnggfsb.thumb.png.4b95eb08ee7d78865d48d6391a55b71b.png

Just don't want the blocking to retrograde too far west, as this wouldn't be so good longer term.

Edited by Nick F
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

GFS 12z ensembles to 192 are a case of "whatever you are having yourself".

 

 

 

They look a heck of a lot better than the 6z suite in terms of a lot more are cold, however yes - they are loads of different synoptic setups that bring that cold.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

FV3 at T144:  looks like this one is still to catch up, if it's wrong at T144 not much point bothering with the rest of the run, here with GFS for comparison:

image.thumb.jpg.3271e7193d28f2e96690acfd30e80417.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a4161b811ae9139d4561270f5d1b3269.jpg

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