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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Phenonminal run in genral...

Its a classic blocked...all roads lead to cold show!!!!

Steady on lol that’s definitely pushing the envelope of probabilities! 

GFS looks better at 120, undercutting lows, but let’s see where it goes....

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Whatever the longer-term outlook brings, the coming weekend will feel a lot less cold than today!☕

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Much, much better from the GFS.

Trough.thumb.png.68fce964ea5265c4a0e5f8bd9b1b28a2.png

Major trough disruption, sharper flow across Scandi and lower heights to the S of the UK, fantastic!

GFS finally smelling the coffee, but will it blow up the lows as per usual as we head towards FI. I think that's all round agreement now for the slider. Just need to see that bitter cold brought West now.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Lol a lot of sharp observers on this thread I see , you all beat me to it.

Indeed the GFS is better sending energy east with a low over the south of the UK. Question is can it withstand the next push from the Atlantic?

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Indeed. Much better at T+120...Long term is still as clear as mud.

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed. Much better at T+120...Long term is still as clear as mud.

Netweather GFS Image

Better than the UKMO even!!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

That right there is progress... so whatever this run shows post +132 is not a big deal, as long as this theme continues.. (undercutting lows)

6F7AEE81-C3AA-4632-A49C-0C189F76C6B1.thumb.png.e00b63a3459acf9d4eb6312ba5e9ab0d.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPEU12_150_2.png

Now the -5C line is advancing south, something which can help disrupt the lows that head towards us! that high to the WSW of Spain needs to stay put though.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

As expected more upgrades. Just an adjustment in the models known bias. Ignore the ensembles there worth nothing in this type of synoptic. The models traditionally struggle with split energy. If it's got it wrong at 120 it's got it wrong at 320. Watch the ensembles fall into line.

Edited by inghams85
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Wallop !!!.

The shunt is firmly on...

Pac-side punch..with sting-jet aid ramps it up..

And the atlantic begins complete non -progression..and greenland formats are given permission!!! 

Some exactions in the euro quater..and its push the button-get the money!!!!

gfsnh-5-162.png

gfsnh-0-156.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Quite a difference on the GFS 12 hrs run, the blown up low has disappeared with several short waves running east se under the block.

The UKMO disagrees although its output is still okay . 

This still has a way to run but so far this evening we’re on an upward trend for coldies.

It’s the same old story, any hint of blocking and trough disruption and the models start to lose the plot !

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Quite a difference on the GFS 12 hrs run, the blown up low has disappeared with several short waves running see under the block.

The UKMO disagrees although it’s output is still okay . 

This still has a way to run but so far this evening we’re on an upward trend for coldies.

It’s the same old story, any hint of blocking and trough disruption and the models start to lose the plot !

Here's hoping for another swing on the swingometer... it seems a beast of a Greenland high is forming but will it influence the weather over the next 7-14 days more then that Spanish high?

The battle is on it seems. With these swingometers it seems if there is one cold run there is hope. Its a shame the ECM ensembles aren't available on WZ.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Upstream the UKMO looks okay but ill be interested too see what it does at 168 hours with the more rounded low.

Either way a return to Atlantic weather is by no means a formality just yet and the easterly flow is still here for the foreseeable future.

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

So complete 180 from the 6z gfs to the 12z gfs. Just shows any kind of battleground scenario and the models struggle to get a grip. Also makes longterm ensembles pointless as demonstrated today. Expect Ecm to follow up with more good news and complete the set. Then we can all get a good nights sleep and dream of a snowy december. Or for the negative among us the dreaded shortwave scuppering potential nirvana. Exciting times ahead i feel.

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