The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[winterof79]

Not too far away that colder air.

The potential  slider could drag us in to the action.Fun to be had as we near winter.

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/radar2.php?mode=1

Edited November 20, 2018 by winterof79

[Derecho]

Bit late today but the 06z ensembles are rather bland. For the start of December something average or mild looks likely to open the month.

The long range signal is also for mild conditions to be more likely. Of course I could be wrong but this is an objective way of looking at things. I was slated for saying 850s don't look very cold and viola here is what we have. The chances of a decent cold spell over the next 10 days look pretty slim now. The swingometer all the way out in December 6th looks mild also.

Finally here is the global temperature anomalies as a result of the model output, 0.57C above the 1981-2010 average according to GFS temperatures although this model tends to overestimate equatorial temperature anomalies in some areas of Africa. Impressive nontheless.

Edited November 20, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[tight isobar]

55 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Bit late today but the 06z ensembles are rather bland. For the start of December something average or mild looks likely to open the month.

The long range signal is also for mild conditions to be more likely. Of course I could be wrong but this is an objective way of looking at things. I was slated for saying 850s don't look very cold and viola here is what we have. The chances of a decent cold spell over the next 10 days look pretty slim now. The swingometer all the way out in December 6th looks mild also.

Finally here is the global temperature anomalies as a result of the model output, 0.57C above the 1981-2010 average according to GFS temperatures although this model tends to overestimate equatorial temperature anomalies in some areas of Africa. Impressive nontheless.

Depends on ones interp-of course!..

The mean divvers and waines...and causes mass scatter...late on.

With members-in a state of confuse!..

The overall bigger picture and balance is clearing the woods though....

And has clear and concise action for a more pronounced cooling into early december...and flags the cold pooling into large scale europe...and has aim @uk shores!!!!

Ps- i hope this was easy 4 some to decipher and understand...iv'e made it a basic-simple analysis !!!!!

 

Over 2 todays 12z-suites!

[booferking]

Just got the grass cut nice and tight there waiting for this slider to land.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Bit late today but the 06z ensembles are rather bland. For the start of December something average or mild looks likely to open the month.

 

Hi Quick, I understand what you're doing here, but do these graphs not simply show the normal scatter we see from the ensembles? And assuming these are from the GFS then they are never ever going to pick up a proper cold signal at that kind of range?

[ALL ABOARD]

Icon is cold throughout. Atlantic try's but it fails.

 

[Summer Sun]

ICON 12z keeps the low out west which keeps the UK in the cooler air with winds coming in from the east

[tight isobar]

Yep -icon stringing it out!..

And take note of the power jet..(pacific quadrant)...

A key that all is not well in the northern hem!!..

Noting our own regional southbound filing!!!

Take note on northern hem synops- through raw data/output..

With a big probable punch into the polar region...@western seaboard....as we gain..

Shunting an-already diss-organised polar vortex..eastwards!

Edited November 20, 2018 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Hi Quick, I understand what you're doing here, but do these graphs not simply show the normal scatter we see from the ensembles? And assuming these are from the GFS then they are never ever going to pick up a proper cold signal at that kind of range?

Well they picked up the Feb/March 18 cold spell from that range, the Nov 10 and Dec 10 spells, all but one of the numerous spells in 13, and the 09/10 spell at range, the reason most are showing no proper cold spell now is because there is very little chance of it happening within 16 days.

[The Eagle]

12z ICON not too bad. Worth remembering this model was the star performer during the Feb/Mar cold periods.

 

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

ICON consistent with its earlier run .... would be nice to see the euro ops stay on the undercut throughout 

notable that what looks to become less of a strong block continues to deflect the jet .... no phasing of the Atlantic with the arctic low heights .... upper ridge entering the fray from the sw late on could simply serve to inflate the ridge again - it remains fascinating ....

[Derecho]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Hi Quick, I understand what you're doing here, but do these graphs not simply show the normal scatter we see from the ensembles? And assuming these are from the GFS then they are never ever going to pick up a proper cold signal at that kind of range?

You are right in saying we should expect a lot of scatter and if some very cold runs do appear in a mild ensemble set they shouldn't be discounted.

However usually if something is brewing a load of cold ensemble members will appear and then we see the ups and downs that gave the swingometer its well deserved name,

I've not done these swingometers for long. I want to make them a regular thing and archive them for future use and study how the models behave in the run up to cold spells (if we get them!).

So maybe in a years time I'll be able to answer you better  but good questions.

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Well they picked up the Feb/March 18 cold spell from that range, the Nov 10 and Dec 10 spells, all but one of the numerous spells in 13, and the 09/10 spell at range, the reason most are showing no proper cold spell now is because there is very little chance of it happening within 16 days.

I've no time to go back and check, but if you're telling me that the GFS ensembles showed a consensus for deep cold at day 16 on all those occasions then I would be amazed. 

[SMU]

ICON 168 now looking identical to the UKMO 00z 168

A great solid run with no atlantic onslaught-

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I've no time to go back and check, but if you're telling me that the GFS ensembles showed a consensus for deep cold at day 16 on all those occasions then I would be amazed. 

he must have a different set of gfs ensembles because no way did they pick up all the cold spells at that range.Atlantic not going to make inroads it looks like,turning colder again if the icon is correct.

[booferking]

Once again UKMO 120hr to smashing.

[tight isobar]

Gfs 12z... hot on the heels of icon..mirrored placements/exactions...the icon quickly becoming the leading note raw !!!!

Edited November 20, 2018 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I've no time to go back and check, but if you're telling me that the GFS ensembles showed a consensus for deep cold at day 16 on all those occasions then I would be amazed. 

Not a consensus at D16, but lets put it this way, at least a few of ensembles will be flatlining at around -8c to -10 within the next 2-3 days if there is to be a proper spell from the north East within 16 days from now, contrary to popular opinion on here, the GEFS are not that bad that there are hardly any ensembles showing a potent cold spell at D10 and the whole suite 'cottons on' and they all collapse on the 850's graph at D8-10.

Edited November 20, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[weirpig]

UKMO sticking to its guns 144h

Edited November 20, 2018 by weirpig

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

UKMO sticking to its guns 144h

Phenonminal run in genral...

Its a classic blocked...all roads lead to cold show!!!!

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

UKMO sticking to its guns 144h

The cold is still heading south east as is the high, but with a second feature coming south.

May be a northerly down the line.

[Met4Cast]

Much, much better from the GFS.

Major trough disruption, sharper flow across Scandi and lower heights to the S of the UK, fantastic!

[seabreeze86]

GFS looks a lot better also much better Atlantic low shape looks like the block is stronger than the models anticipated,  as always 

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by seabreeze86

[tight isobar]

Major development !!!.

The At LP- begins to expand and squeeze..under the massive influence of surrounding blocking...

What ya wanna see imo...an intresting develop...and likely run 12z !!!

[seabreeze86]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Much, much better from the GFS.

Major trough disruption, sharper flow across Scandi and lower heights to the S of the UK, fantastic!

Yes a quite phenomenal upgrade really,  let's see were we go from here how much energy will go under the block and how far West can the proper cold air push