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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

NH profile agreed, UK cold however is further away. Deep cold way over in Russia! 

I feel like we are trying to squeeze frozen chocolate out a fairy liquid bottle at the moment! It’s hard going!

because of time of year, need this setup late Jan to late March

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

ECM basically confirming SM and Carinthians Single models thoughts.

What is not to like?Scandi /Iceland/ Scandi

I am starting to get interested.

Sorry should have said click on GIF

 

tempresult_zce4.gif

Edited by winterof79
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

The reality of course is that we have little consensus at this juncture.

Its great to watch, , although if i'm honest i'm  expecting the Atlantic to break through and an unsettled pattern setting up, for how long, i don't know..

At the very least, after today, we have a generally cold pattern, with temps probably below average for a good 6 to 7 days so i'm happy with that.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Lettergate meets easterlygate!

Will the letters arrive , will any easterly have any punch or will it be as strong and stable as the PM!

I think in a nutshell today’s output is a case of surviving the bowling ball low .  This low deepens in the Atlantic and slowly moves east . This doesn’t start to weaken till day nine  in the ECM at which point we see some trough disruption .

So still no resolution today although the ECM shows what could happen even with a very annoying Atlantic low .

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted
22 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Forgive me for not feeling the optimism... the det was very much on the cold side of its members by the looks of it. the mean not looking cold for the majority of the uk at D10

1D558BBC-183C-4FB5-8317-0421AC29E7E2.thumb.png.c3b9cc69c6d25dca457c33c41c04fc92.pngF5ECBF84-0271-4E85-8095-09DE0BC8B7B5.thumb.png.c52d4973d004db8690cf2dad44292d70.png

 

Hi Karlos -

Dont worry about the mean - the models are 'expected' to slowly retract this eastward progression over the next 48-72 hours ...

ECM det like the JMA last night develops an upper air cold pool in situ at day 10 with -7s feeding the SE ...

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Ventnor Viking Enthusiast

Ventnor Viking

Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
Posted

I think the overall pattern has slightly improved to day and has been less progressive with the Atlantic. I am expecting to see an upgrade of sorts from GFS 6Z and the GFS and ECM 12z from a coldies perspective. 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Have you got the 168hr ukmo chart please?

Yes

UKMO probably the best still for colder weather as it has what looks to be more of a NE'ly flow

UKMO                                                                       ECM

 ukm2.2018112700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.620af0b82d5dbdfdf3ff6203e7119895.pngecm2.2018112700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6a30c6066140ff27ed7f032a7d7bb24c.png

 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, Summer Sun said:

Yes

UKMO probably the best still for colder weather as it has what looks to be more of a NE'ly flow

UKMO                                                                       ECM

 ukm2.2018112700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.620af0b82d5dbdfdf3ff6203e7119895.pngecm2.2018112700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6a30c6066140ff27ed7f032a7d7bb24c.png

 

UKMO looks a corcker!!

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yes

UKMO probably the best still for colder weather as it has what looks to be more of a NE'ly flow

UKMO                                                                       ECM

 ukm2.2018112700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.620af0b82d5dbdfdf3ff6203e7119895.pngecm2.2018112700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6a30c6066140ff27ed7f032a7d7bb24c.png

 

It's tricky to tell on these charts, but it certainly looks like there's more disruption on the mid-Atlantic depression from the UKMO. It also makes a lot more of the storm ejected east off the coast of the US.

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

Certainly not too bad that UKMO 00Z 168 hour chart!

Just for a little comparison for Monday lunch time next week, this is what the GFS 12Z showed yesterday for that time.

A15E3376-AD0D-43C3-BA56-8B84BCC0EC67.thumb.png.191665036bbafd413e7cdfca2bf8fe38.png

And this is what today’s GFS 00Z shows for that time.

90D4DB4E-6195-4A63-A664-3D5F2A5D21FF.thumb.png.e15301e18fe51a3963680d8c5ab24d8d.png

More disruption done to the Low over the U.K. Is more squashed and tracks further South on today’s 00Z run keeping all the the U.K in a slack Easterly flow. Seemingly thanks to the Greenland/Iceland High extending a bit more of its ridging South-East towards the sneaky Low, with some of that High Pressure over the Spain area getting pushed out to our West/South-West.

A nice little improvement for the cold weather fans. Hopefully the models can keep it up.  

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO has been remarkable this past week !!!

I so wish we had a NH plot on the 168 !

Yes, and incidentally I'm still confused as to why people are putting so much faith in the old GFS as opposed to its newer iteration currently running as the para. It is more powerful and verifying better. Sort of like deliberately choosing to drive your slow old polluting banger when you have a fast, reliable, new hybrid in the garage.

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted

The same issue still remains the momentum is west to east. The UKMO 144 charts shows the cold air sinking south and east we may get a bit of pull back but it will only be temporary.

Untill we get the Jet swinging back around the high we won't get the cold air in.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

The same issue still remains the momentum is west to east. The UKMO 144 charts shows the cold air sinking south and east we may get a bit of pull back but it will only be temporary.

Untill we get the Jet swinging back around the high we won't get the cold air in.

Im afraid thats not strictly true

If you have one long continuous jet stream then yes its hard to back the cold SW however when you have a jet streak which then moves through the residual flow of the High & low that is left in its wake will advect upper air SW due to the natural flow & wind allignment- its a slower process but if you look at 144 UKMO thats whats happening -

9C986D26-FAFF-4EB6-B3B1-A6B1213292C0.thumb.png.8d76f5c3a7087efedaf60ea2ea040d91.png

The jet is alligned NE SE across scandi not W > E

The cold air then filters SW around the base of the high-

 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im afraid thats not strictly true

If you have one long continuous jet stream then yes its hard to back the cold SW however when you have a jet streak which then moves through the residual flow of the High & low that is left in its wake will advect upper air SW due to the natural flow & wind allignment- its a slower process but if you look at 144 UKMO thats whats happening -

9C986D26-FAFF-4EB6-B3B1-A6B1213292C0.thumb.png.8d76f5c3a7087efedaf60ea2ea040d91.png

The jet is alligned NE SE across scandi not W > E

The cold air then filters SW around the base of the high-

 

Would it be possible for the high to stay in situ and cold air move down from the north/north east? I think it is but interested in others thoughts. May be the high will be stronger than ecm/gfs are suggesting? 

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

As the chart above shows the key for the UKMO that makes it better than other models (other than not having a 940mb low like the GFS) is that it forms a proper low over Europe which with an upper low located closer to the UK allows us to maintain a longer easterly flow. 

Regarding uppers you can see on the day 5 and 6 charts that actually we are sucking in cold uppers so at day 7 i would imagine that would be even more of a feature.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

UW144-7.GIF?20-06

Keeping that NE flow at day 7 only makes us colder.

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Would it be possible for the high to stay in situ and cold air move down from the north/north east? I think it is but interested in others thoughts. May be the high will be stronger than ecm/gfs are suggesting? 

"Words out of my mouth  Low could be pushed back into Atlantic  allowing cold uppers from the North  then  low approaches on the Uk then Bam.  Snow fest.  Maybe.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Anyone know when, in January, the new GFS comes online, as I take it you need to have NWXtra to view it just now? Thanks in advance...

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Anyone know when, in January, the new GFS comes online, as I take it you need to have NWXtra to view it just now? Thanks in advance...

On meteociel - ‘GFS para’

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi Karlos -

Dont worry about the mean - the models are 'expected' to slowly retract this eastward progression over the next 48-72 hours ...

ECM det like the JMA last night develops an upper air cold pool in situ at day 10 with -7s feeding the SE ...

Hi Steve

That sounds promising then, exciting times, can’t wait to see that evolve over the next 48-72 hrs as you say. So very much still in the game ?

What’s driving this uncertainty and potential flip in the operationals?

I was thinking that the Models overplayed the original strength of any block and now are coming to some sort of agreement? 

TIA

Karlos

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted
22 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Hi Steve

That sounds promising then, exciting times, can’t wait to see that evolve over the next 48-72 hrs as you say. So very much still in the game ?

What’s driving this uncertainty and potential flip in the operationals?

I was thinking that the Models overplayed the original strength of any block and now are coming to some sort of agreement? 

TIA

Karlos

It's a split flow rather than a clean sub-tropical one which means that the models are struggling with how much energy to send into each flow and exactly where, hence it could be squished from the top or we torch from underneath. 

This is somewhat the result of the vortex being displaced rather than shredded. 

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