The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[CanadaAl]

Back looking at the GFS 18z, more improvements with the elongating low and this new low springing up across the north sea keeping things in a north-easterly. and the sniff of scandi blocking in FI is encouraging 

Edited November 20, 2018 by Paul
Moving discussion on

[GeordieX9v]

5 hours ago, CanadaAl said:

 

Not quite disillusioned yet with yesterdays output. Baby steps in the right direction.

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Come on guys. Let’s stick to the models please. Cheers!  We’ve got the Private Message / Sticky Notes features that can be used if you have any problems with members (I appreciate some are trying to be helpful, though some of the stuff was uncalled for!)

There’s a possibility we could open up a Technical Model Output thread in the future. It was a thread that was a great addition to the forum. Just we’ve got quite a few model threads running at the moment, but will certainly consider it if people really want it back.

Edited November 20, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144-

Bit above my pay grade to truthfully decipher where we would go from here but the 144 chart looks pretty chilly for the UK..

[northwestsnow]

GFS 00z looks a fair bit better this morning!!

Sheesh i was feeling despondent last night but i think there is grounds for optimism looking at GFS 00z out to 180..

[inghams85]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 00z looks a fair bit better this morning!!

Sheesh i was feeling despondent last night but i think there is grounds for optimism looking at GFS 00z out to 180..

As stated last night expect upgrades as the models tropical bias wanes. Sometimes it's about second guessing the models rather than reading them at face value. My opinion is we start with a battleground snow event followed by north east then northerly winds 

Edited November 20, 2018 by inghams85

[northwestsnow]

Looking at GEFS postage stamps there is everything but the kitchen sink in there, zonal westerlies, uk highs, polar north westerlies and cold north easterlies..a real mixture..

Atlantic westerlies do appear to be favourite but nothing set in stone thats for sure!

 

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking at GEFS postage stamps there is everything but the kitchen sink in there, zonal westerlies, uk highs, polar north westerlies and cold north easterlies..a real mixture..

Atlantic westerlies do appear to be favourite but nothing set in stone thats for sure!

 

Unfortunately NWS  westerlies are the prevailing weather pattern for this part of the world. 

Edited November 20, 2018 by SteveB

[northwestsnow]

EC 168 a ridge from the azores...

 

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 168 a ridge from the azores...

 

I do remember replying to you the other day saying that

ECM day 8 now showing the same as JMA last night -

So - Scandi Iceland scandi for blocking ...

[Radiating Dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I do remember replying to you the other day saying that

ECM day 8 now showing the same as JMA last night -

So - Scandi Iceland scandi for blocking ...

I feel like this is where it all started at the beginning of this month. High to the east and trough to the west.

Just a nothing pattern of continual boredom.

[northwestsnow]

Excellent EC!!

[ICE COLD]

Yep a good ECM 00z . A continued continental feed for the whole run . Should feel nice and chilly / seasonal for the next 10 days . 

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent EC!!

It is rather good. Somehow though I'm expecting to see more despondent comments here this morning. Typically confusing for any unfortunate newbie  That said, hats off to those who said there'd be an improvement in modelled cold chances overnight. Whether that weather comes to fruition though is still to be decided. 

Edited November 20, 2018 by Seasonality

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent EC!!

NH profile agreed, UK cold however is further away. Deep cold way over in Russia! 

I feel like we are trying to squeeze frozen chocolate out a fairy liquid bottle at the moment! It’s hard going!

[Essexfish]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

NH profile agreed, UK cold however is further away. Deep cold way over in Russia! 

I feel like we are trying to squeeze frozen chocolate out a fairy liquid bottle at the moment! It’s hard going!

Thankfully it is only November...

[mb018538]

Very mixed messages all round. The AO forecasts are interesting!



Most are recovering back close to neutral, but there are a couple going the other way and off the scale!

[carinthian]

15 hours ago, carinthian said:

Picture taken earlier on route from village to the Gontal Valley. Current temp -7c in village and -10c on the Berg.The trough that produced the snow has moved away but the fine mesh model now showing a new pulse of snowfall by tomorrow morning about 5cm in addition to 5 cm earlier. A accumulated total of 11cm forecast by Wednesday morning. Update from the experts indicate little change from the previous forecast model for the next 10 days ( see above post). Longer term range 10-15days shows a build of pressure again over Scandinavia and lower pressure heights transferring from there in to Europe. So an increase in the chance of the UK flow to turn NEly during early Dec. So they seem to back a colder blocking situation to increase, especially as their model still has weaker than normal 300mb  jet wind , plus a split jet which should allow high pressure to dictate a more southerly track in any low pressure systems. Regarding the UK , any milder encroachment  looks likely to be repelled going by their single model but could produce some very interesting seasonal weather for SW Britain. 30% confidence level which really equated is moderate forecast confidence. Hope this helps. 

Morning all , another spell of snow arrived overnight. Think there is a bit more than 10cm accumulated snow in the village. Current temp -7C. Quick view at this mornings models and looks like an improvement from last nights regarding the hunt for cold, especially from ECM latest run. However, the pick again is the UKMO which has shown consistency in its runs out to 144t and that's to hold the colder scenario over much of your part of the world with the flow still backing. Will get an update from the forecast team over here later this morning regarding their further thoughts ( see above post ) for you guys and hopefully some pictures of the very welcome snowfall in these parts. All snow guns working as well for piste preparation that is now well under way. Time for my daily bacon and eggs, Yorkshire tea, which I bring back from blighty in great supplies. Continental tea, crap!

C

 

[northwestsnow]

EC looks dry and cold right through to day 10  this morning, bar some unsettled stuff today..

ens will perhaps reveal a bit more, i'd still be expecting quite a lot of variations but hopefully the signal to keep the Atlantic at bay has some support..

[That ECM]

This is of interest to me this morning. Maybe the block is not going to scandi as quick as ecm and gfs go on to show. IF that was to be the case then a northerly/ north easterly in 9/10 days time could be on the cards. Interesting times 

Edited November 20, 2018 by That ECM

[Ladyofthestorm]

GFS overplaying the role of the Atlantic, with a deep area of low pressure eroding into the high pushing it further east and north.

EC keeps feeding in the Easterly influence, Russia is being put into the deep freeze. 

The  850s on the 0z operational run way above the mean and individual run

Some runs AO suggest a return to neutral. But some  emsemble members are hitting rock bottom. 

The Arctic polar vortex still looks very preturbed, with any arm of the cold potentially  extending southwards. 

It is different this year. No doubt. Be patient. Winters coming. 

[carinthian]

34 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all , another spell of snow arrived overnight. Think there is a bit more than 10cm accumulated snow in the village. Current temp -7C. Quick view at this mornings models and looks like an improvement from last nights regarding the hunt for cold, especially from ECM latest run. However, the pick again is the UKMO which has shown consistency in its runs out to 144t and that's to hold the colder scenario over much of your part of the world with the flow still backing. Will get an update from the forecast team over here later this morning regarding their further thoughts ( see above post ) for you guys and hopefully some pictures of the very welcome snowfall in these parts. All snow guns working as well for piste preparation that is now well under way. Time for my daily bacon and eggs, Yorkshire tea, which I bring back from blighty in great supplies. Continental tea, crap!

C

 

Latest picture from the village. 

[Summer Sun]

Pretty good agreement up until around the 27th between the ECM op and ens thereafter we start to see the two differ as the op goes down to around -5 but the mean goes up to around +1

[karlos1983]

Forgive me for not feeling the optimism... the det was very much on the cold side of its members by the looks of it. the mean not looking cold for the majority of the uk at D10

 

[Standfree 1903]

4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Latest picture from the village. 

Any houses for sale,the missus want to retire abroad,somewhere hot,sure you get lovely summers there too,I just won’t mention the winters