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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA extended with Scandi block and dead Atlantic

JN264-21.GIF?19-12

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh dear.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111912_360.png

You have nothing to worry about with that clustering at 360. Almost 50% of the clusters go for some type of Scandinavian heights. With the huge climb in AAM and the MJO (as shown by NOAA) about to move into an highly amplified phase 7 or 8 I'd bet deeds to my house that first cluster will not come to pass. ECM is poor at picking up tropical signals. Patience is needed but for me the beginning of December and especially the middle look extremely positive to me. Steve Murr has called these correct. Oscillating Greenland/Scandinavian heights... 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

That’s actually a little better than earlier believe it or not, more going cold again. Nothing to get excited about but still...

12z

A66986AD-D321-471E-B1EB-0C6F90BA7F38.thumb.gif.352ca6cf4437a2d9b89740b95f991491.gif

00z

D5D51C81-0547-4578-9107-7C606FCB7B93.thumb.gif.82e3fb6c80dcff06e0f07550d075e370.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, inghams85 said:

You have nothing to worry about with that clustering at 360. Almost 50% of the clusters go for some type of Scandinavian heights. With the huge climb in AAM and the MJO (as shown by NOAA) about to move into an highly amplified phase 7 or 8 I'd bet deeds to my house that first cluster will not come to pass. ECM is poor at picking up tropical signals. Patience is needed but for me the beginning of December and especially the middle look extremely positive to me. Steve Murr has called these correct. Oscillating Greenland/Scandinavian heights... 

Not sure about ECM poor at picking up tropical signals TBH, its the tropical signals which drive the later reaches of the EPS, so surely they would verify worse than the GEFS if that was the case.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

That’s actually a little better than earlier believe it or not

12z

A66986AD-D321-471E-B1EB-0C6F90BA7F38.thumb.gif.352ca6cf4437a2d9b89740b95f991491.gif

00z

D5D51C81-0547-4578-9107-7C606FCB7B93.thumb.gif.82e3fb6c80dcff06e0f07550d075e370.gif

Yes, its quite a bit better TBH - did not expect that looking at the clusters.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
26 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I’m sticking with the more conservative but probably more likely ECWMF - which goes for some snowfall over the higher parts of England and Wales early Weds, tops of Downs in SE perhaps seeing wet snow too

 

 

D45464FD-7722-44AD-A8E4-BFEADA9400CA.png

My head tells me this is more likely too:

Clusters D9 - the colder cluster (3) has shrunk by half from this morning

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111912_216.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, its quite a bit better TBH - did not expect that looking at the clusters.

Same, when I saw your post I was fearing the worst and was surprised. Let’s hope we can build on that split again tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure about ECM poor at picking up tropical signals TBH, its the tropical signals which drive the later reaches of the EPS, so surely they would verify worse than the GEFS if that was the case.

GEFS have a bias to underdo the tropical signals and they show a marked rise. ECM is also conservative with these but not mas much. Both are poor in relative terms at that timescale. The best forecasters are us who read between the lines. What normally happens is closer to time these will factor in. I'll wager that clustering come 240 features more of a griveland high.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

My head tells me this is more likely too:

Clusters D9 - the colder cluster (3) has shrunk by half from this morning

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111912_216.

This backs up what I mean. Concentrate on this timeframe. If the tropics weren't looking so good on the face of things I would always wager the clusters but I think we'll see the extended ensembles swing closer to timeframe to more and more blocked outlooks

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
1 hour ago, jules216 said:

@nick sussex I know you would like to hear this, today update from NOAA:

The MJO slowed down and weakened over the past few days, partly due to interference with both the base state and a strong equatorial Rossby wave over the West Pacific.  Dynamical model MJO index forecasts depict continued robust MJO activity during the next two weeks. The GEFS forecasts indicate a high amplitude event crossing the Pacific during Week-1 and the Western Hemisphere during Week-2, while the ECMWF has a faster propagating and less amplified event. Statistical guidance also supports robust MJO activity.  As the MJO enhanced phase crosses the Pacific, it will begin constructively interfering with the base state that is transitioning towards El Niño conditions.  The MJO is likely to play a role in tropical-extratropical teleconnections over the next several weeks. A high amplitude Pacific MJO event tends to favor a transition to a negative NAO pattern and colder conditions over the eastern CONUS, which is fairly consistent with long range dynamical model forecasts

 

I think its better news then worse, no?

@feb1991blizzard this sums things up what I'm saying. The NOAA are excellent at not taking things at face value. They also anticipate the same MJO activity I do. It's a watching brief mate

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

And for those who might need help with interpreting those panels....?

All clusters feature a 500mb flow from either the West or the South West.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

@feb1991blizzard this sums things up what I'm saying. The NOAA are excellent at not taking things at face value. They also anticipate the same MJO activity I do. It's a watching brief mate

It is definitely a watching brief as there is massive interest in the Northern hemisphere pattern going into winter proper, i am swinging towards no flow that would bring us deep cold within the next 15-20 days though, its all very well having knowledge of all those things but forecasting is about who gets it right more often that not, not whose analysis is longest.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

18Z swingometers

image.thumb.png.1ccda51f8f9b1d9db7597af2bf2fafd1.png

Darn a bit of bad news for this ensemble set unfortunately, November 25th as you were... temperatures slightly below average

For the start of December?

image.thumb.png.0fb55ca84f873b9464dc1bc536c9af91.png

Looks rather poor, the mid time range outlook is swinging back to mild again. However its called a swingometer for a reason and a few cold runs in there still give me some hope but mild looks to be the form horse at the moment. Still a fair bit of uncertainty though. Op run falls into the mild category.

Here for reference is the temperature anomaly forecast for next Sunday, seasonal at least but only small pockets of well below average temperatures at the moment. Global temperatures 0.46C above the LTA despite the low solar activity.

ANOM2m_f162_equir.png

UK not in the right place for the moment. We may need to be a bit more patient but there is still potential I think for things to change for the better in December. I believe the WAA into NE Canada and Western Greenland could reap some rewards but first we need to get rid of high pressure over Spain if it forms.

El Nino winters tend to be backloaded so I will take anything we get early into the winter season as a most welcome bonus  

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is definitely a watching brief as there is massive interest in the Northern hemisphere pattern going into winter proper, i am swinging towards no flow that would bring us deep cold within the next 15-20 days though, its all very well having knowledge of all those things but forecasting is about who gets it right more often that not, not whose analysis is longest.

Me too..

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is definitely a watching brief as there is massive interest in the Northern hemisphere pattern going into winter proper, i am swinging towards no flow that would bring us deep cold within the next 15-20 days though, its all very well having knowledge of all those things but forecasting is about who gets it right more often that not, not whose analysis is longest.

I never said it was who's analysis is longest I'm just giving my opinion. I'm sure catacol and Tamara/GP would have something more to add to this but my opinion is charts this time next week will look very different as the models aren't factoring in the tropical changes just yet. We'll just have to see.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Some mixed signals from the model output into the medium range still, 12z EC and GFS operationals differ after the weekend in where to drift the block which is near Iceland at the weekend.

Like its 00z predecessor the EC op drifts the block back over Scandi then Baltic States - which eventually allows the Atlantic parent low to muscle back in over the UK. Whilst both 12z and 18z GFS drift the block way west eventually into NE Canada, bides more time before the Atlantic trough eventually merges with low heights to the NE and pulls lows NE over the UK.

Either way, it doesn't really get the deep cold to the N and NE south to where we want it .. over us.

The differing tropical signals comparing EC and GFS, i.e. MJO forecasts, perhaps leading to these differences in the medium range with the block movement, though ultimately it leads to low pressure over the Atlantic having too much influence eventually to get deep cold anywhere near enough to tap into. Still, given the differences, can't rule out further changes, perhaps for the better, in the medium range, but for now, we're edging further and further away from the pot of gold to the NE.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Obervation needs to by observed here!.

Its angular momentum,..at it best (crucial)..

The flow an-ebb are in good sequence!!..

With the now aligned seaboard/PAC-forcucing 'noted'!

Understanding'the 4 major part upper forcing..will be of major factor!..

As we enjoy the chase...so does the atmospheric-weiging of science!!.

Its hold ,n' fold folks..

With upper organise mid level peaking joining in..

Crack your walnut shells...and as the crave unfolds...you'll enjoy the meat/opening as an-acheive!..

All- phasing is a blocky...non-mobility script..

And forcing and slanting..is pointing to a desired winter...4 those whom crave'that.

Deciphering- supporting synops-and deliberations!!!..

My conclusion..begins to lay-firmly with fmo

/french met-o...

With other LRF- MODS. Slowly of align.

Gfs/ecmwf/ukmo/cmc(support) para..to name the most..

Are RAW A-DATA with chucking support via ens' scupple!!..

To what is a fantastic 'public analysis'...

But meteorologicaly speaking..

Decipher dictates a tad more...

A NOTABKE WINTER BEKONS-IMO..

WITH MASSIVE JUMPS..FROM DAWN 2 DARK IN BETWEEN!!!

@ memorable!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

 

Its hold ,n' fold folks..

With upper organise mid level peaking joining in..

Crack your walnut shells...and as the crave unfolds...you'll enjoy the meat

I'm trying to decipher your riddle/post but maybe there is some questions I shouldn't ask 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
1 hour ago, Mucka said:

JMA extended with Scandi block and dead Atlantic

JN264-21.GIF?19-12

This is the route I think - but it may be hurrying it along a bit fast as NWP tends to. A few days later...but more of an atlantic trough in the mix and a signal for retrogression through towards end of the first third of the month.

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I'm trying to decipher your riddle/post but maybe there is some questions I shouldn't ask 

..

Crack on bud..

Im sure i can answer your- devolutions!.

May 'it be molescular/thermodymanical..

Intent-atmospheric infer...

Or /other..

Im open for debatable discuss.pal!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Can/have we opened- a technical thread??!.

As i feel some the need to chuck-sake the knowledge of some.

And offer some exactions/understandings!

??!! I'd like 2 indulge with some tbh!!??

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
14 minutes ago, Catacol said:

This is the route I think - but it may be hurrying it along a bit fast as NWP tends to. A few days later...but more of an atlantic trough in the mix and a signal for retrogression through towards end of the first third of the month.

Absolutely agreed mate. Far too many taking models at first value rather than factoring in some more background and tropical signals. Im confident.

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