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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It can't be long now, until 'Big Joe' makes his annual utterance? Brutal winter coming up, no doubt?⏳

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS 18z is a photo finish between cold Arctic air pushing S and mild Atlantic air pushing NW over the UK

gfsnh-0-180.png?18gfsnh-1-180.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Nope, it's blown that low into a bowling ball, even after it was disrupting.  T180:

image.thumb.jpg.8c658d3a1a6d1fe48a4636e829090b5f.jpg

Will eat my underpants if that verifies...

It could verify,no s**t

two scenario's i have seen from across the board is that we get a northerly/northeasterly with ridge building behind=cold or we could see the trough to our west throwing a ridge into Scandi=cold

a win win situation,well i hope.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Think if the two lows merge to our north, this could be a horror show!

If they phase a little further S and E it would be Winter wonderland assuming we got the Atlantic blocking and Arctic high we see here.

gfsnh-0-210.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

gfsnh-0-180.png?18

 

Got the Lower Heights over Northern Italy now and interesting that all fragments of PV on the right side of the globe from our perspective.Still not a bad position to be in the last days of AUTUMN!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

BLIZZARDS - in Iceland 

gfsnh-0-222.png?18

But then again that low doesn't blow up and phases with the upper trough further W and Bingo! 

What could possibly go wrong...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Hotspur61 said:

gfsnh-0-180.png?18

 

Got the Lower Heights over Northern Italy now and interesting that all fragments of PV on the right side of the globe from our perspective.Still not a bad position to be in the last days of AUTUMN!!

Yes, thats what i said in my last post, looks a stonker and a very unusual pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

BLIZZARDS - in Iceland 

gfsnh-0-222.png?18

But then again that low doesn't blow up and phases with the upper trough further W and Bingo! 

What could possibly go wrong...

Something that has already happened by this point!

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

The phrase loaded gun comes to mind the AO on the 18z GFS is though the floor huge Arctic high.

Screenshot_20181119-224138.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

The phrase loaded gun comes to mind the AO on the 18z GFS is though the floor huge Arctic high.

Screenshot_20181119-224138.png

Think those horrid horrid heights across Spain are going to be the killer as with EC..

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Will wait to see the T2m anomalys (much later) to see what mean flow is expected 

@bluearmyto me looks like displaced azores/bartlett high towards UK/IEimage.thumb.png.d6b47296ab75ba47b63ec8aaa734f4e8.png

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think those horrid horrid heights across Spain are going to be the killer as with EC..

Yeah definitely on this run but it's not the actual weather we end up with that's getting me interested is the blocking over the pole. If this persists is a matter of time before we hit the jackpot or at least have a decent shot at it.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Well with all the blocking going on punching the pv,something has to give.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Sounds daft but i would snap your hand off for the 18z - If that or anything like it verifies, we are really onto something for winter proper, don't worry about the NE'ly failing.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm really getting into the minor models tonight - our old friend the HIRLAM is on the case for snow in the south tomorrow night

hirlamuk-1-30-0.png?19-22

I’m sticking with the more conservative but probably more likely ECWMF - which goes for some snowfall over the higher parts of England and Wales early Weds, tops of Downs in SE perhaps seeing wet snow too

 

 

D45464FD-7722-44AD-A8E4-BFEADA9400CA.png

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

As much a I like a cold wintery scene 

With the 18z anything could happen after T+168 hrs.

We could end up with a cooler Atlantic low with long spells of rain topping up the nation's reservoirs. 

I've just drove over high ground in North Yorkshire where I live 4.oC and heavy sleet.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
17 minutes ago, booferking said:

The height push from Spain locate is a pain on the backside.

Yes two forces at work here, high pressure building through into Iberia, but also increasingly colder upper pool developing to our NE putting a force on heights over Iceland with cold air advection enabling them to transfer to the NW, which one gains the upper hand will dictate the path of the trough/low formation over the atlantic. If heights build NE through Spain this will prevent the low from anchoring on a more southerly disruptive trajectory, and we end up with a SW fetch, conversely if the cold air to the NE exerts greater influence it will force the slider/disruption and we end up in a cold NE airflow.

Will have to watch this one play out.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Sounds daft but i would snap your hand off for the 18z - If that or anything like it verifies, we are really onto something for winter proper, don't worry about the NE'ly failing.

Yep the blocking on this run is outrageous. Doesn’t deliver anything , but the pv is smashed up . And there’s a gfs special to the north of us at T 360 . 

3167AA68-9A58-4134-A5AD-3BEEA4313F60.png

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