The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Skullzrulerz]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

But UKMO > all as it was the only one that had the icelandic high retrograde when ECM / GFS sunk the high

Anyway watch over the next day or so as things improve to a colder & colder outlook..

@Sardonixs Thats 00z

No offence to you so please don't take this the wrong the UKMO is really the only model at current (ECM GFS slowly following that way) that sounds a way to colder conditions 

It could still go either way through I'm all the way for the colder outlook 

[Sardonixs]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

But UKMO > all as it was the only one that had the icelandic high retrograde when ECM / GFS sunk the high

Anyway watch over the next day or so as things improve to a colder & colder outlook..

@Sardonixs Thats 00z

No its 12z but only have clusters for 252 hours instead of 240 for some reason..

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

No offence to you so please don't take this the wrong the UKMO is really the only model at current (ECM GFS slowly following that way) that sounds a way to colder conditions 

It could still go either way through I'm all the way for the colder outlook 

No offence at all

We of course need all 3 on board however I would certainly advocate the UKMOs evolution over & above the others progressive nature at the moment as based on the last week or so everytime the progressive them has transitioned from 168 -120 there has been regression to a slower theme with more blocking

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

We’ll never get agreement on all 3 models in complex non-zonal situations like this November. It’s a case of keeping tuned to see how the cold pool develops to our NE and starts to influence the undercutting of the lows from the SW.

Edited November 19, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Some times I step in here and think its the ' I don't like cold so I'm going to annoy people who do thread...

I don't care if its 384 hours away and as likely to verify as me winning the lottery that's my whole reason for being in here  

Anyway back to the models and as Steve has pointed out I wouldn't be surprised to see the cold runs upgrade as we move towards the next 24 hrs. 

I just think we are at the stage where we have been all year since the SSW it's a matter of when not if. 

Then again if it dosent come off this time I will still watch every single chart come out till I'm blue in the face.. 

Happy hunting.. See you for the 18z. 

I love cold, snowy weather. Always have. But what annoys me more than anything-else is being promised Snowmageddon, only to be greeted with rain, gales and 11C! Aaaaargh!!

Let the snow cold hunt continue? 

[northwestsnow]

Not a great EC mean it has to be said..

And thats probably being generous..

Edited November 19, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

The 12z ECM op and mean once again is pretty close through-out on the 850's

[WINTRY WALES]

30 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No offence at all

We of course need all 3 on board however I would certainly advocate the UKMOs evolution over & above the others progressive nature at the moment as based on the last week or so everytime the progressive them has transitioned from 168 -120 there has been regression to a slower theme with more blocking

Hey Steve

Did you mention earlier that you was releasing your winter forecast this evening?? If so will that be in your own thread you began a little while back?

cheers

[SMU]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Hey Steve

Did you mention earlier that you was releasing your winter forecast this evening?? If so will that be in your own thread you began a little while back?

cheers

It will be a new thread @ 20:30 in general..

so about 10 mins... thanks

[weatherguy]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The 12z ECM op and mean once again is pretty close through-out on the 850's

Must be noted that despite the doom and gloom (understandable, given the eye candy we've been treated to in the past couple of weeks in FI), a mean never really getting above 0c at 850hpa still signals a largely blocked setup with no typically zonal weather for the time of year.  

[Johnp]

37 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

No offence to you so please don't take this the wrong the UKMO is really the only model at current (ECM GFS slowly following that way) that sounds a way to colder conditions 

It could still go either way through I'm all the way for the colder outlook 

Navgem is great tonight.  Not the best model,  but it’s not true to say UKMO is the only one showing cold.

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Not liking the look of EC longer term..

Try again tomorrow then, it’ll be all change.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Try again tomorrow then, it’ll be all change.

Hope so John

[tight isobar]

AT-az-ridging..was after the miss dynamics..going to be order of the day.

as mass circular (raw) strat bullying became the order!!.

chucking such large scale complexities(waving) and the chuck of outed polar vortex-modeling,notes the swing and decipher ops-ens and paywall outs- and the like the swing and sway-from eye 2 eye..

and lets be reasonable..even myself was sucked in!!.

'however'-..seriously the nor-hem situ is of alarm by the way of non-usual!!!

and  gain has left*shirt term" only 2 be replaced by LARGE-synoptics given gain..

1-point missed...4 points 2 gain.

angular momentum has drafted and been spiteful..

but only on this occasion!..

wave act-and the initial momentum thats teased..has in fact 'further ramped up' the point -and destruct...

its classical wave activity that goes as clockwork- with gain...and sypher!

and this creates model 'divergence'..

aligned 4 way structures and-or destruction..along with concise raw model viewing...

divergence is as massive as it has ever been....

 

Ozz suites..i think take these as-a pin-pointer..

Eps!! Block/squeeze refer!!

Edit;.

A switch in the 18z suite is a likely sceanario/scenarios..

For pre-block..height- annoms!!

Edited November 19, 2018 by tight isobar

[summer blizzard]

Not sure myself which solution will win out and at day 7 it actually looks the UKMO is about to screw us given the angle of the high pressure over Spain. 

But out to day 7 at least we have a more or less solid cool/cold easterly flow and the UKMO in particular would have cool upper on the way since the trough penetrates east enough to draw air from Denmark. 

[Hotspur62]

Amazing how Models are diverging even in the ST but makes it all the more interesting.Over the last 8 years since i have been on the brilliant NW Forums i always feel statistically that the UKMO at T+144 is the most consistent and close to the mark(just going from memory here before i get shot down and my memory not the best lol).Hope it is on the money tonight as if it is i think it is a good route to colder weather for last few days of November into early December 

[northwestsnow]

To add to the disappointing EC mean longer term the beeb really becoming bullish about the Atlantic moving in..

Dont shoot the messenger!

[Methuselah]

24 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Navgem is great tonight.  

So it's curtains then?

[LightningLover]

Who else remembers when NAVGEM modelled 40c temperatures across the SE in July...? Could you imagine if it started spewing out -20c isotherm-galore charts lol

[Team Jo]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

To add to the disappointing EC mean longer term the beeb really becoming bullish about the Atlantic moving in..

Dont shoot the messenger!

<steps out of topic for one post>

That would correlate with the bbc getting their weather info from Meteo group which I believe predominantly use the EC suite for data and forecasting though. Met office lost the contract last year, so personally I take to their (the met o) YouTube channel for what I feel is a more rounded set of info. There’s some threads on it kicking around in general weather discussion.

<steps back into topic> 

 

[Johnp]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So it's curtains then?

I did say it’s not a good model, but hey crop the quote!

[The Eagle]

It does look as though on this particular occasion it's probably not happening for us or at least that seems to be the broad model concensus. 

Plenty of twists and turns to come. Winter hasn't even started yet.

Edited November 19, 2018 by The Eagle

[Nick F]

While we wait for the 18z to come out ... thought I would step back in time and on this date back in November 1985 showed it's not too early in the season to get some deep cold from the east, brought 2-5cm of snow to Kent and East Sussex by the 20th.

Similar set-up today, just not the depth of cold from the east ...

Lots of similarities to November 1985 atm in the charts.

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

<steps out of topic for one post>

That would correlate with the bbc getting their weather info from Meteo group which I believe predominantly use the EC suite for data and forecasting though. Met office lost the contract last year, so personally I take to their (the met o) YouTube channel for what I feel is a more rounded set of info. There’s some threads on it kicking around in general weather discussion.

<steps back into topic> 

 

Thanks Jo

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All ... operational models just showing how difficult northern blocking is hard to predict...very interesting viewing...