The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[ICE COLD]

ECM T168 . 

[That ECM]

Nice let’s get here then take it from there. T144 is far enough for now for me.

Edited November 19, 2018 by That ECM

[Mucka]

Naturally GFS decides heights aren't going to drop SE so ECM decides it will pick up the baton through today though much more cut off and further N. If ECM is right then Scandi high would be the next great white(snow) hope.

Edited November 19, 2018 by Mucka

[Purga]

Yes please Matron!

Seriously though, there are a good few cold options to play for - as well as mild of course.

An interesting evolution to say the least and a welcome change from the usual zonal grundge.

Edited November 19, 2018 by Purga

[nick sussex]

Oh dear what a drama ! 

Hard to know what’s going to happen , the ECM wants to go the more Scandi high route . Interestingly heights are a bit lower to the se than on earlier runs.  

[Mucka]

JMA siding with ECM but a little better.

[Summer Sun]

ECM still going for the low pressure to our west and high pressure to the east

[Met4Cast]

Yesterday I had a conversation with someone on here (can’t remember who) and they stated the GEFS were “solid” on no cold. Well.. 

One day later and they’re once again not solid on anything. Nice clutering on the cold side but probably about an equal number on the warmer side, too. 

Steps towards a better outcome across the board today.

[northwestsnow]

Not liking the look of EC longer term..

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Oh dear what a drama ! 

Hard to know what’s going to happen , the ECM wants to go the more Scandi high route . Interestingly heights are a bit lower to the se than on earlier runs.  

Yeah I always favoured the GFS 12z route and thought the ECM might go that way this evening but nope!

It is interesting GFS dabbled with the ECM route yesterday before dropping it today so either GFS has sniffed day 7+ out before ECM or it is having a bad day.

Edited November 19, 2018 by Mucka

[SMU]

So earlier we discussed where the next high pressure would come from -

Building over Scandi in situ- ECM expected to be to progressive -

UKMO/ JMA blend better

JMA will be saying no to the atlantic 

Also mentioned earlier was cold uppers building in situ

Note the JMA 180-192 over the continent to the SE

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not liking the look of EC longer term..

I wouldn’t worry about the long term too much, if that scandi high sets up, I’ll bet my bottom dollar it won’t finish like that!

if anything the ECM is very encouraging indeed! Big step toward the UKMO!

[Stuie]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So earlier we discussed where the next high pressure would come from -

Building over Scandi in situ- ECM expected to be to progressive -

UKMO/ JMA blend better

JMA will be saying no to the atlantic 

Also mentioned earlier was cold uppers building in situ

Note the JMA 180-192 over the continent to the SE

Well as things are starting to become `interesting` I thought I would come out of hibernation.....

And then I see the JMA being posted, Steve.... thought this was only pulled out as a last chance saloon...

[blizzard81]

42 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Noting tonight ECM how its backed that shallow feature back East over the last 2 days ( All those moaning about the shortwave spoiler saying how amazing the ECM was ) - its fully transitioned to the UKMO

2 images below - 120 tonight v 168 2 days ago

The spoiler biscay low I pointed out days ago has counted down perfectly on the ecm. Still there at T48 - see chart attached. None of the other models spotted this until much nearer the time - especially the gfs parallel which is why it kept on showing those dream like winter nirvana runs. 

[Weather-history]

 

[Tim Bland]

Even the JMA is a downgrade on yesterday’s run. Struggling to see the positives if I’m honest. Fingers crossed for better tomorrow 

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The spoiler biscay low I pointed out days ago has counted down perfectly on the ecm. Still there at T48 - see chart attached. None of the other models spotted this until much nearer the time - especially the gfs parallel which is why it kept on showing those dream like winter nirvana runs. 

However you omitted the bit about insisting it would stop any form of continental flow following on behind when clearly thats changed towards what was forecast as opposed to whats being observed from the former model suites

Ever so slowly me are moving back into a nice position- UKMO / NAVGEM & JMA all great tonight - the 2 more progressive models ECM & GFS slow to come on board-

S

Edited November 19, 2018 by Steve Murr

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

However you omitted the bit about insisting it would stop any form of continental flow following on behind when clearly thats changed towards what was forecast as opposed to whats being observed -

I said it would stop the frigid air to our north east coming to our shores which is what the gfs parallel persistently showed on it's ops. I termed it as the battle royale between the ecm (which didn't once show those frigid uppers heading our way - due to the spoiler low) and the gfs p which got some people's hopes up. The ecm won that battle. 

[Sardonixs]

GFS Clusters, 25% go for something along the lines of the op at day 10, 15% something closer to the ECM

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I said it would stop the frigid air to our north east coming to our shores which is what the gfs parallel persistently showed on it's ops. I termed it as the battle royale between the ecm (which didn't once show those frigid uppers heading our way - due to the spoiler low) and the gfs p which got some people's hopes up. The ecm won that battle. 

But UKMO > all as it was the only one that had the icelandic high retrograde when ECM / GFS sunk the high

Anyway watch over the next day or so as things improve to a colder & colder outlook..

@Sardonixs Thats 00z

Edited November 19, 2018 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

19 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well as things are starting to become `interesting` I thought I would come out of hibernation.....

And then I see the JMA being posted, Steve.... thought this was only pulled out as a last chance saloon...

Just showing how cold pools can develop in situ-

not really using that model per say unless it follows UKMO @144-

UKMO 168 - NE flow over the UK

 

[Ladyofthestorm]

Charts all over the place, ensembles sitting on the fence. Polar vortex disturbed. No wonder they can't agree. 

Little wonder the METO says there is no clear signal from the medium to long range. 

It's a case of when not if and how much. 

 

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

However you omitted the bit about insisting it would stop any form of continental flow following on behind when clearly thats changed towards what was forecast as opposed to whats being observed from the former model suites

Ever so slowly me are moving back into a nice position- UKMO / NAVGEM & JMA all great tonight - the 2 more progressive models ECM & GFS slow to come on board-

S

Thank the Lord peeps are only arguing over what the models say, and when (changing one's socks comes to mind?) and not what the real weather might do. Phew!

[ALL ABOARD]

Some times I step in here and think its the ' I don't like cold so I'm going to annoy people who do thread...

I don't care if its 384 hours away and as likely to verify as me winning the lottery that's my whole reason for being in here  

Anyway back to the models and as Steve has pointed out I wouldn't be surprised to see the cold runs upgrade as we move towards the next 24 hrs. 

I just think we are at the stage where we have been all year since the SSW it's a matter of when not if. 

Then again if it dosent come off this time I will still watch every single chart come out till I'm blue in the face.. 

Happy hunting.. See you for the 18z. 

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I said it would stop the frigid air to our north east coming to our shores which is what the gfs parallel persistently showed on it's ops. I termed it as the battle royale between the ecm (which didn't once show those frigid uppers heading our way - due to the spoiler low) and the gfs p which got some people's hopes up. The ecm won that battle. 

This is just one example of many. Last Friday's 12z gfs parallel and ecm runs at T120 for this coming weds. The difference is quite stark and unfortunately the ecm came up trumps.