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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Everything is a good 300-400 miles South on this run compared to the earlier run, that’s exactly the trend me want to see continuing!

6z

E5D9A1B2-E89B-455A-B7FF-9C4C167F713C.thumb.png.a7fe7007406957e6f691e42a4aa5e0df.png

12z

A5BD6317-EFE4-43C9-B611-F07008F87E55.thumb.png.c4f7300265318d042d366933175c2c6e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Nice to look at but could be a fairly shortlived 'toppler'.  Cracking NH profile at this point though!

gfsnh-0-234.png?12

As Daniel said, this southerly trend is very much what we want to see (if cold is your thing!).

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

There’s nothing standard about the northern hemisphere pattern as the moment! No PV Tom our north west and an abundance of high pressure over Greenland beignreokenished by heights over Canada. That pattern is prime for a ridge behind a low and the cold to flood south. Certainly not a standard zonal pattern 

 

CEAD4330-4630-41C9-AB3E-2D031EE02075.png

I wasn't talking about the NH pattern, and Cold air being dragged in from the north around a low is nothing new nor is it the easterly people where originally looking for.

The low has tracked further south on this run, the ensemble will show us how much backing this has. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, Ice Day said:

Nice to look at but could be a fairly shortlived 'toppler'.  Cracking NH profile at this point though!

gfsnh-0-234.png?12

As Daniel said, this southerly trend is very much what we want to see (if cold is your thing!).

Hello 'cold is my thing' but a southern shift on the 12Z doesn't mean this is a new trend, it could quite possible move even further north on the 18Z. Have to say the Atlantic does seem to be more influential than it has been in the past few weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Transient roaring NE’ly at day 9/10 on the GFS but we have a real problem with that strong arm of the jet much earlier, the high pressure is trying to break down the area of low pressure and disrupt it but the jet is too powerful and too much energy is marching through. 

We all know how complicated the relationship between high pressure and low pressure in that region of the Atlantic is so just as I wouldn’t count any chickens if things were showing cold I would say things are far from signed sealed and delivered yet, and even if it is the vortex is looking dazed, hopefully won’t get off the canvas any time soon

 

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

gfs-0-300.png?12

And the topple is complete Short lived northerly, due to a passing depression which on this run is modeled a bit further south then  height building to the south over Europe to start the process of again. 

The overall pattern for the NH is mixed

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham
  • Location: Cheltenham
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

At least we have continuity on the posts no confusion whatsoever for new persons visiting lol. 

Reasons to be happy, UKMO holds firm and the GFS does to me look better at 144 this afternoon. If we were talking the other way round I’d be worried!

over to you ECM

 

Or old persons.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
5 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Hello 'cold is my thing' but a southern shift on the 12Z doesn't mean this is a new trend, it could quite possible move even further north on the 18Z. Have to say the Atlantic does seem to be more influential than it has been in the past few weeks.

1

Of course, however it could move even further south???  Who knows, that's why we keep returning .This is the 'hunt for cold' thread after all, so we will be looking for improvements for cold prospects 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Just now, karlos1983 said:

We need the laughing and confused emoji back!

These ones?:oldrofl::unknw:

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
4 minutes ago, matt111 said:

These ones?:oldrofl::unknw:

No try these..

:whistling::unknw::gathering:

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Today is one of those days some would wish the UKMO went out up to 192 hours or something (lol), just to see for sure how that Atlantic Low would behave. Kinda does have a bit of a slider or undercutting feel about it. Suppose it’s crucial to have that Icelandic High exert as much pressure on that devious Low as possible (without the ridging over South-Western Europe getting in the way) to stop the Low causing trouble for the cold weather fans. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
11 minutes ago, matt111 said:

These ones?

No no Sorry, I meant the reactions, we get like and thanks now. We used to have a few and I’m struggling to express myself sufficiently

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
Just now, karlos1983 said:

No no Sorry, I meant the reactions, we get like and thanks now. We used to have a few and I’m struggling to express myself sufficiently

Some people apparently couldn't use them in an efficient manner, that's why they're gone, correct me if I'm wrong

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Just now, CheesepuffScott said:

Some people apparently couldn't use them in an efficient manner, that's why they're gone, correct me if I'm wrong

To put it bluntly, yes that’s why. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

That’s  13 days away and will chop and change the trend is looking good for colder weather..

That's true. But the super blizzards and mass disruption charts were 15 days out?

Anyway, everything I'm seeing backs up the Met's take on things: that the probability of very cold air coming from the north is, at present, best considered as slight...That said, I still maintain that the current pattern is very reminiscent of times gone by. In other words, it's best we wait till at least mid-December for any real prospects of Snowmageddon...

Netweather GFS Image

RIP, The Large Teapot!:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

UKMO looking ok with the trough disruption just a little further south than GFS at T144hrs.

It is the weakening of heights further north which is now creating an interesting borderline setup over the coming weekend with that colder air lurking just to our north.

UN144-7.GIF?19-17

The evolution from there i think hinges somewhat on another ridge building into NE Canada.If this inflates further east into Greenland than currently shown on GFS then we will see that cold air coming down towards the UK and the jet going further south than shown in later GFS.

 

.

An interesting an important point about the heights over Canada. I think in order to see a decent trough over western Europe we need to see heights rising towards Canada or for the HP to shift much further west. Unfortunately the low pressure in the Atlantic is preventing that from happening and therefore is allowing for more energy to build in western to north western Greenland in the later stages of the run.

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