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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
2 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Got to say that is an BOOM chart as low is heading under and the cold air is poised to our northeast. Thank god it’s the most consistent model atm 

Gem looks better than them all at 96hr.

gem-0-96.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could we see better nibble from the east-northeast on this run?

Netweather GFS Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

I very much like the look of the UKMO at 144 - another example of the PV draining away from Canada/Greenland.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

If we can get to this stage, fun and games could begin!?

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

lurvley UKMO today

Easterly all the way through except day 4 which is SE

144- no west based NAOs - just a very healthy block & cold creeping SW around the base-

No issues with spoiler lows..

CE0DFA04-E334-4C12-B3D6-F27B65789125.thumb.png.3fdeacaa47530dc91d451d508699ec5e.png

And yet the Cold to the north east will stay to the east, the jet is pointing in the wrong direction, yeah its split but its also going west to east around the top and bottom. 

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

C64BA5C6-03A8-40C7-A7BC-099925E4D49D.thumb.png.434477401c76cb2a26550ed80278be07.png

GFS at 144hrs. 

Still big differences on the shape of that low. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

C64BA5C6-03A8-40C7-A7BC-099925E4D49D.thumb.png.434477401c76cb2a26550ed80278be07.png

GFS at 144hrs. 

Still big differences on the shape of that low. 

Yes, but the GFS Op is finally, finally grasping that the Atlantic low will disrupt. It is about 48 hours behind the Meto as ever. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

UKMO looks bang tidy at D6

630D0033-B6C8-4C7E-A21A-8AB31BD78252.thumb.gif.35a628587f56da97b346d2697b5c78ca.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its not as flat as you think - there would be enough inflection to filter the deep cold SW- but we are talking 168 through to 192..

If the jet was just west east the high pressure & low wouldnt be driving cold southwards-

image.thumb.png.4ca6d21de064180eed6aaf2bcea921c5.png

What we are seeing is the Jet take the Red route, what we want is the Jet taking the Black route, or the low to drop down over the UK further West which would pull the colder air with it.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Which party?

gfs-5-192.png?12

Can not see the Cold air advocating west against that Jet.

The cold air that’s moving into Scotland? That cold air? 

7C605102-3B29-4A52-BA05-D58D16F225D0.thumb.png.c8154b9ced5bb0d538f15408fcb0ccfe.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Just now, frosty ground said:

Which party?

gfs-5-192.png?12

Can not see the Cold air advocating west against that Jet.

But it's the GFS, by this stage it's already ramping up the jet in line with its logarithms. It is simply continuing to be wrong post T+120

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.b46f7162a895f35bf4d0358de0e73255.png

What shall win? the cold to the north or the mild air to the SW? The stronger the Greenland high the better our chances of getting some decent cold uppers, as alluded to yesterday. Some 06z ens members did get that cold down to us by next week so this may be some time before it gets decided

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The cold air that’s moving into Scotland? That cold air? 

7C605102-3B29-4A52-BA05-D58D16F225D0.thumb.png.c8154b9ced5bb0d538f15408fcb0ccfe.png

The cold air that looks, at least for wee while, to be shunted northwards by the Atlantic depression?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Just now, Ed Stone said:

The cold air that looks, at least for wee while, to be shunted northwards by the Atlantic depression?

Netweather GFS Image

nope - to be wrapped around and dragged south

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

So Gfs show snow for North England and Scotland with that low tracking across and yes there is plenty of cold air close by not sure why post after post going on about the cold air being to far away it's not and its moving South with every run.

Screenshot_20181119-163727_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181119-163715_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, andymusic said:

nope - to be wrapped around and dragged south

Yep here it comes . 

1B5C651E-F1C5-41F2-8B0D-F6A5A345DD6D.png

62A09996-88FC-4B45-82D5-97668EF28895.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Doesn’t look very displaced to me?

AFD9C187-131B-434A-9485-294FE0231DC6.thumb.png.bb13678d5e539b756c289d90207d9aa7.png

Blocking increasing, cold end to the run incoming. Fantastic run from the GFS and now more inline with the other models, still key differences at 144 to be ironed out, however. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

nope - to be wrapped around and dragged south

Like I said: for a wee while...

Netweather GFS Image

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