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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs models  keen on developing the scandi high again (transient???) ...... ec op joins in. .......given the uncertainty, I guess we may as well go with it for the time being !

Transient looking at this run but as you say, and Steve M mentions a rebuild of Scandy heights is the next straw to clutch , all early days though. 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Transient looking at this run but as you say, and Steve M mentions a rebuild of Scandy heights is the next straw to clutch , all early days though. 

Funnily enough, the broad message of the extended clusters days 11/12 last evening were in this ball park .... and they didn’t all lead to Euro high 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Through the mist people should be starting to put the jigsaw together-  Scandi / Iceland / Scandi oscillations- becoming ever colder...

We are set for Winter - Winter forecast out later tonight.... 

Hope so Steve. To me it just looks like a slow transition back to the norm. Let's hope something get's pulled out of the ether.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The GFS is so so close to getting there and then it blows up a dartboard low instead, it has the trough disrupting and low elongating at 144, now quite as much as the UKMO but it's there

144GFS.thumb.png.77de9fe5b013322118ffa22b22feaa41.png

Then it goes and does this

1684869932_GFS192.thumb.png.050aea8ca3796928b5b3f0987cb51db4.png

ECM similar though perhaps a little less disruption and definitely far more progressive with moving the low E/NE into the UK, something we've seen a lot from the ECM so far this season. 

It's 50/50 to me, once the low starts disrupting (which all models currently show) I can't see it then suddenly blowing up and becoming a dartboard low, it just doesn't tend to happen that way in reality. 

Given the ops are struggling to resolve this, the EPS/ENS are next to useless in this situation because the whole pattern pivots based on this low pressure system.

Yeah i kind of agree about the high res ops struggling but the mean by day 9/10 is pretty bad, i guess we will have a better idea in another 48 hours or so, would want to see some kind of change in the mean sharpish though-(more colder outcomes)..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

There’s two issues with today’s outputs .

The bloated low to the west which refuses to disrupt and the high trying to edge ne into Spain .

Unless there’s more trough disruption any Scandi high will just be delaying the inevitable as energy spills over the top .

That could still change let’s hope it does!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Hope so. A week ago people were foaming at the mouth about this little cold pool heading our way at the beginning of this week saying that the model forecast maxes of 6-8c were completely wrong and we would see some snowfall in places. Models were spot on. Dusting over high ground, nothing more than grey and chilly at lower levels.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne

MO have called this to be fair. Short lived scandi high then milder. Let's just hope they're right about it turning colder again towards mid december!

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
47 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thats only if you take the poor GFS suite at face value - which many do on here.

Weather Enthusiast - follows models & interpretes what they show

Weather forecaster - All of the above however additionally makes independent decisions based on experiences & known model bias / weaknesses !!

Anyway... UKMO 168 - strong ENE flow across the uk, a sliding shallow low & ridge trying to build north in the gap

1842C99B-4D0F-4D5A-954E-59A1D066277A.thumb.png.8964a1b88e8cda36baff8862c92385b6.png

Agreed - so surely experience tells us the models and virtually all models, that we mere mortals can see, have very quickly lost the idea of a significant cold spell.

Its nice to think that the models are playing games and will give everyone what they want but we cant forecast something that is not there. Yes, we can sit here and say "yes it will cold in December" but surely given the odds that's bound to happen given that its winter....its frustrating reading continuous posts of "it will happen" or "or so close" or "look for the upgrades in the next run".

I would love snow, of course, but at the same time it would be great to see level headed posts....rant over!

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Extended EPS day 10-15 indicative of low pressure to the South-West with a weak signal for heights to remain across Greenland, though looks too far North for anything meaningful, the mean looks quite mild. 

Day 5-7, the time period we're concerned with shows a good signal for low pressure to be underneath the block

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
18 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Extended EPS day 10-15 indicative of low pressure to the South-West with a weak signal for heights to remain across Greenland, though looks too far North for anything meaningful, the mean looks quite mild. 

Day 5-7, the time period we're concerned with shows a good signal for low pressure to be underneath the block

Wait for the clusters Daniel - slp over France isn’t predicted to be too high in the extended and the low anomaly can’t be as large as the mean shows - subtle changes in positioning in December could bring surprises for nw Europe 

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im not sure what your expecting to be honest-

The cold this week is going to land exactly how its been forecast for the last 5-6 days with some 'limited' opportunity for snow over the hills & maybe some lower levels-

The picture then changes to one of sightly less cold followed by more opportunity from the E/NE

What your getting caught up in is the macro detail but missing the total big picture - which is about the blocking & the positioning relative to the time of year- 

Scandi > Iceland > Scandi is almost the inverse of the norm.

If you was 'expecting' loads of deep cold & snow just yet then you need to lower your expectations just for a short while - 

The window is only just opening for cold from the east, but that window gets larger over the next fortnight & continues for 12 weeks after that- whereby slack continental flows will readily turn rain to snow- where as at the moment its very much borderline being that its 2 weeks to early-

So whilst it might be slightly frustrating this early on its the bigger picture that should give us confidence around whats about to occur this winter...

I understand where your thinking is with the overall picture. However, its made out like its guaranteed and I'm just trying to point out that its really not and I think some level headedness would be refreshing, that's what I'm expecting.

Just to make the point I'm certainly not digging at anyone, far from it. I wasn't expecting deep cold at all, in fact I posted about week ago when the "big block" was forecasted and clearly stated it wouldn't happen and why. I'm not bias towards any type of weather I'm just an all round enthusiast with a science background. I don't think Im missing any bigger picture here im fully aware of the NH profile and that's here I have been focusing. The current areas of energy is not allowing for a block to establish at the moment and that's my point.

I appreciate your time to respond John. I think we are looking at things a little differently here in terms of perspective and expectations.

Lets hope things do happen, my unbiased opinion is not before Christmas though.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Whos John lol !

Nothings 100% assured this winter however we should be as confident as we ever could be for 18/19

haha sorry John, I mean Steve lol Its still early.......somewhere  

I agree - that sort of statement suits me!

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

Wondered why there was a lack of comments regarding the ECMWF, this is why a mild south westerly wind, no sign of cold or snow; the low to the south west is overpowering the block.

AF9CB22E-E074-424C-B079-73A6DB8694F2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Surely it’s the day 5-7 we should be concentrating on rather than extended ensembles which flip flop all over the place.Just stick to METO they much more reliable for longer term forecasts 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Anyway. 6z is out to 126 and we're already seeing some subtle improvements, heights a little lower across Europe (can't seem to upload images for some reason so I'll have to link)

gfsnh-0-126.png?6

 

Edited by Paul
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