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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
3 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Wasn't expecting this. Dire.

no.png

It's all FI. Don't get too upset yet!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Wasn't expecting this. Dire.

no.png

Its the natural progression to west based-NAO im afraid..

We really need to see some adjustments to how this low behaves very soon.

Really dont want to see some of these extended charts come off..

I be watching ukmo like a hawk in the morning!

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its the natural progression to west based-NAO im afraid..

We really need to see some adjustments to how this low behaves very soon.

Really dont want to see some of these extended charts come off..

I be watching ukmo like a hawk in the morning!

I concur as well, a perfect example of how being in a -NAO isn't the 'be all and end all' when it comes to cold and snowy conditions in the UK. I would actually say, such conditions are more inclement then the conditions we were experiencing in a +NAO.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its the natural progression to west based-NAO im afraid..

We really need to see some adjustments to how this low behaves very soon.

Really dont want to see some of these extended charts come off..

I be watching ukmo like a hawk in the morning!

That looks even worse - that looks like a +NAO.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

That looks even worse - that looks like a +NAO.

Sorry i didnt make myself clear..i meant the natural progression from west based -NAO is a+NAO.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
13 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Wasn't expecting this. Dire.

no.png

What were you expecting? A baby?

It's +360 so it'll be different tomorrow.

Here's the op at +360 to cheer you up-

gfs-0-360.thumb.png.0700b3c2116808779d70d70166c49eb2.png

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.8727dc2b9e73e23e4936a7692b9fd0bc.png

anyway, someone spotted a stray isobar earlier on a model somewhere. Apparently could be worthy of an Express headline... 

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Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

What were you expecting? A baby?

It's +360 so it'll be different tomorrow.

Here's the op at +360 to cheer you up-

gfs-0-360.thumb.png.0700b3c2116808779d70d70166c49eb2.png

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.8727dc2b9e73e23e4936a7692b9fd0bc.png

anyway, someone spotted a stray isobar earlier on a model somewhere. Apparently could be worthy of an Express headline... 

Don't get me started. 

21691174_1403597699762801_1602802039_n.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

UKMO 144 is very nice, GFS 144 decent.

The funny thing about GFS is that it has just started solving that heights won't drain SE through the midterm but will be sucked NW

gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-144.png

 

But then appears to make the same mistake again from 168 to 192. 

gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-192.png

Regardless it is another improvement and the cold Arctic plunge South is almost getting into the UK again and still the small chance of a snow event if it gets far enough South and mixes with any lows to the S pushing E

gfsnh-1-192.pnggfsnh-0-180.png

GEM also good.

gemnh-0-240.png?00

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

what a complete flip in fortunes past 240. Atlantic knocking but scandi ridge trying to form. Safe to say it doesn't have a bloody clue what's going on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well as far as im concerned we are still in the game but we really really need a decent EC this morning

..

The output this morning is going in the right direction. Ignore the vagaries of GFS FI when there is so much variation run to run and within the ensembles.

ECM will be fine  

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
13 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The output this morning is going in the right direction. Ignore the vagaries of GFS FI when there is so much variation run to run and within the ensembles.

ECM will be fine  

Your more confident than me mucka..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Shame that i was quite encouraged by the ukmo/gfs op..

Slightly better right at the end,.

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Undercutting - rarely follow the GFS as its always playing catch up-

Always follow the UKMO / ECM-

Note UKMO consistency today & GFS move to colder by 180 over & above the last 2-3 runs - catching up!

72FB2F9E-F22C-4B93-BAD0-E7D520BD3D62.thumb.png.841da34b93dbbe2d7de1db23ca3eb9d4.png

Also parallel starting to think - atlantic not coming through -

FC9548FC-8920-4537-9177-47EACDA757B1.thumb.png.729ae18817ae6f110d1b43e9418394b6.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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1 hour ago, CanadaAl said:

what a complete flip in fortunes past 240. Atlantic knocking but scandi ridge trying to form. Safe to say it doesn't have a bloody clue what's going on. 

Scandi block - retrograde to Iceland - then slides back to Scandi & rebuilds in situ is probably about the best call !

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Scandi block - retrograde to Iceland - then slides back to Scandi & rebuilds in situ is probably about the best call !

Even more of a retrograde - to Greenland!

gfsnh-0-360_yqf5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

LOL..

Well as steve says,ukmo steady as a rock at themoment.

Rest of them seem to be here there and everywhere.

Last hour in work for me but as it stands i would say a slight move to a more agreeable pattern this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Your more confident than me mucka..

It wasn't confidence it was Valium .

Guess I will give them up alongside the crunchynut cornflakes.

ECH1-192.GIF?19-12

Kind of interesting both ECM and GFSp have sniffed a Scandi high in FI with the Atlantic not breaking through - new direction?

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
55 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Scandi block - retrograde to Iceland - then slides back to Scandi & rebuilds in situ is probably about the best call !

 

8C2BD941-67E2-4EAE-8932-79BD5DF164FD.png

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