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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I'm not after -200000c uppers that is just being ridiculous. The fact is only 2 of the 23 available ensemble members on the GFS 12z only show uppers getting below -5C in parts of england so support is rock solid.

In fact once the cold uppers mix out after wednesday, uppers in some areas of southern england don't drop below 0C until T372

Just 3 days ago support was also rock solid on the ensembles for a prolonged cold spell with nearly all ensemble members around or below the -5c line. 

Things can and do change quickly.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Right!

off to dream about lottery balls

i mean snowballs:oldgrin:

Gobsmacking FL from gfs,but it's only a dream chart at the mo.

night all,

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Always takes 2 bites at the cherry

Lets hope it's no more than that

got none left on the tree lol

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

Plenty of scatter

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Mucka said:

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

LOL! Absolutely no telling what direction we're going in with a spread of over 20c in the extended! That effectively makes the EPS mean utterly useless 

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

 & thats why if you dont read the original post & investigate the detail you will always miss the subtle changes that over a period of 2-3 runs become a big change

Look at the isolines -

C8BEB9F1-AB1A-4378-8685-20144024D7CD.thumb.jpeg.74fba1440ff2c82bce6ee983fa9c52a3.jpegA50F5304-966E-4FB0-AB47-ABD372CC996D.thumb.jpeg.b0ec3dfc20ffde04d437a4fa329c83ca.jpeg

Point taken...although that is hardly a raging north easterly bringing disruptive snow and cold.

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps continue to be far from wintry .........high anomaly to our south and east....... 

Just wached The ecmwf seasonal update on gavs weathervids and that isn’t too encouraging for something cold ither it’s not really showing the blocking signals it was showing in the last 2 updates. 

 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Sorted out the problem of syed2878’s reply appearing inside the quote box
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I heard that along with the usual upgrades GFS para got an upgrade on its precipitation type algorithm which has gone from 5% accuracy to 100% accuracy, honest!

gfs-2-54.png?18gfs-2-60.png?18

yes  same upgrade the arpege has gone through

arpegeeur-2-54.png?18  arpegeeur-2-57.png?18 arpegeeur-2-60.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Point taken...although that is hardly a raging north easterly bringing disruptive snow and cold.

But Steve is trying to say this is an upgrade and expect further upgrades as each model run comes out - little steps

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Point taken...although that is hardly a raging north easterly bringing disruptive snow and cold.

No - But the subtle changes are a good sign things are perhaps swinging back in our favour. It's very rare to see the models go from a non-cold setup straight into a bitterly cold one in a single run. Small changes over several runs lead to a bigger change further down the line. Today, we've seen those subtle steps across all models.

Tomorrow? Maybe a few more subtle steps will tip the balance and we'll start seeing much colder charts show up again. Maybe that wont happen maybe it will, who knows. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Critical point on this FV3 run, will the trough disrupt or not?   T168:

image.thumb.jpg.2b05963f2e4863b5eadeb0f1d0525dbb.jpg

Actually I confess I haven't got a sodding clue what is going on, FV3 at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.3dcafb06a158f305ed324f4d2f6f95b7.jpg

Going to bed, wake me if any earth shattering weather events take place. Zzzzz.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
10 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

As someone with no experience at model watching I enjoy looking the netweather forums to see how the prospects of cold are developing. However, something that is really annoying me and confusing me is when such strong statements with the exact opposite meaning are put side by side. For example, all day long people have been saying the charts are showing upgrades but then somebody comes out and says that the runs are constantly getting more mild. Just thought I’d post this because it does confuse the hell out of me.

Indeed so Cameron, I suppose model interpretations are to some extent subjective especially when considering what will occur after the range of a model. Also important to remember the bias that people hold, for e.g, those wanting cold will of course be more willing to share models and runs which show there desire, not necessarily be as keen to share and comment on milder runs, this is why often when cold isn't being forecast on the main models people will look to using other models.

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Posted
  • Location: Formby, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & Snow
  • Location: Formby, Merseyside
12 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

As someone with no experience at model watching I enjoy looking the netweather forums to see how the prospects of cold are developing. However, something that is really annoying me and confusing me is when such strong statements with the exact opposite meaning are put side by side. For example, all day long people have been saying the charts are showing upgrades but then somebody comes out and says that the runs are constantly getting more mild. Just thought I’d post this because it does confuse the hell out of me.

Different opinions that's all, stick with it as it's addictive reading and fascinating stuff for the inexperienced like me, you learn so much!

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Negative. 

gfsnh-0-222.png

Depressing, just when you might think the weather models may change course we get a dose of reality from none other than the FV3.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
12 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

As someone with no experience at model watching I enjoy looking the netweather forums to see how the prospects of cold are developing. However, something that is really annoying me and confusing me is when such strong statements with the exact opposite meaning are put side by side. For example, all day long people have been saying the charts are showing upgrades but then somebody comes out and says that the runs are constantly getting more mild. Just thought I’d post this because it does confuse the hell out of me.

Apologies if there is any confusion, it's a tricky pattern with a lot going on. I guess we all try and second guess the next step as that is part of the fun. Certain runs can have upgrades synoptically that might have further implications but the conditions at the surface may not be that exciting / sufficiently cold enough.

I guess to confuse things further we all look for different things. Quiet cold weather but with little snow potential doesn't work for me but someone else may really enjoy it.

I try and be as objective as possible to try and help newbies in this thread and will point out where potential upgrades can arise but also what needs to improve. In a situation as fine as this it can be difficult to call.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.a435db613285cae0d5b879a50c7f4e9b.png

Anyhow here is the swingometer for the 18z which shows the growing theme of next weekend being little bit on the chilly side but nothing to write home about. Uppers on all the runs are about 0C across England, some with -5C in northern Scotland. Make what you like of it but the a pretty clear picture is emerging for next weekend despite all the flak I received earlier. It's just the implications of subtle changes that are the cause of uncertainty further down the line.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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