Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs is not quiet there but it is a step in the right direction just like the ecm,more troughing to our NE on the run and the trough disrupting SE,what model watching this is right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Secondary low down to the Azores (if it occurs) won't help matters @216z - just as the primary was sliding...

Doesn't show this feature on the 12z

Edited by Froze were the Days
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Gfs looking similar to ECM, will be interesting to see what happens after day 10...will it slide SE?

Similar pattern but less favourable placement for uk to stay cold 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

@Catacol wow, Scandi High in December? That really would be a feat! Thanks for the forecasts, keep them coming!! 

December 2005 anyone? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

The pendulum seems to be swinging back now towards deep cold by the months end. The Atlantic has never looked like coming back in anyway, but I think the great charts we were treated to a few days ago may soon be back on the table. Really like the projected set up for the end of the month, as I think it is very close to becoming epic, and for me at the moment, we are again now trending in the right direction.  

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Really, really absolutely pointless looking for the detail like 850hPa temperatures that far out, because it will change 50 times between now and the time we're talking about. 

 

Do you think cold uppers are just going to appear magically out of nowhere then?

There isn't much to push them southwards, only way I can see that changing is if the Greenland high intensifies more then forecast, if not the UK will just be stuck in a col with T850s that aren't very cold, it's something apparent in a lot of ensemble members. Rather cold at the surface but not cold enough to make it exciting unfortunately.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I heard that along with the usual upgrades GFS para got an upgrade on its precipitation type algorithm which has gone from 5% accuracy to 100% accuracy, honest!

gfs-2-54.png?18gfs-2-60.png?18

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight

the runs keep getting milder. We need to remember just because the NH profile is out of sync it doesn't mean we will get cold.

  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Cruel! However, I will bank this for now. It could be oh so much worse than this. 

gfsnh-1-240.png

Could this possibly be what the ext/eps are reflecting for this time period...Sods law!!:whistling:

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Not a bad end to FI at all

gfsnh-0-324.png?18

Goes along the lines of the meto thinking. Temporary relaxation of the blocking only for it to return shortly afterwards. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

12z Very small changes in the pattern = large changes in the detail. Stressing over the fact this single run doesn't show -200000c uppers directly over our heads at over 200 hours out is pointless

I'm not after -200000c uppers that is just being ridiculous. The fact is only 2 of the 23 available ensemble members on the GFS 12z only show uppers getting below -5C in parts of england so support is rock solid.

In fact once the cold uppers mix out after wednesday, uppers in some areas of southern england don't drop below 0C until T372

Edited by Quicksilver1989
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Clusters tonight - just one between D8 and D10 so the mean charts on Meteociel will suffice

D11 — our ridge is trying to escape west

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111812_264.

D15 comes with a coldies health warning - put your hands over cluster 1 if you want a decent night's sleep tonight

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111812_360.

(it's very mild ) 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Gfs stop teasing us now,you did that last week!!!

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.6ef7047807f837d3a44c175906862816.png

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

We get there in the end, complete opposite to the 12z in FI, making hard work of it though.

gfs-0-372.png

gfs-1-372.png

gfs-2-372.png

Edited by snowray
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters tonight - just one between D8 and D10 so the mean charts on Meteociel will suffice

D11 — our ridge is trying to escape west

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111812_264.

D15 comes with a coldies health warning - put your hands over cluster 1 if you want a decent night's sleep tonight

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111812_360.

(it's very mild ) 

D15 clusters scream - haven't got a clue! Lol. However, the overiding signal is blocking to our north west

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...