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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I shall post in 3 days time.....when nirvana is back we’ll on the cards...in the meantime we are far better than yesterday morning...and we’ll move forward again

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I shall post in 3 days time.....when nirvana is back we’ll on the cards...in the meantime we are far better than yesterday morning...and we’ll move forward again

 

BFTP

Bold statement, bet that's not been made on the back of just the ICON 18z, here at T120!

image.thumb.jpg.aaf4459df3983645b3c821e4faf9314e.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Bold statement, bet that's not been made on the back of the ICON 18z, here at T120!

image.thumb.jpg.aaf4459df3983645b3c821e4faf9314e.jpg

Looks better than the 12z to me..

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Quite a bit of uncertainty at the moment - models struggle in these set ups, not easy to predict, a fine line. Low pressure/trough formation to our SW will be a nuisance to forecasting, will it undercut heights to the north, or simply stall in situ instead pulling in a more southerly flow - helped by heights ridging out of NW Africa and into Iberia.. Will need to see this one play out for a few days yet.

Very fine margins between rather average late November conditions, or potential for a more notable colder attack from the NE.

However, no sign of a rampant jet firing low after low and heavy rain, indeed further settled weather seems more likely as we enter December and of a cold and frosty variety.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON another upgrade ( coming fast now ) 

The CAA is sharper at 120 south through Scandi - Also the blocking at a better Northerly locale-

They look hardly any different to me and I would certainly not call the 18z an upgrade. 

iconnh-0-123.png

iconnh-0-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

They look hardly any different to me and I would certainly not call the 18z an upgrade. 

iconnh-0-123.png

iconnh-0-120.png

I would concur everything a bit further north but within the margin of area. I suppose that is a good and bad thing as it will bring in a more southerly flow but the heights are further north which I would have thought reduces or delays the risk of them draining south. Still a far cry from the charts we were seeing a few days ago, would call the 18Z virtually the same as the 12Z...

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
26 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I shall post in 3 days time.....when nirvana is back we’ll on the cards...in the meantime we are far better than yesterday morning...and we’ll move forward again

 

BFTP

You are Theresa May and I claim my 5 Euros 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Have to say im still on the fence longer term but the eps/ext eps are slowly beginning to drain my optimism.

Really need to be seeing a change sharpish!!

Looks increasingly likely that the Atlantic will break through in the 8 to 10 day timeframe but everything about it looks very temporary. I do think the meto have got this one right. A short lived return to slightly milder weather but we won't have to wait long for the cold blocking to return. I think December will be very seasonal on the whole. A proper feeling December. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Certainly an improvement over 12z

Sharper trough should prevent sinking SE

gfsnh-0-144.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

When I heard the phrase 

"The models struggle with this set up.

Does that mean they struggle right across the Northern Hemisphere. 

What do the Russian weather enthusiasts say when they looked at today's 12z .

Did the toast it with another large vodka

Or say in Russian. The models are struggling again .

Just wondering if the rest of the Northern Hemisphere has the same problem 

Or it's a UK thing.

I know the models predict west to east in the Northern Hemisphere. 

So are they struggling with a high pressure rotation East to west.

Have I got it  right." for me and many other net weather viewers and posters

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

18z, this is a LOT better, undercut approaching?.....big run coming up?:cold:

gfs-0-162.png

gfs-1-162.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Is it just me or has wetterzentrale crashed? would be typical on the important bit of the run lol

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

'The models are struggling...' is what we say, when the models haven't yet  'smelled the coffee'. But they will! ☕

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Is it just me or has wetterzentrale crashed? would be typical on the important bit of the run lol

Use meteociel Northern hemisphere charts - they're much better - give you the best perspective.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Is it just me or has wetterzentrale crashed? would be typical on the important bit of the run lol

View it here or on our own netweather charts:oldsmile:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Use meteociel Northern hemisphere charts - they're much better - give you the best perspective.

They probably do, I've just become so used to looking at the model output from the same angle its harder to judge lol

But even looking at meteociel its easy to see the 18z is a lot better, trough disruption!

gfseu-0-168.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

At this point it is not what the models are showing for the UK that is important, it's setting things up for later.  I like the GFS 18z, here T174:

image.thumb.jpg.6d82276bd30bdc05c5b17bca5f5226bb.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0436e837f05e6ed1befd10c70aa6d23b.jpg

The jet is well south....

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

So at T204 we have stopped linking up the high over to our NW with that over Spain but the uppers simply aren't cold enough. There isn't any force to drag that colder air to our north southwards.

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