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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Looking on the eps  days 9/10 for the Atlantic trough not to phase with low heights to the north so far to our west compared to the 00z and for the Iberian upper ridge to be more suppressed at the same time 

that should encourage the ne influence to be more noticeable re the mean uppers lowering 

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

It's so great to see so little of the PV on the North American side of the pole in some of these charts - pretty sure haven't seen it like this since 2010. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

These set ups are prone to be really annoying ! The ECM tease continues! It’s like a tweak away from some snow , equally another tweak just leaves UK coldies wondering what might have been .

It doesn’t need a Hollywood scriptwriter to develop an outlook with quite a lot of snow as the polar front straddles the UK . A touch more trough disruption and the block a bit further east , and bingo!

So for the timebeing the juries out , deliberations restart tomorrow !

These situations were much common, back in the 1960s: though the question remains the same: will it or won't it slide? The difference, IMO, is that, these days, the question is often answerable about 5-days' out, whereas back then, even the following 24-48 hours were a nightmare for forecasters...

That we're even asking the question just now is indicative of things to come, I think...Hope!

But whatever transpires, next week, it'll sure beat the hell out of wondering how quickly some paltry wee Atlantic HP will topple?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM ensemble mean at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.d8c8c8481f42f36a16f6a236fc6efae6.jpg

it does put the focus on that low in the Atlantic on future runs, I still think it will go under...

JMA good out to T192:

image.thumb.jpg.d92088732cc4b76a86dbd9bcb1a6bc73.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps continue to be far from wintry .........high anomaly to our south and east.......

Hmmmmmmm...

Not what the majority will want to hear!!

I do hope this ruddy low doesnt cause a west based -NAO..

Sounds like ext eps are moving in that direction.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps continue to be far from wintry .........high anomaly to our south and east.......

Isn't that yesterday's run as the site is having technicalities?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018111712&fh=264

or are you viewing them elsewhere?

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Isn't that yesterday's run as the site is having technicalities?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018111712&fh=264

or are you viewing them elsewhere?

That says it’s the 12z but it doesn’t go past day 10 in any case .......I’m referencing days 10/15 ......behind paywall .

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That says it’s the 12z but it doesn’t go past day 10 in any case .......I’m referencing days 10/15 ......behind paywall .

Is there any charts you can share from behind the paywall? Or could you lose your subscription?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, Rocheydub said:

Is there any charts you can share from behind the paywall? Or could you lose your subscription?

Potentially (but very unlikely) .......tonight isn’t a night for sharing anything  from the extended ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Potentially (but very unlikely) .......tonight isn’t a night for sharing anything  from the extended ! 

Roger!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That says it’s the 12z but it doesn’t go past day 10 in any case .......I’m referencing days 10/15 ......behind paywall .

Great, just in time for the start of winter, typical!  Lets hope they're barking up the wrong tree!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
1 hour ago, AWD said:

Putting aside the pointless micro-detail of UK surface weather on the EC 240hr, chart (which won't verify like the chart suggests), the main note to take is a distinct lack of PV over Greenland & Canada.

With the PV camped out over the eastern half of the Northern hemisphere, there will be a distinct lack of "fuel" for the North Atlantic Jet Stream, suggestive of a continuation of the forecast blocked regime over the Atlantic sector of the Northern Hemisphere, providing Northwest Europe with further opportunities of colder, wintry weather as we enter winter proper.

Short term pain for long term gain and all that.

Totally agree could be a strat warming as well early December if things continue at this pace.

Although we have seen the whole pattern collapse before.

Definitely no mobility in the Atlantic.

Seeing that low to our west being squeezed is excellent evolution into a longer colder trend in the mean time chunk of the PV is sinking over the Scandinavian side.

Which gives a great opening for strong Greenland heights what with zonal winds dropping and AO dropping like a stone it's a good start to winter.

Regardless eastern Europe is going into the freezer.

All good so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

This time last night, I was fully expecting dreams of snow; tonight, however, mass suicide seems more likely...Yes, we have had a few 'bad' runs; yes, the coming Atlantic LP might not slide, as ordered. But that is not all...the Santa shaker had only gone and given me a measly 15% chance of snow for Yule Tide!

The first two nasties might well be mere trivia...But, the Santa shaker? Holy sheet! Not the Santa shaker?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Just to illustrate how amazing this vortex displacement has been for us, the Euro keeps an easterly tinge to the wind for the entire run.

It's an amazing run with a likely more snowy easterly or northerly down the line.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON another upgrade ( coming fast now ) 

The CAA is sharper at 120 south through Scandi - Also the blocking at a better Northerly locale-

Brilliant!!any charts steve!!!i think after goin through a rough patch last few days we are now about to enter a couple of days of upgrades now!or is that wishfull thinking!!

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Brilliant!!any charts steve!!!i think after goin through a rough patch last few days we are now about to enter a couple of days of upgrades now!or is that wishfull thinking!!

Yeah was thinking the same thing, quite often I find there’s a few crap runs before they start to upgrade nearer to the date

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

I seem to remember in mid November  2009 looking at the models.

Looking at a zonal set up .

Thinking how boring another average winter

The charts then seemed Nowhere near as good as we have now.

Then within a week or so the charts flipped to a much colder outlook and followed it through .

It's probably not relevant to now

And my post maybe moved 

But this current setup on the 12z .

Compared to previous mid / late Novembers is very good imo.

I'm no expert and I will never make out

I am .

 

 

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