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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Yeah, doesn't look like the GFS is going to make it, it hasn't got a clue so quite classically it creates a dartboard low instead and refuses to undercut or even really move the low from that position

NOPE.thumb.png.3cae4ad7c957f074340908edb9f35676.png

Bin it.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

GFS being stubborn, here at T174:

image.thumb.jpg.0952ada42c3874b659b7881d21bcca26.jpg

That low 1000 miles W of UK, if it just sits there it will do nobody any good, an ill wind!  We need to see this disrupt, elongate, split up, go under....all of those, convinced GFS is wrong here, UKMO and ICON both have modelled this better, I bet FV3 will too in an hour or so...

Edited by Mike Poole
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

Much improved runs today, I really like the GEM, close to something very special there. GEM has shown much more consistency in my opinion than some of the other models, along with UKMO and GFS (p). It would not take much tweaking and we could see a stellar run from here.

gem-0-192.png

gem-1-192.png

gem-0-240.png

gem-1-240.png

Edited by snowray
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS being stubborn, here at T174:

image.thumb.jpg.0952ada42c3874b659b7881d21bcca26.jpg

That low 1000 miles W of UK, if it just sits there it will do nobody any good, an ill wind!  We need to see this disrupt, elongate, split up, go under....all of those, convinced GFS is wrong here, UKMO and ICON both have modelled this better, I bet FV3 will to in an hour or so...

Me too - How many times have we seen the GFS struggle to disrupt lows underneath areas of high pressure only to then create a dartboard low, all we need now is for it to go full zonal in the low-res section of the run and it'll be a mid 2000's classic GFS run.

The important thing is that it has improved in the short-mid term with better ridging and better orientation to the high.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

does anyone know if the fv3 / GFS(p) has an ensemble suite we can view? 

I was having a look myself last night for that but couldn't find an ens 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

gFS trying to build a Scandinavian high at the 190 hr mark??? Very strange run tbh

Edited by swfc
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

Experience would say that the GFS normally struggles more than any other model with this setup. Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s wrong this time of course.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

There'd defo be some cold and foggy nights, if this were to occur?

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Experience would say that the GFS normally struggles more than any other model with this setup. Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s wrong this time of course.

True, it might not be wrong but this runs looks very strange again, as others have said. 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Am I right in thinking the uncertainty is with that low?Capture.thumb.PNG.54233c3649b20bdd52a76c46cc30c72d.PNG

The closer it moves to the UK the less cold the air would be as it would begin to pick up the milder air to our south. But it could also go right across the UK then once it moves away it opens the door to the north

Edited by Summer Sun
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
4 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Am I right in thinking the uncertainty is with that low?Capture.thumb.PNG.54233c3649b20bdd52a76c46cc30c72d.PNG

No so much the location but whether it disrupts. You want the low to become more oval and stretch which signifies its losing the battle. It’s crucial energy from that low heads se towards Iberia .  Once the high to the sw connects up with the high over the UK it’s game over as it will draw the UK high south and allow energy to go over the top . 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Even if the GFS is right here, there's the potential for a big N'ly as FI progresses 

gfsnh-0-222.png?12

It helps A LOT that the PV is displaced to the E of the hemisphere

Edited by CreweCold
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

UKMO and GFS not miles apart at T144

UW144-21.GIF?18-17  gfs-0-144.png?12

UKMO looks more like sliding under though

And I dunno, I just look at that low on the UKMO above Norway and think, surely that's going to cut more S than SE? #northerly

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO and GFS not miles apart at T144

UW144-21.GIF?18-17  gfs-0-144.png?12

UKMO looks more like sliding under though

And I dunno, I just look at that low on the UKMO above Norway and think, surely that's going to cut more S than SE? #northerly

It looks more sliding yes but another issue is high seepage! We don’t want the block to have an escape route west , the dreaded west based neg NAO is one of my real irritations in these set ups.

Edited by nick sussex
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Regardless, the trop PV is having an uncomfortable time of it

gfsnh-0-276.png?12

That's a large poleward ridge extending up the west coast of USA/Canada there.

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
20 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Yeah, doesn't look like the GFS is going to make it, it hasn't got a clue so quite classically it creates a dartboard low instead and refuses to undercut or even really move the low from that position

NOPE.thumb.png.3cae4ad7c957f074340908edb9f35676.png

Bin it.

It might be wrong, but it could be on the right lines also so no one should dismiss a run just because you don't think it has a clue or its showing a milder set up. Looks a plausible set up too me btw mind but the beauty of model watching is that at that range, its subject to changes. 

Nevertheless the chilly feel should hold on for most of the week but whether mild air can win the battle or not is a huge question. Could go either way really.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

And now the low crosses the UK via the Midlands...only a small adjustment needed?

Netweather GFS Image

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

GFS (p) starting to roll out. In the shorter term it is sticking to it's guns as far as wintry PPN is concerned for the middle of next week, can it be trusted though?

Could there be a few surprises around for some of us I wonder?:oldgood:

gfs-2-42.png

gfs-2-54.png

gfs-2-48.png

gfs-2-60.png

Edited by snowray
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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
Just now, snowray said:

GFS (p) starting to roll out. In the shorter term it is sticking to it's guns as far as wintry PPN is concerned for the middle of next week, can it be trusted though?

Could there be a few surprises around for some of us I wonder?:oldgood:

gfs-2-42.png

gfs-2-54.png

gfs-2-48.png

gfs-2-60.png

I think your reading too much into those PPN charts in all honesty, the continent at ground level is not all that cold and whilst there might be some evap cooling to allow something for higher elevations, i think for the vast majority, anything that falls out of the skies will be of cold rain. 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well GFS goes Atlantic crazy in FI..

 

...possibly because it totally lost the plot in the reliable timeframe?

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