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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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The conditions outside are pretty rare - maybe we average a night like this every other year !!!

- Low heights

- Surface cold pool

- Stationary air

- Low dewpoints

- Cloudless skies

To achieve -5c in the SE without snowcover is quite rare...

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-1 here at the moment, just walked to the petrol garage, cars all icing up, nearly went  over as where they use the pressure washer, it was shear ice, blimey dangerous just getting blooming electric :cold:😀

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Evening all,

Just want to apologise to the East Kent "posse". My vain attempt to encourage the Models to introduce a "backdoor" NNE on the 24th Jan, now looks to be a bust. Sorry I tried my hardest. So apologies to LOTTIEKENT et al!!

Having viewed the 12z runs, I see that the PV seems to have been on the Viagra, again!! But, as opposed to the 06z runs, the Models HAVE come up with some "orgasmic" runs.

I'd just like to post a couple of quotes from conversations I had with local Meteorologist, Ian Currie, over the past couple of weekends.

On the 6th January, Mr.Currie stated this:

Quote:

"Ian was of the opinion that we will see a pattern change probably just after mid-month. He wasn't of the opinion that we will see strong blocking over Greenland but that positive heights will finally transfer westwards, away from the U.K., with a strong ridge northwards and that a south-eastwards diving low will be the catalyst for ushering in an Arctic northerly. He doesn't yet see height rises over Scandinavia but that may well come, later on in the Winter, although not guaranteed" 

Then, from my conversation with Ian last weekend, he stated this:

As stated last weekend, he doesn't envisage a strong Greenland block but a strong ridge from a mid-Atlantic High, allied to lows tracking on a N.W/S.E. axis, after a few glancing blows that an Arctic sourced Northerly is likely to be on the menu, as we enter the last week of January, the flow may then towards the veer towards the N.E, for a while. Ian is not expecting a prolonged "freeze up" but cold spells punctuated by milder interludes. He does expect this sort of regime to last through February and perhaps into March, too. He expects the flow to be mainly from the North but that there was a chance that a Scandinavian High could develop, as we go through February, although no guarantee."

Having looked at thev12z runs, this type of scenario could be on the cards for around 26th. January.

I'm now going to post up another, "Jam tomorrow" month/year!! But can you make mine a Peanut Butter, please.

 image.thumb.png.9c47a33dee34e6709812dee14daeb579.png

Lassie will have a Pot Noodle, please.

 image.png.9e117aa893c93e2ced9f55fdfc28e66c.png

Anyway, enough of this Tomfoolery. December 8th 1981. I was living in Camberwell, S.E.London with my first Wife, at the time. Heavy rain turned to snow, around breakfast time and left a deposit of a couple of inches of snow. The following couple of weeks, featured another couple of snow events. A C.E.T of 0.3c, was recorded for December 1981.

Todays 12z runs do resemble this type of evolution occurring in the last week of January. It's certainly the type of evolution Ian Currie envisaged when he suggested we may need, a "few bites of the cherry" before we see a substantial, Arctic sourced Northerly. I'm sure those members that experienced this spell, would forego the rather lame event in Feb.1983 and wait another few days, to experience a December 1981 type spell but perhaps LOTTIEKENT, wouldn't agree!!

 image.thumb.png.3daf5831f69e15504dbfb5076fbc60a9.png    

Yes I know it's "jam tomorrow" , again. But believe me a repeat similar to December 1981, really would be a tasty dish to serve up!!

This type of scenario would tie-in with the METO's 16/30 day outlook, " cold and wintry at times, interspersed with milder interludes in the south". That's pretty much what occurred in December 1981.

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:

Changeable conditions are most likely at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, very cold conditions are more likely to develop through this period with a greater chance of northerly and easterly winds. This brings an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frosts, however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the northwest. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder and wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring a risk of significant snow and ice at times.

Evidently, Lassie's O.F.I. leads the Models 6-0 :shok: So we really do need the Models to take control of proceedings and stick the ball in the net, a few times.

Regards,

Tom.    :hi:

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41 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Clear & bitter here

-2.2c

The air outside reminds me of when I went to Iceland !

Did you get anything nice to eat for your Tea ?

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-2 here at Locksbottom.Just looked at HIRLAM for what type of precipitation comes through the SE Monday night/Tuesday morning and they are going for all rain.I found this model very accurate in March 2018 when it forecast 2 or 3 snow events very accurately.

TOMSE12-Looks like Ian Currie is going to be bang on the money with his forecast-Been very accurate for last 2 weeks and looks like he could be close to the mark if the models follow their routes which seem similar to his thoughts.Shame there doesnt look like being an Easterly or North Easterly but maybe they will come after mid February(he says optimistically!!)

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

-2 here at Locksbottom.Just looked at HIRLAM for what type of precipitation comes through the SE Monday night/Tuesday morning and they are going for all rain.I found this model very accurate in March 2018 when it forecast 2 or 3 snow events very accurately.

TOMSE12-Looks like Ian Currie is going to be bang on the money with his forecast-Been very accurate for last 2 weeks and looks like he could be close to the mark if the models follow their routes which seem similar to his thoughts.Shame there doesnt look like being an Easterly or North Easterly but maybe they will come after mid February(he says optimistically!!)

 

 

Try Arpege.

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14 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:

Try Arpege.

As far as i can see has got rain as well but might be looking at it wrongly.Can you confirm ?

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10 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:

Thought i was going mad then lol!!Arome is a bit more optimistic for snow in maybe parts of East Kent but even then its marginal and i didnt find Arome very accurate in the past.Hope its right though!!

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1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Thought i was going mad then lol!!Arome is a bit more optimistic for snow in maybe parts of East Kent but even then its marginal and i didnt find Arome very accurate in the past.Hope its right though!!

Hi

 

18z GFS better.  Its only of bonus value to see some flakes falling.  At the moment Id say its 50/50 but Ive a feeling it will be colder than is currently forecast, so chance of at least seeing some flakes fall to get that winter feeling.

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1 minute ago, Whether Idle said:

Hi

 

18z GFS better.  Its only of bonus value to see some flakes falling.  At the moment Id say its 50/50 but Ive a feeling it will be colder than is currently forecast, so chance of at least seeing some flakes fall to get that winter feeling.

Agree it would be nice just to see a few flakes falling even if it doesnt settle.It has been a frustrating first half of the winter so far and the search for snow in the SE thread continues.At least it has got colder since last Thursday and it certainly will feel like winter this week with some hard frosts and max temps struggling to 5 degree max for most upto Thursday.Thats as far as i am looking atm as models seem to be struggling even upto T+96h !!

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3 minutes ago, Fatboypirate said:

-1,5 on the Coast, DP-4.3 

Clear and Crisp and very still , just no wind!

 

Spot on minus 1 here.

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Same here

-2.5c & DP -5ish

Expecting to see snow here - maybe a dusting, 1-2cm up the road at West Kingsdown

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1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

He doesn't envisage a strong Greenland block but a strong ridge from a mid-Atlantic High, allied to lows tracking on a N.W/S.E. axis, after a few glancing blows that an Arctic sourced Northerly is likely to be on the menu, as we enter the last week of January, the flow may then towards the veer towards the N.E, for a while. Ian is not expecting a prolonged "freeze up" but cold spells punctuated by milder interludes. He does expect this sort of regime to last through February and perhaps into March, too. He expects the flow to be mainly from the North but that there was a chance that a Scandinavian High could develop, as we go through February, although no guarantee."

Having looked at thev12z runs, this type of scenario could be on the cards for around 26th. January.

I'm now going to post up another, "Jam tomorrow" month/year!! But can you make mine a Peanut Butter, please.

 image.thumb.png.9c47a33dee34e6709812dee14daeb579.png

 image.png.9e117aa893c93e2ced9f55fdfc28e66c.png

Todays 12z runs do resemble this type of evolution occurring in the last week of January. It's certainly the type of evolution Ian Currie envisaged when he suggested we may need, a "few bites of the cherry" before we see a substantial, Arctic sourced Northerly. 

 image.thumb.png.3daf5831f69e15504dbfb5076fbc60a9.png    

Hi Tom,

Great informative post as always. Seems like you have a very good friend there in Ian Currie.

I'm actually hoping he's not quite on the money with the northerlies predominating. Purely because for most of our region they're often dry/ more marginal depending on the set up compared to Easterlies. Hopefully we will see atleast an East of North flow taking hold from time to time.

I actually feel that over time we will eventually transition to Easterlies more often than Northerlies through February as you also said (Ian Currie mentions as a possibility,) mainly due to the fact so many of the long range models are consistently going for this and we generally do have a better chance in late winter on top of this. Fingers crossed 🤞

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Corrrrrrr tad chilly

 

Deal Kent

1548029377988241936287387684904.jpg

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+1.8°c in Leighton buzzard...it's clouded over from that weak front drifting down from the north. No point staying up for the lunar eclipse/blood moon then lol

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3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Evening all,

Just want to apologise to the East Kent "posse". My vain attempt to encourage the Models to introduce a "backdoor" NNE on the 24th Jan, now looks to be a bust. Sorry I tried my hardest. So apologies to LOTTIEKENT et al!!

Having viewed the 12z runs, I see that the PV seems to have been on the Viagra, again!! But, as opposed to the 06z runs, the Models HAVE come up with some "orgasmic" runs.

I'd just like to post a couple of quotes from conversations I had with local Meteorologist, Ian Currie, over the past couple of weekends.

On the 6th January, Mr.Currie stated this:

Quote:

"Ian was of the opinion that we will see a pattern change probably just after mid-month. He wasn't of the opinion that we will see strong blocking over Greenland but that positive heights will finally transfer westwards, away from the U.K., with a strong ridge northwards and that a south-eastwards diving low will be the catalyst for ushering in an Arctic northerly. He doesn't yet see height rises over Scandinavia but that may well come, later on in the Winter, although not guaranteed" 

Then, from my conversation with Ian last weekend, he stated this:

As stated last weekend, he doesn't envisage a strong Greenland block but a strong ridge from a mid-Atlantic High, allied to lows tracking on a N.W/S.E. axis, after a few glancing blows that an Arctic sourced Northerly is likely to be on the menu, as we enter the last week of January, the flow may then towards the veer towards the N.E, for a while. Ian is not expecting a prolonged "freeze up" but cold spells punctuated by milder interludes. He does expect this sort of regime to last through February and perhaps into March, too. He expects the flow to be mainly from the North but that there was a chance that a Scandinavian High could develop, as we go through February, although no guarantee."

Having looked at thev12z runs, this type of scenario could be on the cards for around 26th. January.

I'm now going to post up another, "Jam tomorrow" month/year!! But can you make mine a Peanut Butter, please.

 image.thumb.png.9c47a33dee34e6709812dee14daeb579.png

Lassie will have a Pot Noodle, please.

 image.png.9e117aa893c93e2ced9f55fdfc28e66c.png

Anyway, enough of this Tomfoolery. December 8th 1981. I was living in Camberwell, S.E.London with my first Wife, at the time. Heavy rain turned to snow, around breakfast time and left a deposit of a couple of inches of snow. The following couple of weeks, featured another couple of snow events. A C.E.T of 0.3c, was recorded for December 1981.

Todays 12z runs do resemble this type of evolution occurring in the last week of January. It's certainly the type of evolution Ian Currie envisaged when he suggested we may need, a "few bites of the cherry" before we see a substantial, Arctic sourced Northerly. I'm sure those members that experienced this spell, would forego the rather lame event in Feb.1983 and wait another few days, to experience a December 1981 type spell but perhaps LOTTIEKENT, wouldn't agree!!

 image.thumb.png.3daf5831f69e15504dbfb5076fbc60a9.png    

Yes I know it's "jam tomorrow" , again. But believe me a repeat similar to December 1981, really would be a tasty dish to serve up!!

This type of scenario would tie-in with the METO's 16/30 day outlook, " cold and wintry at times, interspersed with milder interludes in the south". That's pretty much what occurred in December 1981.

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:

Changeable conditions are most likely at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, very cold conditions are more likely to develop through this period with a greater chance of northerly and easterly winds. This brings an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frosts, however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the northwest. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder and wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring a risk of significant snow and ice at times.

Evidently, Lassie's O.F.I. leads the Models 6-0 :shok: So we really do need the Models to take control of proceedings and stick the ball in the net, a few times.

Regards,

Tom.    :hi:

lol the models need to get on the scoresheet otherwise nobody will trust the models anymore and the site will have to change its name to netweatherlore

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BBC weather for the week is pretty tedious, wintry showers mild by friday

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hi All,

Just woke from my slumbers and had a peek outside and I don't believe it we have a dusting of snow here in Southend

EDIT...   haha that will teach me, opened the window to take a proper look and grab a photo only to discover clear skies above and it is just a very heavy frost..  

 

Cheers

 

FC

Edited by frozencanals
removed snow tinted glasses :-)
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Set my alarm for eclipse hoping for good viewing. Looks touch and go for here with cloud out west coldest night of winter currently at -3C that’s not bad going for here! 

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Up to look at the moon and it's down to -3.7 and falling here in SWF,  another cold one. 
 

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