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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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all in all a cracking winters day 

notice the hunt is on again for cold Feb 3rd is the new Jan 24th which was the new 16th of Jan ! if you want   a real laugh look through the archive model thread for before Christmas !! By now should have been in the grip of a national emergency if you would of believed the hype.

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Coldest night of the winter so far in the SE -

Possibly a -7 / -8 in the frost hollows

widely -2 / -3

 

Expecting -5c at home

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4 hours ago, Hotspur61 said:

Well the bbc news 24 latest forecast have the front passing through the SE AS AN ALL RAIN event although after which we may get the odd wintry shower afterwards.sadly think they will be right.Downs and children’s may get a temporary covering if they are lucky.Amazing as soon as front reaches N France it all turns to snow but then dew points are so much colder(-6 to-8)).Incredible how about 30-50 miles makes so much difference(from East Kent)

The ECMWF has so far not showed any snow away from higher ground in the north and west of England along (back edge of) the front sweeping SE Monday night, GFS precipitation charts have, but would ignore them.

However, the cold NWly flow on Tuesday could feed in showers through the Cheshire Gap then through the Midlands towards London + SE in the afternoon which could fall as snow looking at progged DPs and temps, seen this happen quite a few times.

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Edited by Nick F

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Beautiful winters day here. 

-5c on the 9am dog walk with thick frost and blue sky. 

Up on the hills of Ampthill Park with the shallow mist in the walk way valley paths looking down was truly stunning. 

Frost on the ground all day in shaded areas. 

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Evening gang, 

What I think will happen Monday into Tuesday with the front is rain to start and then back edge snow. Models also suck at evaporative cooling which could take place in any heavier bursts, which look quite likely as its a fairly lively cold front. 

Its incredibly difficult in these situations to get the rain/snow switch forcast right. 99% of the time its down to live local observations and data. You win some you loose some. 

I don't think it will settle as the front doesn't stick around long enough for the more conductive conditions for settling snow.

That said, it looks as though the Cheshire gap might come in handy, although a very long land track to our region many times Ive experienced snow from it here. 

Looks like more orginsed showers too could pep up.. 

Tonight will be the 3rs frost on the trot here.. Winter has finally arrived 

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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

The moon is huge tonight

lass, this is a family forum.😱

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4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I always worry when I see snow forecast to cover the 'children', Hotspur!😨

Anywho, I expect that the greatest danger might (overnight frost permitting) come not from snow but from cold rain/sleet/wet snow falling onto frozen ground? Not a pleasant breakfast-time commute...?

Tried to edit it as meant Chilterns but predictive text made it go all wrong lol!!

Edited by Hotspur61

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Stlll cant quite believe we have hit 96 Pages and not even seen a flake of snow 🤣

That in itself is quite staggering

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At last, CMA model is in line with GFS

anim_hlf0.gif

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moon is very clear tonight and full, if we keep the clear skies might get up to see it turn red as it is going to tomorrow morning ..

Attachment-1.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Stlll cant quite believe we have hit 96 Pages and not even seen a flake of snow 🤣

That in itself is quite staggering

Lol you should see how many pages of drivel has been posted in the MOD thread and no snow

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What a treat to be out walking the dog today. Clear, crisp air; beautiful, all too rare (this year) winter sun and the sheer joy of white pockets of frost contrasting with brightly coloured sun warmed grass and winter crops.  Invigorating and mood enhancing. 

Still -1, the black car has remained white all day in the shade and will be horrid to clear at 06:45 in the forecasted freezing fog but today, at least, the sun shone and for a few hours all felt right with the world. 

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16 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Lol you should see how many pages of drivel has been posted in the MOD thread and no snow

Yes that is also quite staggering I will give you that

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Country file forecast have gone with a North Easterly Wednesday/Thursday with possibility of a few centimetres over East Anglia, Essex and Kent.

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53 minutes ago, yamkin said:

At last, CMA model is in line with GFS

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It was showing bitter  easterlies for days and days and now look at it,another model I shall not be looking at again😒

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5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

It was showing bitter  easterlies for days and days and now look at it,another model I shall not be looking at again😒

quite - has the CMA ever led the way ...?

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8 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

quite - has the CMA ever led the way ...?

Gone off Chinese takeaways now 🤣

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12 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Gone off Chinese takeaways now 🤣

yes too much MSG !!

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Clear & bitter here

-2.2c

The air outside reminds me of when I went to Iceland !

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It must be cold it’s -0.1C here where we see UHI in full pelt got down to -2C last night was around 3C this time last night skies cleared.. even colder tonight?

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We'll we've made it in to the minuses here tonight, -0.3 for now. Didn't quite get there last night.

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 -2 at shoreham airport already so much for mild south coast but local stations on wunder for my area all showing 0°C So dunno bring on spring

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Edited by JK1

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-1 here at the moment, just walked to the petrol garage, cars all icing up, nearly went  over as where they use the pressure washer, it was shear ice, blimey dangerous just getting blooming electric :cold:😀

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Snow chances are there this week, albeit an outside bet.

Chance 1 - back edge snow as the cold front clears around 5-7am on Tuesday - chance of a slushy layer on the Downs 50% risk

Chance 2 - Kent streamer possibly to set up Thursday/Friday if the Arpege has it right - though it would be a case of wet snow only with altitude and cold rain for most - 20% chance

Both of these worth keeping an eye out for.

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