Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    Morning all,

    Up early with the Wife before she starts her early morning shift. Have just seen a recording of Weather For The Week Ahead with "Mr.Mild", Darren Bett. Despite mentioning the "S" word, he seemed to delight in telling us, "This will be NO, Beast From The East". No wonder he's so popular on this Forum. Not!! :nonono:

    Really liking the UKMO this morning and their t120 chart is yet again a similar synoptic set-up to what happened on 7th February 1983.

                 UKMO (t120) JAN.24th. 

    image.thumb.png.428d966ba9d6b78957b763e81d3940b4.png

    After a similarly benign first couple of months of Winter '1982/83, there was an abrupt change when an area of low pressure dived down the N.Sea and parked itself, just to the S.E., of us. See archive chart below:

    image.thumb.png.acc02ba6d983edef2faeac101df10278.png

    I won't repeat all the details of the "Snow Chase" I went on with my first Wife. All the details of that event, appear in a post of 11 hours ago.

    Although I wouldn't expect much joy, in my neck of the woods, too much Northerly component in the flow!! But if I was living in "Lottieland" (eastern most part of the North Downs), I'd be hoping the UKMO have called this correctly, after all it is only 5 days away. As my post of 11 hours ago states, this sort of flow in Feb.1983 dropped copious amounts of snow on Capel-le-Ferne, a village on top of the N.Downs, not a million miles away from Lottie. 

    Have just seen the ECM run and they seem to want to play the "Party Pooper". We need that low to make a clean break and dive down the North Sea, a la UKMO. We don't want to see that little low that's formed between Scotland/Norway, on the 00z ICON. It's stopping the deeper cold from Continental Europe, backing westwards!! Hoping the 00z JMA rolling out now, will come to our rescue!!

    Will be phoning local Meteorologist Ian Currie, later this morning, for his latest views. Won't be phoning him tonight, for fear of Colette's evening meal being ruined again!!

    Regards,

    Tom.  :hi:

    Edited by TomSE12
    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

    Morning

    Be nice if it was right Tom, but time will tell as always. 

    Not sure I dare look in the model thread this morning if Ben’s post is anything to go by. I think the oft repeated “get the cold in first” saying is worth remembering as snow surprises can pop up anywhere!

    Current temp here 1.4c, DP -1c overcast and breezy from the SE.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    21 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

    Morning

    Be nice if it was right Tom, but time will tell as always. 

    Not sure I dare look in the model thread this morning if Ben’s post is anything to go by. I think the oft repeated “get the cold in first” saying is worth remembering as snow surprises can pop up anywhere!

    Current temp here 1.4c, DP -1c overcast and breezy from the SE.

    Just pipping you by 0.1c

    D3CA3014-703D-4489-B387-6931A1E8850F.thumb.jpeg.2096b0a4b1c159f8bd489da6e533cd0e.jpeg

    Some more PPN about 20 mins away

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
    3 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

    Morning

    Be nice if it was right Tom, but time will tell as always. 

    Not sure I dare look in the model thread this morning if Ben’s post is anything to go by. I think the oft repeated “get the cold in first” saying is worth remembering as snow surprises can pop up anywhere!

    Current temp here 1.4c, DP -1c overcast and breezy from the SE.

    Hi Lottie,

    Yes let's hope UKMO are right, if so your area SHOULD, do well. Ah Feb 1983, Capel resembled a Siberian wasteland!!

    You would never have thought that Bromley and Capel were located in the same County, albeit they're a long way apart.

    I have some lovely photos of my son and daughter (Antony and Hayley), up to their knees in snow at Capel, either Feb 1991 or 1994, I'm not sure. My children have the photos over in Chislehurst. I'll have to dig them out, as I nearly had to that day at Capel!! I also have some lovely photos of them feeding deer at a snow blanketed, Knole Park, Sevenoaks, again either Feb 1991 or 1994. We had a lovely day in Sevenoaks. Some of the photos are almost Lowryesque. Matchstick figures silhouetted against the snow covered landscape. Lots of people were sledging on the slopes around Knole Park. Plenty on dinner trays, black bin liners, anything they could lay their hands on. I'll have to post the photos up, when I can find them.

    Regards,

    Tom. :hi:

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
  • Weather Preferences: weather, especially snow, and a lovely frost
  • Location: Essex near Ongar

    Just had a few small flakes coming down, had to look very closely, but hey it's a start ?

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    Yesterday's 12z JMA, was virtually identical to the 00z UKMO. Yesterday's JMA chart below with 00z UKMO, chart.

                        JMA Chart

    image.thumb.png.804c56c5ea1eb6999088a9712491a9a2.png

                   00z UKMO Chart

    image.thumb.png.eaa3343a45407dd6e1792ae56080edf1.png

    Regards,

    Tom. :hi:

     

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl

    And right on time,after the boom charts that have been showing for 3-4 days,the inevitable downgrades begin,might just be a wobble,but I can't help the nagging feeling that it's going wrong yet again,ecm has gone from us having snow and north easterlies,to a south westerly,you just can't make it up

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent

    Chillier this morning with similar conditions to yesterday, dry and calm. We had our first negative low last night since 15th Dec at -0.2C 

    So at 09:00

    Current Temp: 2.2C 

    Real Feel: -4.8C

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Winter of discontent ?

    More like the Day 10 Winter

    Have a feeling the Low that was in the Plains yesterday is not behaving like it was modelled to and this is why the Models are struggling. Lots of my friends out there were expecting a whole dumping of snow and only got a dusting, if the Projected modelling at T24 is all over the place what hope at T120

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
    5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Winter of discontent ?

    More like the Day 10 Winter

    Have a feeling the Low that was in the Plains yesterday is not behaving like it was modelled to and this is why the Models are struggling. Lots of my friends out there were expecting a whole dumping of snow and only got a dusting, if the Projected modelling at T24 is all over the place what hope at T120

    So true,everything so far has been 10 days away,cmon ecm,sort yourself out

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    Every winter is a Day 10 winter..

    A wise man once told me to just follow the Met Office and BBC forecasts for updates on cold/snow. Wise words indeed.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    CMA - Chinese Model is still showing consistency with the very cold air over UK/Ireland ❄️?️

    anim_keu3.gif

    anim_bye7.gif

    Edited by yamkin
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
    40 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Winter of discontent ?

    More like the Day 10 Winter

    Have a feeling the Low that was in the Plains yesterday is not behaving like it was modelled to and this is why the Models are struggling. Lots of my friends out there were expecting a whole dumping of snow and only got a dusting, if the Projected modelling at T24 is all over the place what hope at T120

    quite !  winter of discontent should be in the swear filter on here !

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
    6 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

    quite !  winter of discontent should be in the swear filter on here !

    Along with potential

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Surrey

    Now at t+72 on the GFS 06z guys and girls... Starting to get within semi reliable now.. come on high RES models keep the cheer going tomorrow. 

    gfs-2-72.png

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny; chilly and sunny; thunderstorms; extreme
  • Location: West Barnes, London, 18m ASL

    and in other news, share price of wilkinson sword has errr soared

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex

    Thank you @Ben Lewis I’m sure things will definitely change in the next few days. It’s hard on a normal day with little ones let  alone little ones that can’t go in the cold. 

    I have to admit I haven’t been to the mod thread this morning, I’ve seen little snippets on here so I can guess the general feel over there.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

    Snow has been for this morning has been forecasted for Thurrock wunderground but it has not materialised.

    If it snows, this is what I would like to see.  The photo was taken on Sunday 5th February 2012

     

    Sunday 5th February 2012.b.jpg

    Edited by Katrine Basso
    Description photo
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]

    Think I’ll move back to Canada ❄️ lol . Keep the faith. It’ll snow this year. Maybe Dec this year ?

    Edited by CanadianCoops
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
    6 minutes ago, Bedfordblues73 said:

    Lots of towels being thrown in on the Mod thread , Winter over etc.... might give it a miss for a while .......

    Yes it's all going the going the way of the pear (again) seems to be the general vibe. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Chelsfield, Orpington (Kent / SE London) - 115m ASL
  • Location: Chelsfield, Orpington (Kent / SE London) - 115m ASL
    1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

    Hi Lottie,

    Yes let's hope UKMO are right, if so your area SHOULD, do well. Ah Feb 1983, Capel resembled a Siberian wasteland!!

    You would never have thought that Bromley and Capel were located in the same County, albeit they're a long way apart.

    I have some lovely photos of my son and daughter (Antony and Hayley), up to their knees in snow at Capel, either Feb 1991 or 1994, I'm not sure. My children have the photos over in Chislehurst. I'll have to dig them out, as I nearly had to that day at Capel!! I also have some lovely photos of them feeding deer at a snow blanketed, Knole Park, Sevenoaks, again either Feb 1991 or 1994. We had a lovely day in Sevenoaks. Some of the photos are almost Lowryesque. Matchstick figures silhouetted against the snow covered landscape. Lots of people were sledging on the slopes around Knole Park. Plenty on dinner trays, black bin liners, anything they could lay their hands on. I'll have to post the photos up, when I can find them.

    Regards,

    Tom. :hi:

    Hi Tom,

    I suspect it was 1991 - I was at school in Sandwich at the time, which closed early as the snow started coming down and we barely made it home to Thanet before everything stopped and we were snowed in for a couple of days. That was the deepest and most disruptive snow, I believe, since 1987 and really sticks in my memory (mostly because I was so bored being stuck at home, I actually got completely up to date with my GCSE coursework before school reopened ?)

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...