SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just to illustrate my post above, if there is a lot of N. in the flow and it becomes a direct Northerly or indeed a NNE, most of the Region will probably miss out on Snow Showers and those members in East Kent, will be the beneficiaries.

The charts below are from the 06z GFS run. Of course, it's way too early to get hooked up on degrees of wind direction!!

And nor in anyway, is it meant to be a definitive Forecast. We have to see how the synoptics, set-up first.

Also other factors need to be taken into account. I can vividly remember a Winter when the Met Office had issued a Severe Weather Warning for parts of Kent and East Sussex, for heavy and prolonged Snow Showers but nothing, "kicked off"". This was due to an overhang of cloud, associated with a front close by, over NE France/Belgium. This prevented convection initiating over the southern N.Sea/Thames Estuary/Straits of Dover and the forecast was a "bust". So there are other factors to consider, when looking out for "Streamers" to form.

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited January 18, 2019 by TomSE12

[Jimmyh]

funny Tom how timelines equate to probably exactly 10years to the day since the best ever streamer that i can remember.. dropped untold snow to beckenham and elmers end, Nothing ran that week on the trains. Started about 8ish in th evening and was still going the following morning over a foot dropped and seeing one of the solutions shows -12 temps over us

[yamkin]

 

[Timmytour]

4 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

funny Tom how timelines equate to probably exactly 10years to the day since the best ever streamer that i can remember.. dropped untold snow to beckenham and elmers end, Nothing ran that week on the trains. Started about 8ish in th evening and was still going the following morning over a foot dropped and seeing one of the solutions shows -12 temps over us

Probably the same one we did very well out of in Hertfordshire.  I remember it being a sunday evening.The following day I was due to pick up my then wife and kids from the airport after a trip to Ireland they had. The forecast we had was snow from 1pm on monday that could give us six inches.  But it started snowing steadily from 7pm on that sunday evening and continued throughout the night and the next morning.  The flight was cancelled (they didn't make it back until the thursday in the end).  By 10am on the monday morning we had had 7 inches and they were still talking about it 'starting' to snow from lunchtime onwards!   In the end, the snow that did come turned out to be a disappointing sleet that never really added to the amount we had already had.  the snow from the streamer turned out to be the only lot of snow we got in that spell.  I remember different places getting hit at different times.  Nonetheless it did stay around long enough for my kids to be amazed at how much there was on the way back from Luton on that thursday, even though it was well down from the levels it had been!

[Katrine Basso]

It has been a lovely sunny morning but the sunshine has not been seen for over an hour.  It is not dull and the sky is filled with beautiful clouds.

[LightningLover]

I saw a beautiful part of a sun halo earlier!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 hours ago, Sharpedge said:

What are your thoughts for Tuesday Surrey?

Way to early to call I'm afraid, won't know till sunday/Monday and even theb I expect some last minute changes down to the wire. 

Ideally you want the low to be as less of a low as possible and be slightly west allowing colder air to stay in situ longer without mixing the cold air out to much 

[lawrenk]

3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi James,

My fellow Bromleyite. As Steve M. stated above and indeed yourself, too much Northerly component, we both need an ENE, flow.

Experienced a few when I lived with my parents, just off Burnt Ash Lane. 

Archive chart below, of a White Xmas, "Thames Streamer" (with thunder):

Now the archive chart featuring the most potent "Thames Streamer", I've witnessed, again with thunder. I'm sure Steve remembers this:

As Steve suggests, a NE flow, will more than likely give a "mid-Kent to E.Sussex Streamer"

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Thanks Tom.

Yes. a NE tends to be good for me as I’m at the “end of the Kent Streamer line” whilst an E or even ENE often sees me miss out.

Hopefully, if we see a slider or two, once the cold air is in place, we’ll all be in on the action, though any views on marginality as I’m about 10 miles from the coast. Hoping if the air is coming off the continent from a SE direction in that scenario we’ll be OK.

[Isabellesnanny]

Miles to early to ask probably but we are flying out from Stanstead on the 2nd after driving up to Norfolk from Croydon  on the 1st, would love to see a bit of winter weather but with reports of snowmaggedon and the country grinding to a halt for weeks, are we talking the sort of conditions that would prevent the airports from operating normally. As I say I know a while out but unsure whether to put the flip flops I have just packed back in the wardrobe.

[Dami]

Well, I've worked out how to get Hubs to go to the shop. Tell him it *might* snow a bit next week. Then he panics he might not get out of the village so he and bubs have gone shopping. This is from someone who will tell me 'it's bucketing down' and it's only drizzle. I have not told him about the charts for next Friday, he wants his steak dinner.

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Dami

[SMU]

Got home 45 mins ago & already from a starting point of 3c we are now at 2.3c

Dropping fast !

Possible surprises tonight Especially above >150M

[James Gold]

Well this rates pretty highly on my clobbered-o-meter

[fluid dynamic]

Have spotted my car winter tyres down the end of the garden. Will putting them on activate the SE snowshield? 

maybe i shouldn't have mentioned it

[danm]

5 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi James,

My fellow Bromleyite. As Steve M. stated above and indeed yourself, too much Northerly component, we both need an ENE, flow.

Experienced a few when I lived with my parents, just off Burnt Ash Lane. 

Archive chart below, of a White Xmas, "Thames Streamer" (with thunder):

 

Now the archive chart featuring the most potent "Thames Streamer", I've witnessed, again with thunder. I'm sure Steve remembers this:

 

As Steve suggests, a NE flow, will more than likely give a "mid-Kent to E.Sussex Streamer"

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

Agree, although with such a cyclonic setup you would expect troughs and bands of snow to push through, rather than just localised streamers. 

[James Gold]

1 minute ago, danm said:

 

Agree, although with such a cyclonic setup you would expect troughs and bands of snow to push through, rather than just localised streamers. 

Certainly hoping for that, runs today anyway look a little more NE, not that that’s a massive shift it’s just a variation of the main theme

[Katrine Basso]

The temperature on my mobile phone says that it is 2°C at 18:15.

[Donna3397]

I try my hardest to keep up with the mod thread with no luck. I’m slightly worried about the 28th my bubba needs to go to the Evalina children’s hospital in London. She has damaged lungs. I’m worried we will not get there, get there then and get stuck or that it might be far to cold for her (she has to keep out of cold weather, I really don’t want to get stuck in a train with a baby in freezing weather. I think it will just be a close range decision. Some people in the mod thread have said the 28th will be crazy cold. 

[Dbarb]

21 minutes ago, James Gold said:

Well this rates pretty highly on my clobbered-o-meter

Think if that came off we would be looking at a non stop Thames streamer/ prolonged snow events with feet of drifting snow!

[jright35]

18:00 Iwade nr Sittingbourne 

[Ben Lewis]

46 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

I try my hardest to keep up with the mod thread with no luck. I’m slightly worried about the 28th my bubba needs to go to the Evalina children’s hospital in London. She has damaged lungs. I’m worried we will not get there, get there then and get stuck or that it might be far to cold for her (she has to keep out of cold weather, I really don’t want to get stuck in a train with a baby in freezing weather. I think it will just be a close range decision. Some people in the mod thread have said the 28th will be crazy cold. 

Hi @DonnaThw 

Try not to worry to much at this stage, until those crazy charts come within a 72h -92h range take with a pinch of salt. 

Its happened before and it will happen again (not necessarily now) snow nirvana charts at day 7 all but vanished/severely watered down 2 days later. 

Tuesday possible snow is still million miles away and Meto have me down as rain. 

All the best to you and the little one. X 

ps.. Latest ECM is still out at day 7 (lala  land) before it gets interesting. 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Ben Lewis

[runboy]

36 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:

Have spotted my car winter tyres down the end of the garden. Will putting them on activate the SE snowshield? 

maybe i shouldn't have mentioned it

Don't worry, the two snow shovels I ordered have arrived today so I won't need them for a few winters yet

Seriously though it does look good over on the mod thread. I wonder when we'll see the first "will it snow in X" posts?

[fluid dynamic]

5 minutes ago, runboy said:

Don't worry, the two snow shovels I ordered have arrived today so I won't need them for a few winters yet

Seriously though it does look good over on the mod thread. I wonder when we'll see the first "will it snow in X" posts?

there could be a dozen suicides if it does come off !   Will leave the snow tyres alone and walk away

[tinybill]

all i say   things  in our area just could  get very interesting   after  Tuesday  if  the  models are  right

[Tom Quintavalle]

Having just seen the UKMO 12z run, the synoptic set-up at t144,  brought back fantastic memories of a "Snow Chase" I went on with my first Wife, in February 1983. My son was coming up to 2 years old and my Wife was 2 months pregnant, with our daughter.

         UKMO for  24th JAN. (t144)

               

                  FEB.7th 1983

I can't believe I dragged her all the way down to East Kent. I'd heard that copious amounts of snow had fallen in the village of Capel-le-Ferne, high on the eastern part of the North Downs and over-looking the Channel.

       

My son and daughter and my poor lady Wife, who had to trek through the snow when 2 months pregnant. It's what happens when you marry a "Snow Junkie"!!

We caught a train from Bromley South to Dover. We'd only had a light dusting of snow in Bromley. Snow depths didn't start increasing until we had got passed the Medway towns and arrived at Faversham. The snow depths started to increase dramatically, when we went past Canterbury. Going through the old Kent Coalfield village of Snowdown, the snow must have been over 6 inches deep on the platform. There was close to around 6 inches of snow in the centre of Dover. We walked down to the shingle beach and snow lay right up to the waters edge!! I then decided to get a bus up to Capel. The village lies on the road that runs between, Dover and Folkestone. When I asked for the fares to Capel the bus driver looked at me, as if I was mad!! "You really don't want to go up there mate, with a buggy", he exclaimed.

         EAST KENT COALFIELD

As the road rose out of Dover, the countryside resembled Siberia. When we got off the bus at Capel the snow depth was around a foot deep, on the pavements with a lot of drifting!! But bless my poor Wife she didn't complain and pushing the buggy, was nigh on impossible for me.  That coastline is punctuated with a lot of Bungalows and the snow had drifted up to their eaves. Speaking to the locals, it had snowed for around 36 hours, continuously. Quite a few properties had been struck by lightning, between Margate and Folkestone. I read an article of the event, a little while later. The catalyst for such prolonged and heavy thundery snow showers was anomalously high S.S.T's, in the southern N.Sea and Straits of Dover.

I do remember that Steve M., included my account of the "Snow Chase", in a Newsletter he wrote back then.  

Now I'm not in anyway suggesting there will be a similar event next Thursday but those two synoptic charts, are pretty similar. But they are good examples of the type of Synoptic set-up required, for an East Kent "Streamer".

Regards,

Tom (the "Snow Junkie") 

Edited January 18, 2019 by TomSE12

[fluid dynamic]

28 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:

there could be a dozen suicides if it does come off !   Will leave the snow tyres alone and walk away

Ps i forgot i bought a snow shovel too, in advance of That Failed festering Easterly.... lesson learned