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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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43 minutes ago, Steve C said:

Run of the mill winter storm for sure. We have similar every winter. The only reason a fair number of trees have come down is that trees grow old and die and crash to earth naturally, sometimes with little prompting. This moderately strong blow was enough.

I'd say we haven't had a major winter storm for many years in our patch (maybe an unnaturally long "lull"?) Possibly 2002 but I'd go back to the Burns' Day Storm of 1990. At that point, in 1990, it was our third big storm in under 15 years. 

Storms just after Christmas 1999 caused gusts of over 100mph in Paris (Storms Lothar and Martin?) Paris is possibly slightly less 'favoured" for major windstorms than us. When we get our next major windstorm, some of you will be shocked, if you think the last 24 hours were out of the ordinary. 

 

Tbh I think it has a lot to do with the dry summer too. A lot of trees got weakened by that. 

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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Tbh I think it has a lot to do with the dry summer too. A lot of trees got weakened by that. 

Yes, Alexis. Cannot have helped. Didn't think of that factor tbh.☺️

I was going to post an illustrative photo from Spring, where a large branch crashed onto a cul de sac road I was returning along. I'd originally made the outward leg less than an hour earlier. It made me wonder if I could get back - a large hard to shift bough. This was very early in the morning and I know I was the only vehicle and no-one else was about. Light winds. Made me think a bit!

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Hi peeps 😊

Hope you all are ok and having a wonderful Saturday. Not been a bad day here in Walthamstow after last nights winds, it felt quite pleasant in the sun. 

Looks like tonight and tomorrow we have some heavy rain coming our way. The latest metoffice update mentions nothing wintriness tomorrow although temperatures will be 6 deg. 

Then next week we may see some spring like weather where the sun comes out. We will be under the influence of high pressure. Unfortunately nothing wintry showing as yet, but where this high pressure will go is the big question mark. However just looking at temperatures across Europe which are not dramatically low,  if this high does go North the question is will there be enough cold air to tap into. Time is ticking along and the chances for us to get a noteworthy freeze are becoming less and less as the days go on. 

What a winter it has been one that was meant to have so much potential due to outside factors, but sadly one that has not delivered what us coldies have waited for, We need a dramatic turnaround in the next few weeks to make up this winter. Sadly without this it certainly won't be one of those that is remembered for the good reasons. 

Wishing you all a lovely evening and thank you to all those interesting posts on here.

we may not see it this time but the search for our winter wonderland will never end.

regards 😊😊😊😊

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E17, I'd be happy with either a cold spell, with snow, or even an early taste of Spring, with frost in the morning and mild sunshine afterwards. Both good for my soul. 

North Sea haar, fret, gloom, I'm depressed typing it!

Cheers for the optimistic post!

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Just started to rain ☔️ here now in Walthamstow not heavy spits and spots. 

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20 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps 😊

Hope you all are ok and having a wonderful Saturday. Not been a bad day here in Walthamstow after last nights winds, it felt quite pleasant in the sun. 

Looks like tonight and tomorrow we have some heavy rain coming our way. The latest metoffice update mentions nothing wintriness tomorrow although temperatures will be 6 deg. 

Then next week we may see some spring like weather where the sun comes out. We will be under the influence of high pressure. Unfortunately nothing wintry showing as yet, but where this high pressure will go is the big question mark. However just looking at temperatures across Europe which are not dramatically low,  if this high does go North the question is will there be enough cold air to tap into. Time is ticking along and the chances for us to get a noteworthy freeze are becoming less and less as the days go on. 

What a winter it has been one that was meant to have so much potential due to outside factors, but sadly one that has not delivered what us coldies have waited for, We need a dramatic turnaround in the next few weeks to make up this winter. Sadly without this it certainly won't be one of those that is remembered for the good reasons. 

Wishing you all a lovely evening and thank you to all those interesting posts on here.

we may not see it this time but the search for our winter wonderland will never end.

regards 😊😊😊😊

If it goes nw then yes there is. Straight from the pole.

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Let's keep our fingers crossed 🤞 and hope it plays in our favour. I would prefer the winds to be from a NE direction or E as this is best for our region. Any snow showers have.a better chance of penetrating inland rather than s Northerly where it is more of the coastal counties that favour better. However having said that if there is a trough coming down from the north then all parts can favour. 

Thr only worrying thing now is the question of time, which is running out so we need something positive to start showing on the horizon in the next two weeks, 😊

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About the weather. It's been another breezy day here in the Hastings area, albeit with some reasonable spells of hazy sunshine. It felt quite pleasant out of the wind with a Tmax of 10.0c and winds gusting to 40mph locally.

Now for something that has annoyed me. The sea state has been quite rough for a number of days here, not surprising given the fact it's been a blowing a gale or near gale for much of the past week.

However that didn't deter 2 'rufty tufty' types from setting out in their kayaks earlier today despite the conditions. As a result of their inconsiderate foolishness the lifeboats from both Hastings and Eastbourne were launched, and were joined by a rescue helicopter to assist their safe return to shore.

The RNLI is my charity of choice. I hope the idiots they went out to rescue today make a huge donation.

Rant mode off now.

 

Edited by SenlacJack

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CFS 12Z Is Showing The BFTE. Long Way Off

anim_fbo4.gif

anim_zmj4.gif

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6 minutes ago, yamkin said:

CFS 12Z Is Showing The BFTE. Long Way Off

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Forever being pushed back this year!

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Rain rain and more rain, although I refuse to chuck the towel in on another winter, I do think it's going to take something of epic proportions to salvage anything, yes ive seen falling snow 3 times, and it's laid, but it's not lasted at all, and after all the tele-communications, background signals, low solar minima, blah blah blah, for some unknown reason it just hasn't, yet, delivered what we all hoped and craved

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47 minutes ago, Don said:

Forever being pushed back this year!

Let's hope the weather pattern holds out with good heights & produces the goods which will allow the models to be right 😎

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Morning all,

Again , overnight Model runs not that inspiring. Expect a lot of toy throwing and dummy spitting again, when the masses awake 

The floor of the Model thread room, could be quite a hazardous place this morning. Be careful, don't trip over a soft toy or slip on any saliva!!

Looks like Models (and MeteoGroup for that matter) aren't keen to build High Pressure, to the North/North East of the U.K. They seem to want to keep it just to our S.E. Strong arm of the Northern Jet Stream, not allowing those heights to build, further North.

             GFS 19th FEB (t216)

image.thumb.png.96bae3afcefad98f488b7a3b354b1225.png

            ECM 19th FEB (t216)

image.thumb.png.74f090df55ec3eec0ac535fc4648d7ae.png

The 00z GFS (PARA) run on the other hand, has a more encouraging look about it with High Pressure to our East, trying to throw a ridge towards southern Greenland.

       GFS (PARA) 19th FEB (t216)

image.thumb.png.8d8102111ae775dcc24c43df5c1e7dda.png

I just want to remind members where we were, on this date last year:

Ok, so the Synoptic profile to the East , quite a bit different with a Siberian High, entering the picture, Stage Right. But a strong Northern arm of the Jet Stream, as well.

             SUN.10th FEB.2018

image.thumb.png.5746e70d4d2e2a0baece0d1ee7574e06.png

Roll forward t216 (9 days). Not quite there yet but beginning to look more promising. Atlantic starting to hit the buffers and heights ridging N.E, towards Scandinavia.

image.thumb.png.1ba6e9a71f578bf71a200cf032e826a5.png

Finally, on 22nd Feb., the "Beast", started to flex its muscles.

image.thumb.png.963e015c81b6c15752c955ecb9d1f0fc.png

Now, I'm not suggesting we're on the cusp of something similar to February/March last year. Just that it's way too early, for all these premature "Obituaries" on Winter 2018/19!!

I certainly shan't be "throwing the towel", in yet. :nonono:Way too early!!

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

 

Edited by TomSE12

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Roll on spring dont want any cold weather now. 

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Rotten here, 3c and heavy rain & sleet. 

Roll on spring. 

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Wind is starting to get up a bit here, may be a small sting in the tail of this low, as the small new low moves se.

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Just had a double rainbow, followed my a moderate rain/graupel shower.

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Highest gust so far today 52 mph much more than I thought.

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Lots of weather today, squally rain, the fence panel down again, blue skies and some stunning cloudscapes. The birds have had some very beady eyes on the garden. Here's a pic of Oxshott Common just after an afternoon storm passed through.

IMG_20190210_160505.jpg

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Roll on The Siberian Beast  in March. I'm not ready for spring just yet. I'd settle even for just one more night of snow with a decent covering.

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30 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Mole was high today in Cobham

I don't recognise that spot @Badgers01. Is it good for walking? And to keep it weather-related, it's dark out now and a bit cold 🌃

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