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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Either I moved to a very sheltered area here in St Neots (unlikely being so flat), or we've been  warned over nothing yet again- I'm in the supposed firing line yet there's not even a wheelie bin down (always a good benchmark!)on the way to the station and it's a bit breezy, big deal. Did I miss some sort of chaos in the night or are we just forever in the blame/claim/cover back side culture? It's just a windy day, why do we have endless warnings about normal weather? All fine for genuinely dangerous weather but I can't recall a time when imby at least a warning was warranted yet I get 1 a week or so, it's generating a 'boy who cried wolf' effect (in my family at least). Perhaps it's because I grew up in the 80s and 90s-genuine question? 

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A few years ago, I bought my Wife a soft toy, Polar Bear. 

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As you can imagine, no Tropical animals allowed in this house, Elephants, Monkeys, Giraffes etc. :nonono:

Only those animals from cold climes, Penguins, Polar Bears, Siberian Tigers, etc!!

The chap above, we named Uncle Svarlbad. But Uncle S., has remained in Colette's wardrobe ever since, not wanting to come out and experience the heat of our house and S.E.London, in general

Poor Uncle S., is pining for the ice floes, of his native land. Colette and myself have decided to bequeath him, to my Niece's little girl. At Xmas we gave her Reggie the Reindeer.

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Evidently, Reggie has become Rudolf. But he has gone to very good home and has a specially prepared bed,next to the little girl. We've decided that Uncle S., should join Rudolf. He'll no doubt be well looked after and will no doubt find the slightly cooler air of Orpington, N.W.Kent, more acceptable to him. But we've decided to rename him, Paulo. The little girl, in my reckoning, is 5/8th's Italian. Her Father is Italian and my Niece, a quarter Italian, and Paulo the Poar Bear, has a nice "ring" to it!! Although, I can't remember seeing any Polar Bears during my holidays, in Southern Italy!! :nonono:

Below is a not very good photo of my Niece, her Italian husband (Raffaele) and the little girl, in question. 

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The photo was taken during a meal to celebrate my Niece's birthday. Raffaele manages an Italian Restaurant in Bromley, called Studio Gusto.

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An unashamed plug I know but if you're a lover of Italian food and find yourself in Bromley for shopping or whatever, it's well worth a visit. The food is delicious. Raffaele especially appointed a Neapolitan Chef and revamped the menu, to reflect that.

I'll finish with a "cherry picked" chart, from the 00z ECM run.

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Here's hoping that charts like these come to fruition for the last couple of weeks of Winter and like, Paulo the Polar Bear, we'll all be happy, Arctic bunnies!!

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

 

Edited by TomSE12
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Good morning everyone! Well the wind in Thurrock is strong enough to shut the QE2 bridge leading to the usual traffic chaos around where I live! It’s an absolute nightmare around Lakeside anc the surrounding areas! 

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Well looking at the extended EPS an early spring certainly doesn’t look on the cards. 

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53 minutes ago, shotski said:

Well looking at the extended EPS an early spring certainly doesn’t look on the cards. 

i just planted my melons to get an early start:oops:

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Perhaps more interestingly is that after this wet week we are back with quite a dry outlook. Any lengthy dry spell in the summer may bring some water troubles for this neck of the woods, especially as we did have that protracted summer last year.

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CMA 0Z Has Decided To Join The BFTE Party!

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4 hours ago, James1979 said:

Either I moved to a very sheltered area here in St Neots (unlikely being so flat), or we've been  warned over nothing yet again- I'm in the supposed firing line yet there's not even a wheelie bin down (always a good benchmark!)on the way to the station and it's a bit breezy, big deal. Did I miss some sort of chaos in the night or are we just forever in the blame/claim/cover back side culture? It's just a windy day, why do we have endless warnings about normal weather? All fine for genuinely dangerous weather but I can't recall a time when imby at least a warning was warranted yet I get 1 a week or so, it's generating a 'boy who cried wolf' effect (in my family at least). Perhaps it's because I grew up in the 80s and 90s-genuine question? 

Over here we currently have hail, strong wind, thunder, not seen any lightning, sky black as it gets, plagues of locusts.Every type of weather at once.

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Here's that potential snowfall, I've been mentioning the last couple of days. Below, is the 06z GFS (Para) run, for early evening on Sunday. It's certainly something to keep an eye on. A correction South, wouldn't go amiss. This chart shows snow accumulation. Even if we don't see any snow depth, it's entirely possible we'll see some falling snow, before the system, clears away.

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As I've been suggesting, it could well be a rain>snow, event: 

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Regards,

Tom :hi:

 

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I expect a flip in the models concerning what the high behind this weekends low does. Might be wrong of course, but I think it will be stronger and not topple.

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7 hours ago, lassie23 said:

i just planted my melons to get an early start:oops:

Not doing melons this year...going to try...loofahs instead.🤨

Might hold off the first round of planting as we might get another cold spell, possibly..oh and  the slight issue of moving house and having nowhere to put anything!!

I'd laugh if Feb fog index had fast returns - number of Feb fogs equals number of Feb snowfalls!!😁

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Haven’t been on her a few days, me and the bubbas’s have been poorly with a virus. The weather here last night wasn’t as bad as what I thought, we do have good double glazing but can usually hear the bad weather but last night I couldn’t even tell that it was raining till around 22.30. It’s been a lovely dad here today 

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Not even a decent storm to look forward too.......... what happened to the Met Office warnings for the next few days ? High pressure falls in next week so no exciting stuff!

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Evening all,

Woke up from my obligatory afternoon nap and thought I 'd have a quick pop into the Model thread. Wished I hadn't bothered!! :nonono:

Now feel totally drained again, think I'll skip dinner and go back to bed!! What is a matter with some of these individuals? Totally agree with our own, MULZY. Some very typical OTT, knee jerk reactions to every frame, every kink of an isobar!! Crazy. I've been a member of Netweather for 14 years now. And as the French would say, "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!!" (The more things change, the more they stay the same!!)

Jeez and ain't that the truth!! Ridiculous statements.

Just waiting for the 12z ECM, to finish rolling out. Will the toys be put away or are we in for more obituaries, on Winter 2018/19?

Stay tuned. The Model thread Soap Opera, continues on a computer, near you!!

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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25 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Evening all,

Woke up from my obligatory afternoon nap and thought I 'd have a quick pop into the Model thread. Wished I hadn't bothered!! 

Now feel totally drained again, think I'll skip dinner and go back to bed!! What is a matter with some of these individuals? Totally agree with our own, MULZY. Some very typical OTT, knee jerk reactions to every frame, every kink of an isobar!! Crazy. I've been a member of Netweather for 14 years now. And as the French would say, "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!!" (The more things change, the more they stay the same!!)

Jeez and ain't that the truth!! Ridiculous statements.

Just waiting for the 12z ECM, to finish rolling out. Will the toys be put away or are we in for more obituaries, on Winter 2018/19?

Stay tuned. The Model thread Soap Opera, continues on a computer, near you!!

Regards,

Tom.  

Evening Tom and all,

you're quite right what irks me there are some people who have been on this site for more years than me, and they never seem to learn that Feb1991 needs to be sedated 😛...

Scandi region/blocking is notoriously difficult area for models to have a good grip on, often changes up to <72hrs. It does look likely we’ll see a settled, cold continental flow for a time, which is a significant improvement to now. Hopefully they’ll be more to add to that. We deserve it.

Edited by Daniel*
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Now there's a thing, core of heights rising to sit over Scandinavia by 15th of the month!!

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I wonder if they're all happy bunnies, now? I'm too drained, to look!!

Of course, it still might not happen But that's Weather Models for you. Get over it!!

 

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Thankfully, didn't go back to bed and had dinner. Just had one of my Wife's, delicious chicken casseroles. Colette's dumplings, are amazing!! :oops:

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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CMA 12Z Stays With The BFTE 

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2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Now there's a thing, core of heights rising to sit over Scandinavia by 15th of the month!!

image.thumb.png.9400c76276f0dcc2145efc1cb3621f4c.png

image.thumb.png.98df192bb9f8a6c344450dc26cbd08a2.png

I wonder if they're all happy bunnies, now? I'm too drained, to look!!

Of course, it still might not happen But that's Weather Models for you. Get over it!!

 

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Will that low in the Atlantic topple South East, or will the high be toppled instead by energy running over the top?

Edited by Bricriu

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On 05/02/2019 at 19:36, lassie23 said:

According to the BBC we should all be relieved that the bitter cold has gone and despite the rain, at least it will be mild now

I'm sorry to announce Fred the snowman died at 9am this morning. Born at 12 noon on 1st February he reached 165 hours . The funeral will take place on Saturday 

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Poor Fred. He put up a courageous battle.

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