SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Tom Quintavalle]

 

Woke early to the "pitter patter" of raindrops and a raging toothache, to boot!!

Came downstairs for my B.P. medication and an early morning "cuppa". A quick glance at recent radar returns, revealed that some showery rain has crossed our area, in the last few hours. Have digested last night's recording of "Weather for the week ahead", with Ben Rich.

Essentially, nothing has changed regarding the extended outlook. Remaining unsettled, windy and mild. Would like to add a little detail, regarding tomorrow morning and the weekend. Today looks fairly windy but tomorrow morning wind speeds could exceed those of today's. A wave depression tracks across the country, to our N.W, bringing a spell of heavy rai, accompanied by strong and gusty winds for a time. See chart below:

We could see a repeat performance on Saturday morning, as a another wave, this time further S.E., tracks N.E. across the country. Another spell of heavy rain and strong winds likely, for our region. See chart below:

Wouldn't be surprised to see some Meto warnings for our region, in respect of these two events, in the coming hours.

Ben then stated the weather should calm down by midweek, as a strong ridge of High Pressure exerts it's influence, over our region. and still on the mild side. Frost was still possible though, in any clear spells, overnight.

That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended forecast and it's implications, for our region. IMO, no sign of any cold weather on the horizon at the moment, for us.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by TomSE12

[weathergeek]

@TomSE12 I just wanted to thank you for your very informative posts of both current conditions and memories of winters past! They're a great read!!x

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Todays top gusts of wind

 

Inland 45-50mph MAX out

Coast 55-60MPH MAX

Tomorrow 

Inland 55-60MPH

Coast Maybe a 70mph somewhere..

 

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

GFS 06z looks to confirm a lively few days coming up, for our region. Tomorrow morning's wave depression still on track to impact our region with some strong winds and heavy rain:

A repeat performance still on the cards for Saturday morning, too. A stormy and wet introduction to December, likely.

Could well be some localised flooding issues, come the end of the weekend.

Regards,

Tom. 

[seaside 60]

I dont know whats worse cold cloudy and damp/wet or warm cloudy and damp/wet.

These are really the conditions I hate most, days on days with just cloud and drizzle/damp.

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Met Office warning is odd yes in the right place but at least cover the south coast to

[lassie23]

this is what makes UK winters utter garbage

[Dami]

Oh dear, kicking off  bit in the hunt for cold thread. 

I keep hoping to see a snow symbol appear for mid December but sadly I don't think so. 13C with drizzle strong winds and no promise of better.

ho hum. I probably could copy paste this post for the rest of the week.

*goes off to watch the snow on reindeer Cam*

 

[lassie23]

BBC were spot in. met office not so

[username home]

winter 18/19 is over before it started

see you all this time next year

[Tom Quintavalle]

Having just seen Helen Willetts forecast, MeteoGroup are suggesting tomorrow morning the main action will be off to our N.W. Still pretty windy but perhaps rain not so much an issue, as was thought earlier. Now awaiting this evening's runs, regarding Saturday late morning/lunchtime's perceived bad weather. If the models have corrected tomorrow's wind/rain N.W, Saturday's could be on top of us, as that looked a fraction too far S/S.E. We won't have long to find out!!

Regards,

Tom.  

[Katrine Basso]

It has been very wet and windy this afternoon. Earlier in the afternoon I looked at my rain water gauge and there was hardly any water despite yesterdays rain which was quite a wet day.  I will look again tomorrow to see if there has been any gains in the rain water in my phial.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Oh dear, just popped into the MAD thread.  I've been on this forum every Winter since 2005 (apart from when I was ill in 2015) and it really is a case of, "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose". The same reaction to every stage of a model run!! For Pete's sake, it's November 28th.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Someone posted this chart on the MAD thread, earlier. The control run from the 12z GFS ensembles.

What a 39th year Anniversary present that would be!! December 8th 1981, revisited!!

A rain to snow event, if ever there was one. Just a thought!!  

Regards,

Tom. 

 

[Ben Lewis]

Bit of a damp blowy drive home from work this evening.

ITV Anglia banging on about storm Diana bringing strong winds. Makes me cringe.

Back in the day today’s weather wouldn’t have battered an eyelid to report. Just a normal autumnal/ early winter day. 

I walked home from school in weather much much worse and it was known as a windy day and wet day, that’s it! 

The naming of storms (not even a storm) = media hype. 

Edited November 28, 2018 by Ben Lewis

[Captain Shortwave]

4 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Oh dear, just popped into the MAD thread.  I've been on this forum every Winter since 2005 (apart from when I was ill in 2015) and it really is a case of, "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose". The same reaction to every stage of a model run!! For Pete's sake, it's November 28th.

Regards,

Tom. 

Well winter is over.... 

Until Saturday

very ordinary Autumn weather after a rather quiet spell we now have some gales and rain. Shame that the blocking didn't really deliver much. Sometimes too much is made of blocked November patterns as you can easily see the pattern flip as the atmosphere cools radiply over the pole. 2014 saw blocking over Scandinavia for a good part of November and the winter that followed was fairly mild and zonal (a couple of cold snaps here and there).

Oh well enough rambling from me...

[lassie23]

December written off now too

[tinybill]

if  the radar right  we  might need a boat  its looking  very wet in our area  to day!!

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Yes lots of rain and I'm still confused by the met.. Big shift south on strongest winds from this little feature this morning although I think the warning is right the south coast is going to get a bit rough... 

Edited November 29, 2018 by Surrey

[Coopsy]

10 hours ago, lassie23 said:

December written off now too

Not quite yet....things are changing again. Might be an outlier. Who knows lol

[Dami]

got bubs into school before it phissed down. Like a boss. Too windy for an umbrella, but it's only rain and fat blobs of it too. Can't be doing with the fine misty mucky ness. Still quite dark aswell, but it's seasonal. 

OMG 2 days till  and bubs wants to do vlogmas this year.

Edited November 29, 2018 by Dami

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Looks like quite a nasty back edge.. Expect to move through around 12-1pm today 

[Tom Quintavalle]

With the wind now turning into the S.W., we could see some squally and perhaps, thundery showers, running into the southern coast of our region, as we did a while ago. Those relatively high S.S.T's  helping to spark off some heavy showers. These will die off, as the wind veers more towards the west, later. 

Saturday morning/lunchtime, sees another period of turbulent weather crossing our region. S to S.W. winds will strengthen again and a period of heavy rain will make for a very unpleasant Saturday morning, for those out doing a bit of Xmas shopping. The rain should move away and the wind lessen in strength for the whole of our region, by mid-afternoon. 

Regards,

Tom.  

 

[snowray]

This wind was horrible this morning, a tarpaulin thats covering stuff in the back garden has blow away and my wheelie bin has almost toppled over, what a pain!

[Dami]

I dare say being a delivery driver in this wild weather must be fun - watched Amazon man who had multiple drops offs, us included, try his hardest to miss the flying bins and keep his door open. Much calmer now with the sun out, although still windy. Awaiting my birthday boots which should appear in the next few hours. Only I could buy non waterproof clothing during a wet period. I am hoping for some cold come winter.