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Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

That met run screams absolutly SCREAMS- streamer alert..

Watch it elapse its almost perfect basis for streamer set up..

Pivot and draw...looks primmed!!!

I mentioned this, this morning on carol Kirk woods forecast

the estuary looked prime for a streamer of some sort

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6 minutes ago, snowfall09 said:

 

I dont have a lot of faith in the BBC weather these days.
I dont know many that do.

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Just now, seaside 60 said:

I dont have a lot of faith in the BBC weather these days.
I dont know many that do.

You wont get more high res than that!!!

 

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Sounds reasonable to me. Hopefully given the HIRLAM has gone more aggressive and the Euro4/ECM still looking ok and not totally decaying the front like ARPEGE, it should be ok! But we will see!

Yamkin, yep  that lines up with what the more aggressive models are suggesting at the moment, so hopefully another layer of confidence on that one.

Expect surprises later on ❄️❄️

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just been up on the roof terrace of my office in feltham - nr heathrow. after a very sunny morning, clouds are now rolling in at pace from the sw and it's bloody freezing!

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24 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

My area has been updated to 8 hours of snow 

From 7pm to 3am 

Light snow till 11pm

Im north of m4 

Confused

Maybe its to do with streamers

Never trust the meto graphics. For us I think its looking good for a cm or two of snow, from several hours light but patchy snow. 

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7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

That met run screams absolutly SCREAMS- streamer alert..

Watch it elapse its almost perfect basis for streamer set up..

Pivot and draw...looks primmed!!!

I am glad I am not the only person seeing it. This is a spectacular streamer set up. Of course doesn't mean for a second one will happen but that is the best bundle of ingredients I have seen for a long time.

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Hi all,

Just been outside here in Blackfriars and it is trying to rain already, I did not think anything was coming through until after dark

 

Cheers

 

FC

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Just now, frozencanals said:

Hi all,

Just been outside here in Blackfriars and it is trying to rain already, I did not think anything was coming through until after dark

 

Cheers

 

FC

Its just some patchy snizzle / drizzle. 

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Just now, frozencanals said:

Hi all,

Just been outside here in Blackfriars and it is trying to rain already, I did not think anything was coming through until after dark

 

Cheers

 

FC

I think that's the radar blob that came in off the channel this morning, moving NW. Had a couple of sleety lumps out of it in Lee. Quite a lonely journey for it across Kent, but it's made it that far.

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18 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

This is what I've read today

 

The snow front wont make it as far as north kent

The snow front will fizzle and decay

The snow front will reach London but decay

There's a chance of Streamers

There's a risk of Streamers but it's minimal

Looks like a rain mix further east but snow further west

The front might not make it at all.

 

And you wonder why people get ***ed off about this forum sometimes lol

What's wrong with that though? lot of it is bang on

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20 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

This is what I've read today

 

The snow front wont make it as far as north kent

The snow front will fizzle and decay

The snow front will reach London but decay

There's a chance of Streamers

There's a risk of Streamers but it's minimal

Looks like a rain mix further east but snow further west

The front might not make it at all.

 

And you wonder why people get ***ed off about this forum sometimes lol

Isnt that the point of a discussion forum. Bit boring if we all knew outcome.

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21 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

That met run screams absolutly SCREAMS- streamer alert..

Watch it elapse its almost perfect basis for streamer set up..

Pivot and draw...looks primmed!!!

The chance of streamers is more appealing than the current front heading our way!  keep us posted on this one!

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Perhaps some streamer potential but I'm not seeing anything significant. EURO4 has the decaying front sitting over the SE/Thames area tomorrow would possible convective potential along that boundary though looks rather marginal 

1.thumb.gif.8de7bcb91e4de6db4efad413bb722fb4.gif

Perhaps a better chance on Saturday as winds turn more NE and a Wash streamer develops, though again the signal isn't overly strong 

2.thumb.gif.b348dd75e8814ddbcdd89537c231ffee.gif

Dew Points around or slightly above freezing possibly putting stop to that risk away from higher ground

DP.thumb.gif.2d539a63b59aaa921305ba892c0dc1d8.gif

Edited by Daniel Smith
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There's talk in the SW thread of the system pivoting earlier and the implications of a mesolow for that area. I wonder how that might affect us upstream in the SE? Haven't got much work done so far today.... Skies clouded over now.

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Honestly no one knows whats going to happen, the front could be a few dozen miles further north or south than forecast and with the north sea the snow could get a kick/ streamer setup. Truly a nowcast situation. hopefull we get a streamer going into Essex overnight but who knows.

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@kold weather did I miss your 06z ec summation ?  Did it develop that small circulation like the 00z and being the heavier snow ‘blob’ through London ??

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6 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

There's talk in the SW thread of the system pivoting earlier and the implications of a mesolow for that area. I wonder how that might affect us upstream in the SE? Haven't got much work done so far today.... Skies clouded over now.

I'm not sure, I was just about to say it is pivoting earlier than expected by models.

The only model that does pivot so early is...ARPEGE....(though its too slow in terms of timing about an hour too slow, but its following the ARPEGE evolution VERY closely thus far!) ARPEGE wasn't the best run for the area though the front does come through eventually, just very much later.

However truth is no one really knows how this is going to evolve, so we shall have to wait and see.

Edited by kold weather
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Overnight FAX shows an upper front sitting across the region would could aid in shower development.

tFAX.thumb.gif.67852793eea32adee5dd52649e73dbe5.gif

Coinciding with some minimal-week upper forcing so streamer/shower potential is certainly there, the question is will it be snow?

PVA.thumb.gif.be8cfd09939344d1b0645b3ce2ef0312.gif

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When I see a streamer mentioned my ears book up! In 2009 we were right in the firing line for hours! Have us a good 9 inches. Not that I'm saying it will happen or that amount will even happen but to wake up to a winter wonderland would be amazing. Of course I could be spectacularly wrong but we can dream, eh?!

Edited by Daenerys

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4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Perhaps some streamer potential but I'm not seeing anything significant. EURO4 has the decaying front sitting over the SE/Thames area tomorrow would possible convective potential along that boundary though looks rather marginal 

1.thumb.gif.8de7bcb91e4de6db4efad413bb722fb4.gif

Perhaps a better chance on Saturday as winds turn more NE and a Wash streamer develops, though again the signal isn't overly strong 

2.thumb.gif.b348dd75e8814ddbcdd89537c231ffee.gif

Dew Points around or slightly above freezing possibly putting stop to that risk away from higher ground

DP.thumb.gif.2d539a63b59aaa921305ba892c0dc1d8.gif

Given..

But the potential had 2 be flagged.

As you know-it will/if..jump onboard rapidly...

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5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Perhaps some streamer potential but I'm not seeing anything significant. EURO4 has the decaying front sitting over the SE/Thames area tomorrow would possible convective potential along that boundary though looks rather marginal 

1.thumb.gif.8de7bcb91e4de6db4efad413bb722fb4.gif

Perhaps a better chance on Saturday as winds turn more NE and a Wash streamer develops, though again the signal isn't overly strong 

2.thumb.gif.b348dd75e8814ddbcdd89537c231ffee.gif

Dew Points around or slightly above freezing possibly putting stop to that risk away from higher ground

DP.thumb.gif.2d539a63b59aaa921305ba892c0dc1d8.gif

Why does East Anglia have positive few points again?

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