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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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As per the ASL-scale coming into play.

140/150 scale looks very decent as per higher accumulation..

As 4 any1 writting off kents chances are madness..i expect kent/parts essex 2 come into the force firing line..as the system takes a pivot..and we get an undertuck of nor-easterlys...

All looks well...

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20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

updated Hirlam depths 🙂

Just a nudge North please

 

A1404147-0E9F-4809-83DD-B4CFA46F1D9C.png

Great. Southend snowshield at 110% 😔🤬

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1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

@nick sussex do you think my location and Crowborough could possibly pass the magic 10cm mark 

Good location to be in but amounts wise I’m not making predictions ! 😎

You know in here what that leads to . I’d be less popular than a bikini salesman in Jeddah if it didn’t work out ! 😎

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Whats good with the euro 4 is that out from T30-T48 is theres a lot of PPN Nw kent etc which could well be snow !! ( as many have mentioned )

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Weather warnings all around and Peterborough is in the white gap. Gutted

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1 minute ago, Dazaaa07 said:

Weather warnings all around and Peterborough is in the white gap. Gutted

Yes m8 sadly looks like a complete miss there!!..

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1 minute ago, Dazaaa07 said:

Weather warnings all around and Peterborough is in the white gap. Gutted

Looking that way! 

Our one saving grace is that the models/forecasting for this event has been attrocious to say the least, the system itself looks extremely unpredictable, so we may well see either a fragmented front which 'peps up' or benefit from some North Sea snow showers later tonight/tomorrow. Can't rule out a covering just yet.... 

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One other GOOD bit of news is Norfolk and Suffolk get hammered by showers on the 06z ECM throughout Friday and into Saturday. Actually could be quite substantial falls from that. Hotspot would be 4-5 inches!!

Matty, the 06z ECM is really good for your area on Friday evening!! Your in the 3-4 inch range from the showers.

Edited by kold weather
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Haha so your saying Essex is the only place that misses out - Sob!! 

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Just now, kold weather said:

One other GOOD bit of news is Norfolk and Suffolk get hammered by showers on the 06z ECM throughout Friday and into Saturday. Actually could be quite substantial falls from that. Hotspot would be 4-5 inches!!

Yeah I spotted that, might temps be a bit marginal though? I'm still hoping tonight's front grazes Ipswich, would be good though if showers appear as a backstop. 

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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

One other GOOD bit of news is Norfolk and Suffolk get hammered by showers on the 06z ECM throughout Friday and into Saturday. Actually could be quite substantial falls from that. Hotspot would be 4-5 inches!!

Matty, the 06z ECM is really good for your area on Friday evening!! Your in the 3-4 inch range from the showers.

What about leicester any flurries forecasted here😔

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Whats good with the euro 4 is that out from T30-T48 is theres a lot of PPN Nw kent etc which could well be snow !! ( as many have mentioned )

Looks very marginal Steve, the Euro4 on weather.us shows its rain for coastal areas, a mix a little inland and snow west of the 0 degree longitude line (more or less!) Height would probably make a difference there.

 

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1 minute ago, pinball wizard said:

Yeah I spotted that, might temps be a bit marginal though? I'm still hoping tonight's front grazes Ipswich, would be good though if showers appear as a backstop. 

If the showers are coming from Europe you may have issues with the backstop.

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26 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I bet they don't tell the wives though, they'll spend the evening in the Pub!!

Naturally, I'd do the same lol.

PS wind has now backed se, temp and dp now dropping, even though we have sun. Hope no more west element turns up. Dp, 0.4. Now looking good for later if ppn gets here.

Edited by alexisj9

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Looks very marginal Steve, the Euro4 on weather.us shows its rain for coastal areas, a mix a little inland and snow west of the 0 degree longitude line (more or less!) Height would probably make a difference there.

 

Yeah sounds right although that square pixel is always annoying

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

One other GOOD bit of news is Norfolk and Suffolk get hammered by showers on the 06z ECM throughout Friday and into Saturday. Actually could be quite substantial falls from that. Hotspot would be 4-5 inches!!

At a complete guess, moisture field off the top Netherlands/Germany curling down onto EA coast?

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A bit of sleet/snow here now. Sevenoaks 

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53 minutes ago, dallas said:

Nick F. When is the peak for daytime heating please, if there is such a thing,

 

Thanks

Cheers Steve and Nick

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A bit 'off topic' from todays excitement, but Monday night looking pretty good for those that miss out today according to the GFS Para at least... not taking that for granted but it shows promise, could deliver a 3-4 inch event if it plays out in favour. 

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Getting concerned about nw essex... do these weather systems not realise how painful lamp post watching is....

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Looks a bit meh to me for Essex tonight, but always nice to see South Coast getting a bit of action 👍

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2 hours ago, WhiteFox said:

Ha ha! Was sitting in traffic. Although the car in front pulled away and I hadn't noticed so the car behind was getting impatient. Desnt he know there are more important things in life?

Well you are a naughty boy or girl. http://www.nopenaltypoints.co.uk/legal-use-mobile-phone-stationary-car-with-engine-running.html

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14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

One other GOOD bit of news is Norfolk and Suffolk get hammered by showers on the 06z ECM throughout Friday and into Saturday. Actually could be quite substantial falls from that. Hotspot would be 4-5 inches!!

Matty, the 06z ECM is really good for your area on Friday evening!! Your in the 3-4 inch range from the showers.

As per the MetO warnings and of more than a little interest to me. I know it only goes out to T90, but does the ECM 6z/18z run at a higher resolution than the 0z/12z? 

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So are we looking at just 1-3cm then across our region if METO are correct .? 

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