Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

Recommended Posts

Just now, warrenb said:

Light snow shower here at the moment, temp is still -2.4c

2FC9A5E8-7E0C-466D-A98E-2FE5FC61A33E.thumb.png.32452181806be90a796603f61c07bb55.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Light snow shower here at the moment, temp is still -2.4c

That is ahead of schedule..!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Latest from my man at Network Rail.

ALL planned work for this evening canceled. They are quite worried.

Work? Network Rail? Surely you jest!😁

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest Met Office. Not offering to much for kent Showers fragmenting. #Gutted

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Reefseeker, I can certainly be wrong though, I'm experienced (plus a little emotional at times as Nick said!) but not necessarily an expert!

Radar showing that dry slot quite nicely now that quite a few of the highest resolution models have, north of the highest precipitation. If your north of the heaviest stuff, that has your name on it. Not to say there will be no snow, but not nearly as much as to your direct south. However becoming increasingly clear on the 06z models that there is a high chance that a second band will come in around midnight-2am formed of heavy showers clumping together and this moves into the London area as well.

HIRLAM was outstanding last year...however it has just done a literal 180 flip form 1cms of snow for most, to a fairly widespread 5-10cms! So not sure how high confidence in it can be without another run!

Edited by kold weather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

At this stage I only ever follow 1 model

& its the HIRLAM

Same and its certainly seat of our pants time for those closer to London. I'm expecting the lower amounts here in North Kent. Think you'll do better based on latest charts. It's gonna be fun

Edited by CanadianCoops

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everytime I hear the term HIRLAM Update I'm like...

Harlem Globtrotters

 

hzN999zBXWs1.gif

Edited by Kent Blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Due South said:

Latest Met Office. Not offering to much for kent Showers fragmenting. #Gutted

Please don’t tell me you’re using one of those Met Office apps.

They’re a waste of space and have led to a lot of drama in here ! 😎

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Latest from my man at Network Rail.

ALL planned work for this evening canceled. They are quite worried.

But how will the system cope without 10 blokes staring at a bit of track for a few hours?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Due South said:

Latest Met Office. Not offering to much for kent Showers fragmenting. #Gutted

Not looking too bad according to the MetO for our location in West Kent - four hours of heavy snow, eight hours of non-heavy snow..... this isn't Minnesota so I would be more than happy with that!

 

Edited by kate1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apologies if anyone's mentioned this further back as havent read all messasges but 'London and the SE' is showing in the amber warning - but it isnt on the map?

image.thumb.png.2266d2e51c14a93fc4495bef81cc28e7.png

Edited by CanadianCoops

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Please don’t tell me you’re using one of those Met Office apps.

They’re a waste of space and have led to a lot of drama in here ! 😎

No there latest online video forecast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, throwoff said:

They do worry a lot, but they don't as a rule cancel planned work unless they are confident. 

The fact he messaged me to tell me says a lot, this is out of the ordinary.

I'd believe that but after all the 'wrong type of rain' 'wrong type of snow' etc crap we've become accustomed to I/most have little faith in them!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CanadianCoops said:

Apologies if anyone's mentioned this further back as havent read all messasges but the SE is showing in the amber warning - but it isnt on the map?

image.thumb.png.2266d2e51c14a93fc4495bef81cc28e7.png

I made that mistake 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Thanks Reefseeker, I can certainly be wrong though, I'm experienced (plus a little emotional at times as Nick said!) but not necessarily an expert!

Radar showing that dry slot quite nicely now that quite a few of the highest resolution models have, north of the highest precipitation. If your north of the heaviest stuff, that has your name on it. Not to say there will be no snow, but not nearly as much as to your direct south. However becoming increasingly clear on the 06z models that there is a high chance that a second band will come in around midnight-2am formed of heavy showers clumping together and this moves into the London area as well.

HIRLAM was outstanding last year...however it has just done a literal 180 flip form 1cms of snow for most, to a fairly widespread 5-10cms! So not sure how high confidence in it can be without another run!

[Bold text = my emphasis, not that of the OP, Kold Weather] 

Yes, that is interesting. The Office want to bring in a poky shower streamer into the London area in the dead of night that is separate from the main front. This can be clearly seen on their latest video forecast. 

That could bring more snow than the front itself for north London etc. 

You can see the video on their home page:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Bumping me forecast from yesterday 😉

335E388E-D646-4341-9930-84B3D49CD9CA.thumb.jpeg.02770630ab80c8d06852817ae26de053.jpeg

All shoring up nicely - but may have jumped the gun a little with EA (and Peterborough) 😄

What do the colours mean on that chart? No key! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The other GOOD thing is the early demise of the front looks a little overdone now from the 00z suite, most of the 06z suite keep the front at least moderately active enough so we don't lose all thr snow, though in such a set-up amounts will be varied and some will get lucky, others not so much.

06z ECM broadly looks like Euro4 at 06z (as you'd expect) with 2-3 inches to the south of the M4 (though there is once again a area with less, looks like Surrey somewhere but hard to tell at the resolution, but the drier zone, only about an inch-1.5), maybe an inch upto the northern extent of the M25, then very little north of that (maybe a dusting?)

Edited by kold weather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mark said:

I made that mistake 😉

Ah looks like Hampshire comes under London and the SE - nearly had a heart attack lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Love it when we play snow maps 😁   , as things stand this would be my take on tomorrows situation.

 

mhvknc.png

 

 

I'll bump mine from yesterday also then for our Region 😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...