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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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26 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

I can't find a model that shows anything as poor as the MO forecast is suggesting (not that I am very good at interpreting details). I just don't understand what could have changed in such a short time for them to make such a drastic change to the forecast. 🤔

Check the 2m temp over the sea, you May find your answer. 

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Think its because the upper air temps are not cold enough to counteract, the warming of the air due to the proximity of the sea, as the wind will be onshore I think or perhaps the meto are wrong, frustrating with the event so near 😐

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8 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

Check the 2m temp over the sea, you May find your answer. 

Will do...but I am 45 miles inland so I didn't think it would be such a factor. Hirlam shows my increased temps to 4C and dps not rising above 0C. 

I don't have the skill set to necessarily understand it all myself; my curiosity is more about the seemingly huge shift in such a short space of time at such short notice (i.e. would sea temps change rapidly enough to even catch the MO off guard?). I know local variations will always come in to play but it seems quite a wide spread. Hmmm.

Edited by Mizzle

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😵

cold.thumb.jpg.450b123b2f3380d4ba39c180d3334bf8.jpg

Doubt the ground will thaw out that much today.. 

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1 hour ago, Mizzle said:

Yep. Massive downgrade here too 😭😭😭. Went from 10hrs of snow to just 2 - all sleet and rain for the rest. I had no idea it could downgrade so massively in such a short timeframe. Lesson learnt I guess. 😔

Notes to self:

1. Clear your search if you check someone else's location on your MetO app!!! 🤣🤣🤣

2. Don't do weather stuff when tired.

3. Take solace in the fact that your knowledge is improving because you actually discovered the MetO forecast didn't fit with your own observations. Despite being tired.

3. 'Fess up your mistake to ensure the rest of the forum has something to laugh about when they wake up. 

...

*I'll get my PJs*

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Coldest commute yet this winter , hit -5 going past Bedford.

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33 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Upgrade for me on the meto - more heavy snow symbols for longer. 

Where abouts in Surrey are you? General area if you don’t want to disclose sensitive info 😉

Edited by FlightlessWings

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Morning All. I’m certainly not seeing the correction south that a lot of people were predicting yesterday, maybe the met office and the beeb got it right after all. This time tomorrow we’ll know for sure 👍

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Very frosty here right on the coast Isle of Sheppey north kent currently - 4.4 and at the moment BBC weather app still says light snow for tonight. 

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18 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Looks like a feverish night of radar watching, coming up.

I've just seen a recording of MeteoGroup's, "Weather For The Week Ahead" (with Ben Rich).

I'm not going to talk about today's snow potential, there's already been and will be further superb analysis, by members, above.

I just want to mention, the way in which Ben Rich, finished that Forecast. He stated that after significant snow for some of us in the next few days, the weather is set to turn milder next week, with the Atlantic becoming more dominant again.

Ben did state however, that High Pressure will be anchored over Scandinavia and there is, "just a small chance that cold Easterly winds, will start to make inroads, in our direction".

The sort of scenario that the 00z Icon run starts to paints at around, t162 and t180.

image.thumb.png.43badd0c860f0abebbb0240a834c58a5.png

Trough starts to disrupt and a "trigger" low breaks off and runs S.E, across the country and hopefully unleashing an Easterly.

image.thumb.png.8079df91b904ccbb12355efccae9008c.png

But I'm getting way ahead of myself now. Let's hope most of us get some decent snowfall, today. Enjoy, it's been a pretty long wait.

Later on today, I plan to put together another Wintry slideshow, similar to the Kent one I posted last night. But this time for our Surrey members, from Ian Currie's excellent, Surrey County Weather Book.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

1

Unfortunately an easterly is looking unlikely, they have all failed to materialize  this winter so far, no beast from the east

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So, I booked a trip to Canada and the States for early Feb so I would definitely see some snow/cold weather (and to see some family I guess). Last year I took off from Heathrow in Storm Emma. I posted through it on here as The plane was de-iced then the runway was closed and the plane was de-iced again. I fly out on Saturday and land in Calgary before travelling on to Banff where, come Sunday, I should expect a high of -23 and a wind chill of -30. I am actually quite worried about it and I think my adventure in the Rockies is going to end up being a few days spent in a hotel room 😂

Edited by FlightlessWings

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1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Unfortunately an easterly is looking unlikely, they have all failed to materialize  this winter so far, no beast from the east

Looks like we'll have to put up with the guess from the west until then, hopefully more than just a dusting tonight though, unlike the last 2 tuesdays!

I actually had a brief snow pellet shower yesterday shortly after 3pm, for all of about 30 seconds lol

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Euro 4 stillhas snow cover for everyone from the midnight run, so still the difference between the METO with rain on the coasts 

_5 C dew _6

Edited by SLEETY

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the meto is still showing light snow for me from 1am tomorrow morning... which better than nothing....

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45 minutes ago, Surrey said:

😵

cold.thumb.jpg.450b123b2f3380d4ba39c180d3334bf8.jpg

Doubt the ground will thaw out that much today.. 

Yep, currently at Purley station and it's -6c.

We only got up to 1.4c yesterday from a much higher starting number. 

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21 minutes ago, FlightlessWings said:

Where abouts in Surrey are you? General area if you don’t want to disclose sensitive info 😉

Purley - top end / bottom bit of greater London. 

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Met Office has upgraded my location again from light to heavy snow at 12 and 1am.

It's been downgraded twice already in the last 12hrs...

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1 minute ago, Essex Easterly. said:

Looks like we'll have to put up with the guess from the west until then, hopefully more than just a dusting tonight though, unlike the last 2 tuesdays!

I actually had a brief snow pellet shower yesterday shortly after 3pm, for all of about 30 seconds lol

Models are showing Atlantic dominated weather next week according to the posts in the focused model discussion, wind and rain and no beloved snow pellets lol. The met office recently changed their outlook too and downgraded February lol

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Hi Lassie,

Yes I tend to agree with you, for the time being. I think the Northern arm of the Jet Stream, looks a little too "hot", at the moment.

But I think after mid February we could see a more conducive set up, develop. With the Jet Stream starting to run out of "puff", heights could well start to build over the snowfields of Scandinavia. During the last few conservations I've had with Ian Currie, he stated it was a distinct possibility, although no guarantee.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Lassie,

Yes I tend to agree with you, for the time being. I think the Northern arm of the Jet Stream, looks a little too "hot", at the moment.

But I think after mid February we could see a more conducive set up, develop. With the Jet Stream starting to run out of "puff", heights could well start to build over the snowfields of Scandinavia. During the last few conservations I've had with Ian Currie, he stated it was a distinct possibility, although no guarantee.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

 

Shame as London is expecting a thick covering tonight, it would be nice to see it stick for more than 48 hours

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2 minutes ago, FlightlessWings said:

I know it relatively well! 

Just in the valley, only 80m asl but it helps. Hills around reach up to 160m, so they usually do well.

Expecting a few inches tonight hopefully.

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8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Purley - top end / bottom bit of greater London. 

Loved Purley was back there over xmas. Had a walk round russel hill, foxley lane up to furze lane all around the web estate. Grew up in Purley lived in Riddlesdown. I remember great winters especially 87. They sent the snow plough up the road. We spent next few hours digging passing points on the road... oh that winter

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