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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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1 minute ago, saint said:

Being just north of London is like a rollercoaster at the moment! 

Poor us, just getting the scraps!

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7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well 21z ICON has a more active front and the pulse stays around  longer as well however nothing north of the Thames on this run...and I do mean nothing.  Kent does ok, as does all southern counties of the region. Broadly 3-6cms. But a very sharp cutoff which is pretty much M4-London.

Damn, even here in N Kent is right on the Northern edge there. Fairly similar to the ECM which is a slight worry, though EURO4 has upgraded the potential so in essence, we haven't got a scooby do

Edited by Daniel Smith

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1 minute ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Poor us, just getting the scraps!

Not even the scraps on that run, the front literally fades away once at M4 latitude.

The showers coming in afterwards frankly look more promising for London than that front on the 21z.

Still, nothing to say it's going to be accurate, even this close models can be wrong.

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Yup, definitely getting into nowcast territory... There’s going to be a lot of radar watching tomorrow! 

Edited by saint

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49 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

If you put into Google "BBC Weather" and play the video from a few hours ago that might cheers you up mate

Yeah looks okay but BBC always seem behind.

I'm hoping we can get abudge north like Tuesdays front just enough so that heavy precip makes it across the thames.

At least I don't have to stay up late to see if I'll get anything out of it.

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9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Not even the scraps on that run, the front literally fades away once at M4 latitude.

The showers coming in afterwards frankly look more promising for London than that front on the 21z.

Still, nothing to say it's going to be accurate, even this close models can be wrong.

Well, let's hope another event comes along for those of us who have been starved of snow cover this winter.  We deserve it.

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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The huge variation in snowfall accumulations from the high-res models at this late stage is quite frankly laughable 

1903670517_Screenshot2019-01-31at00_33_41.thumb.png.c54b1828e1cd247d949d52c1a665579c.png

The only semi-consistent area is Wales, the rest of Southern England is basically a free for all. We just have to hope the models with the higher accumulations are calling it right, it'd be absolutely gutting to see the front fizzle away before our eyes tomorrow evening! 

Having EURO4 on side is encouraging though. Just as a side note;

WeatherQuest have a discount code "RADAR" on their weather radar, £25 for a year, usually £47.99. Might be worth splashing the cash for tomorrows drama..

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5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The huge variation in snowfall accumulations from the high-res models at this late stage is quite frankly laughable 

1903670517_Screenshot2019-01-31at00_33_41.thumb.png.c54b1828e1cd247d949d52c1a665579c.png

The only semi-consistent area is Wales, the rest of Southern England is basically a free for all. We just have to hope the models with the higher accumulations are calling it right, it'd be absolutely gutting to see the front fizzle away before our eyes tomorrow evening! 

Having EURO4 on side is encouraging though. Just as a side note;

WeatherQuest have a discount code "RADAR" on their weather radar, £25 for a year, usually £47.99. Might be worth splashing the cash for tomorrows drama..

Is it any good?

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Before I head to bed and pray for some last minute upgrades (yeah right!) The main player is entering stage left...

On radar, the eastern edge of the front can now be seen just to the West of Ireland.

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4 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Is it any good?

I'd say so - Lots of options, lets you "draw" weather fronts on things on top of the radar image too which can come in handy 

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Long day at work so haven’t been able to post , I’m also working late tomorrow so might be an interesting commute home tomorrow, looks like we are still in the game , what confuses me a little is that the met office texting says rain and snow for tomorrow, I didn’t think there was any marginal stuff going on tomorrow.

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'd say so - Lots of options, lets you "draw" weather fronts on things on top of the radar image too which can come in handy 

Do they have an app or is just online based?

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2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Do they have an app or is just online based?

Online based but the mobile site functions largely the same as an app would

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Online based but the mobile site functions largely the same as an app would

You should work for them as you've sold it to me just bought it.

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Cold air is certainly around us, current temp is -7.7°C with DP -8.3°C   :cold:

That is now the coldest temp recorded here for 2019, will be interesting to see just how low it reaches as it is still dropping. The predicted fog for here tonight has yet to appear although hope it stays away as the dark clear skies are pretty 🙂  

I don't expect to see much if any snow tomorrow though, we had just a dusting from last nights passing front and the NW > SE movement is certainly more favourable for here. Will be glued to the radar and crossing all fingers and toes for all you guys and gals in the South though, don't forget to post those pics for those of us up here looking for a floating snowflake on the wind 🤩

Edited by Chillyhills
Temp and DP dropped again lol

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1 hour ago, Chillyhills said:

Cold air is certainly around us, current temp is -7.7°C with DP -8.3°C   :cold:

That is now the coldest temp recorded here for 2019, will be interesting to see just how low it reaches as it is still dropping. The predicted fog for here tonight has yet to appear although hope it stays away as the dark clear skies are pretty 🙂  

I don't expect to see much if any snow tomorrow though, we had just a dusting from last nights passing front and the NW > SE movement is certainly more favourable for here. Will be glued to the radar and crossing all fingers and toes for all you guys and gals in the South though, don't forget to post those pics for those of us up here looking for a floating snowflake on the wind 🤩

-3 here at the moment. You're almost catching Chicago chilly😮

Edited by lassie23

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Bad news for us on or near the coast, mainly heavy rain later today, and not snow, according to the met office forecast, and POSSIBLE disruption inland, so still they not certain with only hours to go? 

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19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Bad news for us on or near the coast, mainly heavy rain later today, and not snow, according to the met office forecast, and POSSIBLE disruption inland, so still they not certain with only hours to go? 

Yep. Massive downgrade here too 😭😭😭. Went from 10hrs of snow to just 2 - all sleet and rain for the rest. I had no idea it could downgrade so massively in such a short timeframe. Lesson learnt I guess. 😔

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over night Hirlam - looks about right to me

7B050939-4552-44CC-8453-AB2AC97AAC58.thumb.png.952c15591519709280599ea00086e7d2.png

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

over night Hirlam - looks about right to me

7B050939-4552-44CC-8453-AB2AC97AAC58.thumb.png.952c15591519709280599ea00086e7d2.png

Looks like what I was expecting (and seemed to tie in with the original MetO forecast last night) - so why would they now downgrade their forecast so much? I mean, what would have changed? I don't yet understand how to read the models fully to interpret nuances.

Edited by Mizzle
Clarification and typo

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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

over night Hirlam - looks about right to 

Living on the Isle of Wight I'm gonna choose to laugh at that, be better for my sanity.

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TBH, when the new text forecasts came through via DataPoint a few hours ago I was surprised by the "heavy rain" on the south coast. Even their own model doesn't have any rain along the coast tomorrow evening/night. Can anyone find one that does?

I wouldn't take much notice at this stage anyway :)

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Euro 4 had lying snow on the south coast right across our region on its last run, so need to check the latest run, I'm not writing it off yet. 

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I can't find a model that shows anything as poor as the MO forecast is suggesting (not that I am very good at interpreting details). I just don't understand what could have changed in such a short time for them to make such a drastic change to the forecast. 🤔

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-5 here with hard frost. Are temps really going to raise that much that we get rain later on the coast.

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