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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

1-4cm Essex low chance of 5+

2-8 N/W of London 

Kent ( mainly west ) 2-8cm as well

Surrey / Berks lottery land - 2-10

W Sussex - up to 12cm but that could be tempered by temperature & low ratios...

Less towards E sussex..

And, for both Suffolk & Norfolk...'k all!?

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Best of luck to the SE gang tonight ?

Evening All, I hope other Members have no objection but just wanted to post up a Wintry Slideshow, for our Kentish Members. But I hope all Members will enjoy these very Wintry photos, from around

Best of luck yo you guys and girls in the South. Don't give up hope if it starts as rain. It rained here for about 2 hours now it's heavy snow. You should be good for a few cms also as it's very heavy

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Just now, snowray said:

Here are my thoughts for what its worth...Ties is with PPN totals on Euro4, but I think everything will be slightly further north of the Thames estuary. 

If Euro4 is close to the mark, thats about 20cm of snow around the north downs just south of London by Friday lunchtime.

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Defo a drive upto Biggin Hill Then ?

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4 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

according to the  met outlook all we are going to get tomorrow from 8pm onwards are sleet symbols on their chart for ramsgate for five hours, just think if that was snow

 It's your location mate I'm afraid, surrounded by sea within a few miles on 3 sides of thanet 

Further west in Canterbury them symbols are all snow 

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27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Saw a sat pic of last nights snow on Liam Duttons feed last night- the red is the snow cover-

In marginal events elevation is key so below it ive added the topography map of the SE-

the 2 images are uncanny in terms of likeness especially for Kent !

The scale on my height map is basically shades of orange are >100M then obviously red is higher...

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Steve you can tell us the truth ! ?

When you decided to move house was one of the important factors altitude for your new home ? Or is that a silly question ! 

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I hardly post in this forum.  I've been sitting in the wings just reading all the posts and waiting and watching.  I have to admit I'm at the point of model/snow fatigue now.  The background signs have been so promising and whilst this week has delivered for some/many, overall it's felt disappointing here in my location.  Being right on the coast means marginal events are just no good.  Add to that, being on the extremity of any approaching sliders from the west, means they just don't get to us or if they do, have very little left on them.

We need a potent northerly/easterly to really deliver here.  I've been waiting for the output to show such and despite the background signs emerging from time to time within the output, it just fails to materialise.   A little bit of interest was regained this morning but this evening, that has diminished. I'm not sure whether February will deliver enough here for anything notable.  Patterns seem persistent.  We had the persistent High at Christmas/New Year and now quite a persistent trough scenario.  At least it has turned cold and more like winter so I'm thankful of that but I seem to be looking at the action to the north, south, east and west both near and far whilst on my doorstep it's just feels like a bit of a damp squid.

Clearly the impacts of the SSW are now majorly affecting some areas of the planet (especially the US!) and we have benefited to some extent but nothing of note really.

Looks like there may be a pattern change emerging, but to anything substantive in terms of cold, I'm not at all convinced. 

 

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37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just landed at home

Most of the Garden snow still intact - lost about 1cm 

Anything in the shade lost next to nothing-

Temp -1.8c & dropping steadily !

Steve, just drove back from Humberside....we are colder down here. Loads of snow and -1.5c 1 hr ago in Bletchingley and Nutfield.  Redhill -0.5c.....we’re in prime spot here me thinks

 

BFTP 

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as sad as it is to see that the chance for snow the rest of the week up here is next to none, i'm happy to see that some of you may get your share after a long old wait.

from reading the last pages, whats this that i'm hearing about saturday risk? is this also south or is it another widespread? 

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1 minute ago, Stephen W said:

I hardly post in this forum.  I've been sitting in the wings just reading all the posts and waiting and watching.  I have to admit I'm at the point of model/snow fatigue now.  The background signs have been so promising and whilst this week has delivered for some/many, overall it's felt disappointing here in my location.  Being right on the coast means marginal events are just no good.  Add to that, being on the extremity of any approaching sliders from the west, means they just don't get to us or if they do, have very little left on them.

We need a potent northerly/easterly to really deliver here.  I've been waiting for the output to show such and despite the background signs emerging from time to time within the output, it just fails to materialise.   A little bit of interest was regained this morning but this evening, that has diminished. I'm not sure whether February will deliver enough here for anything notable.  Patterns seem persistent.  We had the persistent High at Christmas/New Year and now quite a persistent trough scenario.  At least it has turned cold and more like winter so I'm thankful of that but I seem to be looking at the action to the north, south, east and west both near and far whilst on my doorstep it's just feels like a bit of a damp squid.

Clearly the impacts of the SSW are now majorly affecting some areas of the planet (especially the US!) and we have benefited to some extent but nothing of note really.

Looks like there may be a pattern change emerging, but to anything substantive in terms of cold, I'm not at all convinced. 

 

I agree that snow chances on our coastline are dire at the best of times, and with such lovely model output the past month i definitely expected us to get a dumping at some point

obviously all hope isn't lost yet, and if we don't get a delivery til next winter i won't be as saddened as a normal winter after the freeze we endured last march that definitely satisfied me for the summer months

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Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Defo a drive upto Biggin Hill Then ?

Will have to get a new car battery first though, it was flat this morning, car looked like it had just driven through an Iceberg, all iced up until about 2pm. I should have changed the battery last winter really, kept losing its charge in the beast from the east weather so it must have been pretty cold last night to start doing that again.

I bet Steve M will do really well in his new new location on the Kent Alps.:oldlaugh:

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10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, for both Suffolk & Norfolk...'k all!?

I don't think that anyone is bothering to do a forecast map that includes Norfolk, sorry...?

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A 50 mile journey to work is never as wonderful as when I get to drive through the margins of a winter snowfall. Hopefully East Hampshire can get a decent layer on the ground tomorrow. Would sandy heathland be better than a soily woodland for settling snow?

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21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

1-4cm Essex low chance of 5+

2-8 N/W of London 

Kent ( mainly west ) 2-8cm as well

Surrey / Berks lottery land - 2-10

W Sussex - up to 12cm but that could be tempered by temperature & low ratios...

Less towards E sussex..

Steve, as an E Sussexer are you thinking just slightly less than 12cms or next to nothing?

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Quite a notable dry slot on the 18z ICON this run, basically running along the M4 , literally a dusting, whilst either side it has at least 2-3cms.

Seems a little overdone but that's the 3rd run the ICON has shown this happen.

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4 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Seems unusually cold here tonight. Heating has gone up to 20 which is a rarity in this house!

Looking like -4 overnight in Essex, which IS pretty cold for the Costa Del Anglia...

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Just now, kold weather said:

Quite a notable dry slot on the 18z ICON this run, basically running along the M4 , literally a dusting, whilst either side it has at least 2-3cms.

Seems a little overdone but that's the 3rd run the ICON has shown this happen.

What's causing it? Also does the front get a bit of a kick/some energy explaining why there is a couple of cm's north of the M4? 

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5 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Seems unusually cold here tonight. Heating has gone up to 20 which is a rarity in this house!

bloody hell ? you must live in a freezer, our heating is always at 20 all winter, don't know how people survive with it lower! 

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20 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

according to the  met outlook all we are going to get tomorrow from 8pm onwards are sleet symbols on their chart for ramsgate for five hours, just think if that was snow

I'm a 5 mile drive inland from Ramsgate and Met O are saying snow for me, heaviest around midnight. Shame it won't happen lol

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Still evidence of a dusting in NW London. Not expecting more than a cm or two tomorrow night. As noted by others, these events always trend much further south. Was not expecting by this much though!

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5 minutes ago, saint said:

What's causing it? Also does the front get a bit of a kick/some energy explaining why there is a couple of cm's north of the M4? 

I'm really not sure to be honest why, something slightly similar happened on Tuesday night as well, but as to why it happened, I'm not entirely sure! However its something that can't be ignored. HIRLAM kinda shows something similar on its 12z run as well...

PS - another area of sleet./snow coming up from the south early hours of Friday, decays once again just south of London, but maybe a 1-2cms for Hampshire, Surrey, Kent and maybe northern parts of Sussex.

Edited by kold weather
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