SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Bazza118]

Well quite surprised to see how much snow is still lying here in Coulsdon.  Even in the high street the grass and some walls still have a fairly complete covering. Definitely going you be a chilly night. Currently -2.2c    dp -3c 

[WhiteFox]

9 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Which model are they using? Certainty not ECM (6z). Eyes down for this evening’s ECM...

They must have access to a high resultion model. I suppose it depends how much cost-cutting went on when they negotiated the last contract; hard to picture the BBC forecasters scouring the free high resolution models the same as we do! Wouldn't be surprised though....

[Southender]

13 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

BBC latest graphics:

 

Loving the rain band right over me and @Paul Sherman house.

Edited January 30, 2019 by Southender

[SMU]

^^ See what hes saying

Snow for all except leigh on sea & Greenhithe...

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Loving the rain band right over me and @Paul Sherman house.

 Thats just Guy Fawkes's way of getting some Rain and Mild on a map, it must be killing him to talk of snow through gritted teeth poor lad

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, Bazza118 said:

Well quite surprised to see how much snow is still lying here in Coulsdon.  Even in the high street the grass and some walls still have a fairly complete covering. Definitely going you be a chilly night. Currently -2.2c    dp -3c 

Elevation makes all the difference.  Zero snow cover here.

-0.5C

[Downpour]

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

 Thats just Guy Fawkes's way of getting some Rain and Mild on a map, it must be killing him to talk of snow through gritted teeth poor lad

Guy Fawkes lol. The Snowpowder Plot?

[Nqp15hhu]

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Not expecting much in SE Essex just a dusting but go about 45 miles (As the Crow Flies) South and West to say Junction 6 of the M25 and it should be a whole lot better. One of those fronts that edges North and East from the SW and loses intensity the further North and East it goes, seen these set ups countless times and never ever have we done well from it in Essex.

Saturday might be our saving grace with the NW Moving Precip from La Frrance

Will this affect Essex or the whole of East Anglia.

[Downpour]

6 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

They must have access to a high resultion model. I suppose it depends how much cost-cutting went on when they negotiated the last contract; hard to picture the BBC forecasters scouring the free high resolution models the same as we do! Wouldn't be surprised though....

Lol. Perhaps they just consult the £2.99 MeteoGroup app and get out the crayons?

[Ben Lewis]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

How rare for an majority south of M4 event... 

Makes a bloody change !

Based on tonights run I think there will still be a 15/20 mile correction south- the trend never dies !!

Agree Steve. 

Expect those TV weather maps to sink that white further and further south tomorrow.

If I lived in Surrey and Berkshire, I’d be pretty happy right now - further west in this region looks the sweet spot & it’s south of the M4 

at last...... 

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Will this affect Essex or the whole of East Anglia.

Am sure you know the answer to that being a Met Student, Its not hard to work out, Or do you mean the Saturday Risk

Edited January 30, 2019 by Paul Sherman

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not expecting any more than a dusting here in Old Windsor with the front increasingly fragmented away from the South coasts.

[WhiteFox]

Just now, Ben Lewis said:

Agree Steve. 

Expect those TV weather maps to sink that white further and further south tomorrow.

If I lived in Surrey and Berkshire, I’d be pretty happy right now - further west in this region looks the sweet spot & it’s south of the M4 

at last...... 

I have a feeling it may be good for West Berkshire, but at the moment I'm not expecting too much here in Reading. The output seems to indicate around 1-3cm which is better than nothing I guess! 

Still time for that to change, but at the moment PPN looks less intense the further north and east you are with the possible exception of the wave of increased vorticity nearer to the south coast highlighted by @kold weatherearlier. Of course, even that is subject to variation!

[Nqp15hhu]

8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Am sure you know the answer to that being a Met Student, Its not hard to work out

That's fine. Don't answer the question then. 

Edited January 30, 2019 by Nqp15hhu

[Lampostwatcher]

25 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

BBC latest graphics:

 

thats an upgrade on early at 1pm 

5-10 mentioned west and south mids with the actual south 1-5 cm and london area including 20 miles north say luton 3-6 cms

[jimbo36]

So J9 of M25 even better then Paulo :-)

[Lampostwatcher]

ditching models now

bbc from now on

they seem to have a good handle of it

Edited January 30, 2019 by Lampostwatcher

[kold weather]

15z ICON is slightly worse again than the 12z ICON (which was in itself probably the worst of the 12z suite!) only 1-2cms except for the South Downs.

Still this model does seem to now be somewhat further south than the majority of the guidance is suggesting, and is indeed also one of the least snowy.

HOWEVER, we are now at the stage where we are going to be just nowcasting and radar watching, so no point getting hung up about the exact details of the models, they are far from infallible even at this range.

Edited January 30, 2019 by kold weather

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

That's fine. Don't answer the question.

No Probs - Ask some of the others

[Snow Queen one]

Just watched BBC SE forecast and it only went up to 8pm on Thursday eve.  Taped and watched ITV regional weather hardly any mention of areas effectex by snow on that one and only went out to 3pm.   Guess they are still not sure of where the front will end up.  I feel sorry for people who do not have the heads up that we all do in here

[PLANET THANET]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^ See what hes saying

Snow for all except leigh on sea & Greenhithe...

add Thanet to your list !!

[3cats]

1 minute ago, jimbo36 said:

So J9 of M25 even better then Paulo

That’s me! Really hoping for a ‘snow event’ but never build my hopes up! 

[yamkin]

27 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Which model are they using? Certainty not ECM (6z). Eyes down for this evening’s ECM...

Check this out. Quite an interesting read..........
Are MeteoGroup using ECMWF model at the BBC?
http://www.xmetman.com/wp/2018/03/08/are-meteogroup-using-the-ecmwf-model-at-the-bbc/

[Nqp15hhu]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

No Probs - Ask some of the others

Don't be rude.

[Ben Lewis]

Look east have the snow line up to south Lincolnshire tomorrow night

Where on earth on BBC getting their info from? 

Pretty misleading to the public I think. 

 

Edited January 30, 2019 by Ben Lewis