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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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0.7c and clear skies, I guess cold is all we're going to get out of this here!

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Ok so Euro4:

Good for southern counties but quite quickly weakening once north of there. Once north of the Thames its very patchy and weak as well.

Also looks like some sort of trough/convergence line sets up near the south coast bringing showers into the south. The model suggests these will probably be of snow slightly inland, so some places could add a couple of cms from say 6-9am before conditions probably go the wrong side of marginal for settling snow.

HIRLAM also has this area of snow, as does ICON. May need watching as it could well feed wintry showers in for most of the day if it were to come off. (ps, this only counts for southern most counties, probably within 20-30 miles of coast.

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31 minutes ago, fulham snow said:

A little but it is evaporating very fast so just a flurry 

That seemed to happen as it approached! 

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I don't think I can Snow Queen sadly.

Surrey looks good on this run. ICON though was an utter disaster for Surrey, not sure why but the front leaps over parts of Surrey, pretty odd but I've seen a couple of others do this as well now. However UKMO was fine, no issues, probably 2-3 inches generally, maybe a touch less of the northern end of the county.

Euro4 will probably be out soon/already out.

South of the m4 and west of London north of the m4 just about ok 

South Downs looks v good 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

South of the m4 and west of London north of the m4 just about ok 

South Downs looks v good 

Since I'm off work again this week ( 😞 ) I may try to go to the south downs, as they really are just a spit away from here. I'd imagine if those showers do come in as per Euro4 the Downs probably will keep settling snow most of the day, even if it does go too marginal down at lower level outside the first few hours of the morning.

Think its going to be a long day tomorrow down here. I do hope there is a correction north for you guysd in the north of the area. The Ukmo has gone a little bit in the right direction afterall.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

South of the m4 and west of London north of the m4 just about ok 

South Downs looks v good 

Do you think there will be much snow in the chilterns tomorrow night?

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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ok so Euro4:

Good for southern counties but quite quickly weakening once north of there. Once north of the Thames its very patchy and weak as well.

Also looks like some sort of trough/convergence line sets up near the south coast bringing showers into the south. The model suggests these will probably be of snow slightly inland, so some places could add a couple of cms from say 6-9am before conditions probably go the wrong side of marginal for settling snow.

HIRLAM also has this area of snow, as does ICON. May need watching as it could well feed wintry showers in for most of the day if it were to come off. (ps, this only counts for southern most counties, probably within 20-30 miles of coast.

Ukv has gone a bit further north again on its 3pm .... no doubt it will be back down again later !

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Wow, that puts me right on the edge I’m about 10miles north of the Thames. A little nudge north please. Hoping for a few cms still. @kold weather

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I think west of london and nw london could actually do better than south as there closer to the south mids 

where the bbc latest had 5-10 cms possible with south london kent 1-5cm

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Let's hope the Arpege has it, it's blinding for all of us...

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2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Let's hope the Arpege has it, it's blinding for all of us...

It is ?

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19 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

You’re so IMBY. Anyone would think this is the regional thread 😉

Lol.  I know.  But I have my reasons. 👋😁

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4 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

I think west of london and nw london could actually do better than south as there closer to the south mids 

where the bbc latest had 5-10 cms possible with south london kent 1-5cm

Heavier PPN to the south though mate, front looks to shear as it goes north. I think everyone will get decent covering in the London/SE region, east anglia really depends. Shame that it’s going to be a snow to rain event for many though, hopefully get out early enough in the morning to enjoy some laying snow! 

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@kold weather @Steve Murr @tom

Not sure why its not tagged Tom.. 

Just a thought.. The fax charts have the front pretty much smack central of London and it pivots there before going south... Anyone thought for a time pulling in moisture from the Thames to aid in PPN rates? 

Just a thought.. 

Midnight Friday 

Screenshot_20190130-174314.thumb.png.57b75e9080c1d8b386988717ec4ccc02.png

Midday Friday 

Screenshot_20190130-174327.thumb.png.4224ccc2316fb222fd0afce5089ac5bb.png

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8 minutes ago, AmershamMike said:

Do you think there will be much snow in the chilterns tomorrow night?

absolutely no idea mike !  the high res output which should do a good job looks to keep things north of greater London very hit and miss (much more miss) but the beeb and metoffice haven't reacted yet so as they have access to better short range output than us ………..

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukv has gone a bit further north again on its 3pm .... no doubt it will be back down again later !

Any pics mate!!euro4 breaks out precipitation over midlands that wasnt there on the 06z!!weird that!!gives around 5cms for midlands aswell!!

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

absolutely no idea mike !  the high res output which should do a good job looks to keep things north of greater London very hit and miss (much more miss) but the beeb and metoffice haven't reacted yet so as they have access to better short range output than us ………..

I’ll keep the faith for now then BA for us in St Albans! 

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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukv has gone a bit further north again on its 3pm .... no doubt it will be back down again later !

I personally think the models may have over-corrected. It wouldn't be the first time the models take a system too far in one direction, only for it to have to backtrack, not all the way, just a little. I think we may be at that point (not that I'd want corrections northwards personally, but I think it will happen to some degree. Maybe the UKMO is the first hint of that?)

Still looks like its going to be patchy though further north.

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Evening

Home to find it is very cold already - currently -1.5c with a DP of -2.5c

Lots of black ice on the side roads leading into home and still plenty of snow where the sun didn’t get to it.

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any pics mate!!euro4 breaks out precipitation over midlands that wasnt there on the 06z!!weird that!!gives around 5cms for midlands aswell!!

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201901301200&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

looks like the weakening occlusion decays over the west mids which builds up some cover over time. that doesn't fit the latest faxe which keep the occlusion further south

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13 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Let's hope the Arpege has it, it's blinding for all of us...

Have you got any visuals to show us?

It will snow bucket loads - I’m so torn (as a cold weather snowaholic) as I have the day off Friday because we are going to London for the day to gave a nice meal and a few cocktails. Already had an email from southeastern telling me they are putting on their winter timetable so I’m doomed 😂

 

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Should I not trust the GFS so much because I thought with the below 2 frames that most of this region would get a few cm’s including those North of the Thames?

49B15A44-D6AC-480D-B621-65AA29E3625B.png

EDDFB9C1-74D9-4CED-B453-52797A0A08DF.png

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

absolutely no idea mike !  the high res output which should do a good job looks to keep things north of greater London very hit and miss (much more miss) but the beeb and metoffice haven't reacted yet so as they have access to better short range output than us ………..

It's all varying so much across the outputs. The only thing we know for now is that it the forecast extent of the front has shifted south over the past few days. Most runs have the heaviest falls further west, with lower amounts as you head east.

As for the different models they have so much variety I don't think we'll really know until we get a look at the forecast vorticity and PPN rates tomorrow. Really a case of nowcasting! 

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5 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Evening

Home to find it is very cold already - currently -1.5c with a DP of -2.5c

Lots of black ice on the side roads leading into home and still plenty of snow where the sun didn’t get to it.

There sure was. I went to Cranleigh to pick up a new car (new to us), rear wheel drive. Had a few issues with grip and only just managed to avoid ploughing a field. Would have been a bit embarrassing

Edited by fluid dynamic

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