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Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

A fan of the 6z GFS now are you Steve? 😂 tentative signs of what the UKM extended outlook have been hinting at.

No lol *but* the earlier amplification at 120 sets up a series of dominos-

Assuming everything sharpens up 120 > 96 > 72!" then that scottish low will track due south over the UK ...

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2 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Take a look in the model thread - some excitement and interest over the 7 day easterly showing up...

That is where I am putting my eggs currently. While METO still saying some snowfall in this area overnight Thursday it really looks like much of nothing. The Easterly is the king for Kent.

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2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

06Z not looking good for Kent, though North of London could be in for some fun Thursday night. 

I never get too excited about this kind of pattern, it never seems to do well in Kent. Hopefully as we move into Feb we get some Easterly flow and a chance of a real snowfall.

I'm pretty relaxed this time around, had enough last night to get a fix ( snow that is )..after missing out last Tuesday.

I'm going to enjoy watching how this one develops, it'll be good for future references in this kind of set-up both negative and positive.

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11 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Don’t you think 4 years is long enough to get an insight of the typical winter snowfall situation?

Not the last bloody 4😂😉

I will admit the last few years haven't been marvelous, my daughter saw snow for the first time in a decent amount last year, she's 6.

By the age of 6 i'd learnt how to build an igloo

Edited by Chris101

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1 minute ago, throwoff said:

That is where I am putting my eggs currently. While METO still saying some snowfall in this area overnight Thursday it really looks like much of nothing. The Easterly is the king for Kent.

Agree easterly is the one for me too - though that can be frustrating too watching streamers set up just to pass us by. That said our location in north kent always tends to fair well from that set up.

I'm hopeful for 5cm's from this event Thursday for our locations

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Just now, CanadianCoops said:

Agree easterly is the one for me too - though that can be frustrating too watching streamers set up just to pass us by. That said our location in north kent always tends to fair well from that set up.

I'm hopeful for 5cm's from this event Thursday for our locations

If we hit 5cm Thursday I owe you a drink. I will be shocked to see anything over a dusting.

 

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2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

If we hit 5cm Thursday I owe you a drink. I will be shocked to see anything over a dusting.

 

Forget the drink, just race him down Blue Bell Hill in a sledge....make the most out of the 5cm 😂

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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Top up on sat according to ECM op - very sporting of it 

 

5C459347-7DC1-4461-AE6E-BB3C1BAED262.png

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8 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Awww  straight Northerly gets my goat, watching every shower cross the Suffolk border and fade, unless of course you can get a belter of a wind.

06z toying again, i do think they know somethings there, they just don't quite know what, i tend to think its more likely to see something suddenly jump out in a 120-168 period.

Yeah straight northerlies without some oomph are a waste of space unless you live in Norfolk! I actually meant a NEE wind for here is the jackpot direction. As you say seen many 20cm falls from that. 

Defo something brewing with regards to HLB into the next week. The Siberian high has been meandering with intent 

Edited by Nimbusman

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9 minutes ago, throwoff said:

06Z not looking good for Kent, though North of London could be in for some fun Thursday night. 

I never get too excited about this kind of pattern, it never seems to do well in Kent. Hopefully as we move into Feb we get some Easterly flow and a chance of a real snowfall.

Ignore the GFS on this one, its done such a BAD job thus far with this system. Literally the last one to finally clock that its not going north of the Midlands! When a model is behind the curve like this, it tends to require less in the way of notice.

Euro4 upto 48hrs showing the band stalling out, though it actually has sleet/rain for eastern parts of E.Anglia, but for the south, NW and west this still looks great on the uro4.

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27 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Yes with cold easterlies which are not that common.

This area doesn’t do well out of North Westerlies, clearly. 

If you want snow in the UK you are better off living north of Manchester, where a snow fall is semi frequent and guaranteed every winter. 

This is what frustrates me about folk that live up north, they regularly just get snow showers or a brief covering whereas even getting that down south can be very rare yet they moan they don’t get snow much! 

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Another shift South and even parts of North-Kent could miss out 

1.thumb.gif.377310a081325cc8595f30c105d4536c.gif2.thumb.gif.07500b3c40628400ff7744cb4000f98d.gif3.thumb.gif.07143ae493a10a05d8501b459f8279a2.gif4.thumb.gif.e836201cd7a2b4758bdec06cd4c8c8b7.gif

This *was* a North midlands event a few days ago.. 

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8 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

This is what frustrates me about folk that live up north, they regularly just get snow showers or a brief covering whereas even getting that down south can be very rare yet they moan they don’t get snow much! 

I am from a Northern area of the UK. We do get snowfall every year but it is only for a few days per winter on average.

I have noticed the lack of snow here and the fuss the locals make when it does snow.

 

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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Reason to be slightly more optimistic in the 06z for Thursday, still sticking with its guns in taking the front up towards Lincolnshire before it pivots away. That would certainly deliver a good covering for most in EA/South East. 

I like the GFS take on an easterly next week - there are good signals for this, and its a good time of year for an easterly to set up. That said, won't necessarily mean snow for the likes of us in Cambs, the streamers don't tend to favour our spots! But I wouldn't complain 🙂 

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4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Another shift South and even parts of North-Kent could miss out 

1.thumb.gif.377310a081325cc8595f30c105d4536c.gif2.thumb.gif.07500b3c40628400ff7744cb4000f98d.gif3.thumb.gif.07143ae493a10a05d8501b459f8279a2.gif4.thumb.gif.e836201cd7a2b4758bdec06cd4c8c8b7.gif

This *was* a North midlands event a few days ago.. 

The Euro has not been that great

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Cautiously optimistic here in Haywards Heath - on the border of W/E Sussex, about ten miles inland. Not exactly prime location for snow usually but tomorrow night’s setup looks like it might work for us. Is it looking inevitable that it will turn to rain here later on though? 

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7 minutes ago, yamkin said:

MetO Have Updated The Snow & Ice Yellow Weather Warning

803004869_Snow_IceAlertFor31stJanTo1stFeb2019.thumb.PNG.8daa2cb569ee151a629800fec4f4bd96.PNG

https://tinyurl.com/y7nran6y

While this could in some situations be seen as 'the country is getting a lot of snow' I think this is more a case of 'we don't know what is going on'

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all very nice expecting an easterly, but i spent the beast from the east working on this... with a lot of coats on !

20180312_101527.jpg

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41 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

That doesn’t happen often. It is a slush fest most winters.

 

When Mother Nature picks on me whilst chasing Tornadoes in the Spring I go outside cry a bit throw a tantrum esp when the Tornado happens on a storm 50 miles South of me 

What I am getting at is with Ma Nature it's not personal every event is different and it's pot luck where the Lps go and where the Precip falls 

You are sounding hard done by and you really are not as Dan says parts of Norfolk had just under a foot from an Easterly 11 months ago 

 

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14 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Another shift South and even parts of North-Kent could miss out 

1.thumb.gif.377310a081325cc8595f30c105d4536c.gif2.thumb.gif.07500b3c40628400ff7744cb4000f98d.gif3.thumb.gif.07143ae493a10a05d8501b459f8279a2.gif4.thumb.gif.e836201cd7a2b4758bdec06cd4c8c8b7.gif

This *was* a North midlands event a few days ago.. 

Euro4 looks like its just about the southern most of the models along with the ICON. I think personally that's a touch too far south now and a track closer to the ARPEGE is more likely. But we will see, won't be long before we can radar watch!

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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Euro4 looks like its just about the southern most of the models along with the ICON. I think personally that's a touch too far south now and a track closer to the ARPEGE is more likely. But we will see, won't be long before we can radar watch!

Indeed - For my own snow risk map I've gone further North than the EURO4 too using a blend of ECM/ARPEGE/HIRLAM

Snow Risk.png

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