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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Just now, smith25 said:

nooo please go north!

Looks like another massive let down!!

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 9pm tomorrow

CA402164-96B2-4DB9-A232-787C6F04233A.thumb.png.2388a79b58baf1a3d250a90a68a07af1.png

Blimey, any more vast corrections South and it'll end up in France!! The Meto fax chart has the front bushing the South Coast and not getting much further North... not looking good today. A tad premature but I am getting the sense many of us in EA/North of London may have to write off Thursday if these charts materialise. 

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 9pm tomorrow

CA402164-96B2-4DB9-A232-787C6F04233A.thumb.png.2388a79b58baf1a3d250a90a68a07af1.png

Just checked a few hours later it literally inches a little past London on eastern side. 

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Think we learned our lesson after yesterday. 

I’ll not be getting reeled in by this.

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HIRLAM

hirlamuk-1-48-0.png?30-05

AROME

aromehd-1-42-0.png?30-05

APERGE

arpegeuk-1-44-0.png?30-05

Edited by Snowman.

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8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think Kent and E/W Sussex may end up being the sweet spot for the largest totals tomorrow night into Friday morning, looking at the various model output so far this morning.

Hi Nick, how do you think the north London suburbs will do in terms of location. We are north of the M4, but not by much! 😄

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IMO, tomorrow looks like being horrible, up here: fresh ESE wind and no snow; and it'll feel very raw (1-2C?) under the cloud shield! Yuck!

Maybe I'll go to the library?🤓

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As I said I don't think the front is any further south on the ICON 06z, the backend is about the same place.

What has happened on the 06z is there was a band that formed in front of the main band that gave snow. This band is not there so you are relying on purely the main front to get up, which it does but much weaker, thus main heavy snowfall is located probably within 40 miles of the south coast.

Getting close to total agreement though now, and as snowmans charts show there isn't really much difference between those three high resolution models, which does give confidence that we are now about right to where its going to be.

Probably 2 more suites after this of possible south adjustments before its radar time...

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Any events after this one? Or should we focus on spring weather? 

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This is the snow at my parents house. Look at what I’m missing out on.

 

 

825BA4DE-A17C-4270-B783-49DFC0C3E728.jpeg

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Just now, Nqp15hhu said:

This is the snow at my parents house. Look at what I’m missing out on.

 

 

825BA4DE-A17C-4270-B783-49DFC0C3E728.jpeg

Where's this?

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Lovely little dusting sparkling in the sunshine! Car is rock solid though!

Have a good day everyone. x

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21 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Don’t think there will be too much wriggle room now, may be a tad further south if any change, think it will arrive heavy along southern counties then perhaps tend to fragment and weaken a bit as it heads north of London before sliding SE Friday morning. Saturday’s snow only showing on EC and UKMO atm, not GFS op / para or ICON, so uncertainty whether this will happen

Agreed Nick, I think this is more or less as it is now, the only question is whether the highest area of precipitation comes ashore, that could make a big difference locally with amounts. The northern extent may change purely based on how much strength the front has and how well it holds itself together on the models but the back edge has been pretty consistent in the last few runs in terms of placement and timings (though the AROME is still a little faster which makes things a touch more marginal right at the start).

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12 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

HIRLAM

hirlamuk-1-48-0.png?30-05

AROME

aromehd-1-42-0.png?30-05

APERGE

arpegeuk-1-44-0.png?30-05

Well at least these give hope of it not being a purely a south of the M4 event. 

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7 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Any events after this one? Or should we focus on spring weather? 

It’s not to be written off yet, last year we got a week of disruptive snow in the first week of March!

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18 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Think we learned our lesson after yesterday. 

I’ll not be getting reeled in by this.

I reckon your snow had dodgy watch batteries after all 😉🤣

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watch this low for Monday

expecting to be modelled way further south

AA4B8A46-9A7E-4623-85E0-CA2D23CFBB14.thumb.png.30026d21c4ae93052ddfdf907329e4bc.png

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6 minutes ago, throwoff said:

It’s not to be written off yet, last year we got a week of disruptive snow in the first week of March!

I’m not holding out on that in this place!! Can’t even manage a cm.

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1 minute ago, Nqp15hhu said:

I’m not holding out on that in this place!! Can’t even manage a cm.

In that case you need to order some viagra snow 😜

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1 minute ago, Nqp15hhu said:

I’m not holding out on that in this place!! Can’t even manage a cm.

I take it the 20-25cm last March is a distant memory? 😉

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Bbc news 958am

Upgrade for north showed band going all the way up to east anglia then he said pivoting and clearing friday

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5 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

I take it the 20-25cm last March is a distant memory? 😉

No, it’s not. But that event was an extreme event not typical of this area.

Last night was more typical of this area. Just a slushy covering.

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

watch this low for Monday

expecting to be modelled way further south

AA4B8A46-9A7E-4623-85E0-CA2D23CFBB14.thumb.png.30026d21c4ae93052ddfdf907329e4bc.png

Moving away from the slight disappointment of the short term here locally I’ve been looking mid term again and on the face it’s not looking ovelry cold (defo not mild though), so would be good to hear your thoughts on next week Steve? More HLB to appear as a response to the SSW downwell as we move through into week 2 and the weakening jet pushed further south? Siberian high seems to be excerting it’s presence more and more  perhaps edging slightly further westwards into Scandi? 

Edited by Nimbusman

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ARPEGE looks good for this whole area with most of this area getting snow, though very marginal for Norfolk, verbatim it shows rain/sleet up there (though it did well yesterday, I still wouldn't get too worked up about it)

There is a particular heavy pulse working its way eastwards from Hampshire through to Kent. Probably effecting people within 20-30 miles of the south coast. This is also reflected in most of the other models, though some slight disagreement how far north it gets.

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