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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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1 minute ago, weathergeek said:

Where are you Surrey?!

Chilterns lol! 

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59 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

3-4cm here - slight melt initially as it stayed as 0.2c till 2am.

Currently -1.7c

*** Expecting -4/-5c tonight prepping the ground etc for tomorrow ***

Snow event tomorrow evening, - higher chance of a stall out over London now !

Southern coastal areas ~9pm 

London for midnight...

How far north will the band actually get ?

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kirkwood has gone for it on BBC breakfast, all snow and 2 to 5cm across the region, although i suspect 5cm will be more for high ground on Thursday, after that, possibly 10c next week☹️

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We got nothing, just an hour’s flurry from about 7:30 for an hour last night.

Tomo looking better - but again doubting any significant snowfall or accumulations.

Doubting you’ll be able to call anything this week an ‘event’. I’d compare it to in summer when we get told there will be a thunderstorm and all you hear in the end is a distant rumble. Disappointing and not very practical weather.

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So we had a pleasant enough evening in Ely last night, with snow between 8-9:30pm which delivered around 2cm. Surprisingly - although much was initially covered, there was a slight thaw and many of the paths that were covered ended up becoming clear again. By this morning it had all completely froze over however - my car was like an ice block!

I'm following the charts keenly regarding Thursday. It has some potential yes - and this time I believe we'll see an 'all snow' event so that will bode well. The precipitation band is slipping further and further South so we need to be a bit cautious about this one. I do detect however an overall weakening of the system with each run - so I'm not currently anticipating significant snowfall if it does reach Ely, perhaps 2-5cm max - which is exactly as all the forecasters are going by.

Some on here will need to reset their expectations - its not going to be a major 'dump' as it stands - it could even all boil down to a light sprinkling! 

 

Edited by Matty88

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About 1 cm, in the end...I was tricked by the homepage; it's still saying 3C and rain!:cray:

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No snow but very icy underfoot & took the car a while to defrost. An upgrade for me tomorrow luckily so might get first lying snow of the season...might..

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20 minutes ago, kold weather said:

UKMO has tomorrows system in a similar position as the ECM though the area of heavier precip stretchs further north a little, to the north of M4 before quite a quick weakening.

Surrey- where about are you mate?

Looks game over for anyone north of M4 then Kold? Sorry haven’t had a chance to check the charts thoroughly this morning yet but I’m sensing this will be nothing more than a dusting for the north and east of region? 

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Hirlam and ICON have the front moving up and slowing over North London up to North Essex and then losing intensity as it moves further North. I'd say the line for good snow prospects can be drawn across from North Essex into Suffolk. South of there will do well, most south of London and M4.

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Wow, some downbeat posts above, second and third time lucky tomorrow night and again early Saturday? EC seems to think so, tomorrow night looks to see a spell of heavy snow, starting and finishing as snow, then low pressure moving across NW France May extend NE bringing another spell to parts of our area early Saturday

Tomorrow night

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Saturday morning 

0864ED4B-46E0-45C9-AF7E-EC28ED1EE07A.thumb.png.652db348bdd09282e893ce6eb820f198.png

Just looking in the mod thread and looking at the general trend- do you feel theres a chance it could slip a bit further South Nick and lose some of its intensity? And what's your thoughts about the extent of the snow potential on Saturday - again is it looking like mostly it'll be the South East of the region? 

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Quite a bit of ice and snow around at home in Merstham. First picture is of the fields out towards Nutfield and the second is up towards M25/Nutwwod/ Reigate Hill

 

341EEAF9-2F24-4945-8083-122C77BB042E.jpeg

6D05C519-9A54-4745-B256-71BD50429422.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Nimbusman said:

Looks game over for anyone north of M4 then Kold? Sorry haven’t had a chance to check the charts thoroughly this morning yet but I’m sensing this will be nothing more than a dusting for the north and east of region? 

Nah your still totally in the game north of the M4. Heaviest stuff looking probably south of there but there should be some snow around, even if the front is on the wane by that point.

However nothing to say the front can't penertrate more than expected. You guys north of M4 certainly within the range if error still.

Now we have model agreement about all three main factors regarding this low, any adjustments north or south should be minimal at this stage and probably only important to those on the northern and southern extents. This will be roughly where the front will be.

Edited by kold weather

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4 minutes ago, exodus said:

Hirlam and ICON have the front moving up and slowing over North London up to North Essex and then losing intensity as it moves further North. I'd say the line for good snow prospects can be drawn across from North Essex into Suffolk. South of there will do well, most south of London and M4.

So is west London looking good for some heavier snowfall tomorrow evening?

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A light covering on cars etc this morning round Medway. 

The ice is a bit of a pain, could see a few slips and falls happening around the area. 

Looks like we are firmly out of the running till Friday/Sat now, good luck everyone still in with a shout for tonight!

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1 minute ago, Londres said:

So is west London looking good for some heavier snowfall tomorrow evening?

Others may have a view but I would say London is looking in prime position for the Thursday potential as the whole system is forecast to bit a bit further South (as shown by the chart trends) which means the colder air needed will still be in place across London. How north of London the front will push and its intensity is currently the main discussion point - but 2-5cm looks likely. 

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Nah your still totally in the game north of the M4. Heaviest stuff looking probably south of there but there should be some snow around, even if the front is on the wane by that point.

However nothing to say the front can't penertrate more than expected. You guys north of M4 certainly within the range if error still.

Cheers for the reply. Fingers crossed with the angle of attack being slightly more favourable too. Just saw the charts Nick posted for Thursday and Saturday morning and North Essex and Suffolk are right on the edge of ‘interesting’

I’ve accepted over the many years that an east coast locale in these set up can be difficult to get decent snowfall from. Having said that im still hoping for some positive adjustments in the the next 24 hours!

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Lile @Steve Murr, some melt since last night.  I was woken early by people starting to drive to work and the cracking sound of the ice on the road was so loud! Temps currently at 0C - a beautiful, clear, cold morning. 

snow2.JPG

snow.JPG

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I think a very different anxiety will unfold for tomorrows snow compared to last night.

It's looking like an all snow event, which will be nice not having to endure hours or will it/wont it change from rain to snow.

BUT the big thing will be the heaviness of the snow and the extent it reaches. Which is another issue all together. As others have said north and east of London looking less likely to have higher amounts than south and west of London but still in the game. Still 36 hours or so  and time for changes. 

The radar will certainly come in handy tomorrow for nowcasting.

 

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Official depth here 4cm 😁❄️

Expecting to hopefully double it tomorrow

8DD81F23-6940-4625-BA25-FB7DC5C03A51.thumb.jpeg.062f0280a8fa149a800b752dfcadf295.jpeg9BDB3735-E9ED-48BA-81D9-5D7ECA92B16B.thumb.jpeg.67863c029206a805aa80607036f38fb1.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Official depth here 4cm 😁❄️

Expecting to hopefully double it tomorrow

8DD81F23-6940-4625-BA25-FB7DC5C03A51.thumb.jpeg.062f0280a8fa149a800b752dfcadf295.jpeg9BDB3735-E9ED-48BA-81D9-5D7ECA92B16B.thumb.jpeg.67863c029206a805aa80607036f38fb1.jpeg

Wow you got quite a bit down there. Think we were just on the wrong side of marginal in north London, plus probably didn’t get the same intensity of precipitation. We had snow but it only gave a dusting. 

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7 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

I think a very different anxiety will unfold for tomorrows snow compared to last night.

It's looking like an all snow event, which will be nice not having to endure hours or will it/wont it change from rain to snow.

BUT the big thing will be the heaviness of the snow and the extent it reaches. Which is another issue all together. As others have said north and east of London looking less likely to have higher amounts than south and west of London but still in the game. Still 36 hours or so  and time for changes. 

The radar will certainly come in handy tomorrow for nowcasting.

 

Very good point, it’s never easy in the country is it?! The marginality was the major issue last night with the front arriving quicker than expected, the temps and dew points took much longer to drop to more snow conducive levels over here in the east.

As an aside it looks like there could be some very low minima tonight in the region and freezing fog so a real wintry flavour continues!

Edited by Nimbusman

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Haha, didn’t I say it would change by the hour, I got my double snowflakes back on Meto! Yippee 🎉

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