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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ukmo ticked south on its 00z run and 00z keeps the heaviest precip in southern counties. 

However generally the models are around the same spot they were in last night, all be it with a few difference s.

Still considerable differences between front strength on the models as well. There is a pause of heavy snow forecast to run west-east but it's uncertain who would get it. General totals from ECM aren't that impressive away from the far south. Broadly 1-2 inches. However some models are more agressive.

In North Surrey here, so feeling quite optimistic for tomorrow.

Is this looking like an all snow event for this area now? The rain really hampered settling last night. 

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

In North Surrey here, so feeling quite optimistic for tomorrow.

Is this looking like an all snow event for this area now? The rain really hampered settling last night. 

Providing no major changes, yes should be all snow.

Also models have moved this back 3hrs. That will be most beneficial for coastal areas.

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But the uppers are about the same as Tuesday evenings at around -6, maybe the easterly flow might make it more conducive to snow than the SE’ we saw yesterday.

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Providing no major changes, yes should be all snow.

Also models have moved this back 3hrs. That will be most beneficial for coastal areas.

Music to my ears!

Regarding the pivot point, is this front stalling and then moving back south or fizzling out in situ?

 

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4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

But the uppers are about the same as Tuesday evenings at around -6, maybe the easterly flow might make it more conducive to snow than the SE’ we saw yesterday.

Dewpoints will save most of us 🤗 Ranging from -2c to -4c throughout, -6 Uppers will get it done 

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Morning

Light covering overnight leaving the world white - will take some pics before work if I get chance.

Currently -0.6c DP -1.1c

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Morning peeps.. I took a couple of pictures before bed last night. Not much left this morning but there's quite a bit of black ice. 

IMG_20190129_221607.thumb.jpg.ee9e90e04925a72afd54419ce8bc5bd2.jpgIMG_20190129_221600.thumb.jpg.766bfbee0bc40030c9e5ef4fc9a1b173.jpg

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Naff all here. I suspect we're too close to the sea for Thursday's too.

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Fascinated by the models southward correction. It seemed less likely a few days ago but has continued. With still 36 hours to go, its lowered the confidence for northern part of region including my location.  

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Morning All

3-4cm here - slight melt initially as it stayed as 0.2c till 2am.

Currently -1.7c

*** Expecting -4/-5c tonight prepping the ground etc for tomorrow ***

Snow event tomorrow evening, - higher chance of a stall out over London now !

Southern coastal areas ~9pm 

London for midnight...

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43 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ukmo ticked south on its 00z run and 00z keeps the heaviest precip in southern counties. 

However generally the models are around the same spot they were in last night, all be it with a few difference s.

Still considerable differences between front strength on the models as well. There is a pause of heavy snow forecast to run west-east but it's uncertain who would get it. General totals from ECM aren't that impressive away from the far south. Broadly 1-2 inches. However some models are more agressive.

Very interesting how the models have corrected. It seemed a lower % picked southerly option and yet here we are with that seeming more likely. Shows how on global scale its impressive but 50 miles shift, then on ground this has significant impact to who gets what. 

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Currently -2.3c and dp of -3.3c . About 2cm on grass and light covering on the pavements but very icy, so MO warning was spot on there. A very crunchy sound when walking to the station. 

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

3-4cm here - slight melt initially as it stayed as 0.2c till 2am.

Currently -1.7c

*** Expecting -4/-5c tonight prepping the ground etc for tomorrow ***

Snow event tomorrow evening, - higher chance of a stall out over London now !

Southern coastal areas ~9pm 

London for midnight...

Is essex going to be included in this?

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-2.8C here. A covering on most surfaces.

Heathfield, E Sussex

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51 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ukmo ticked south on its 00z run and 00z keeps the heaviest precip in southern counties. 

However generally the models are around the same spot they were in last night, all be it with a few difference s.

Still considerable differences between front strength on the models as well. There is a pause of heavy snow forecast to run west-east but it's uncertain who would get it. General totals from ECM aren't that impressive away from the far south. Broadly 1-2 inches. However some models are more agressive.

That will do just fine. A light covering will be taken with both hands in the Southend locale as we got zilch last night.

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Pic doesn’t do it justice, but we managed to get a 1cm covering on most surfaces. It has ever so slightly melted overnight.

B4E42DED-4280-49A7-85FC-382CDF226DC5.jpeg

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Absolute death trap outside I couldn't even open the car doors! 

Tomorrow night looks much better widely 2-5cm with a few getting more in lucky places like kold has said its looking pretty decent 

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I really can’t afford it to correct south anymore for tomorrow event. 

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Ended up with a covering maybe 0.5cm on grass and cars a bit patchy on other surfaces. Temp currently -0.5c dew point -1. Not masses of snow but it was good to see it falling last night and it looks quite pretty this morning.

suspect I maybe a bit too far north and east to get much from Thursday's event, but looks like it might be good for those in the south of the region. Hoping for a small correction north. 

Enjoy Thursdays snow whoever gets some.❄️⛄☃️

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14 minutes ago, smith25 said:

Is essex going to be included in this?

There is a sharp cut off into essex - mainly due to intensity not the fact the front doesnt reach you quick enough-

ECM 42-48 00z optimal areas are sort of Kent / sussex / Surrey / Hamp / Wilts - around 5-6cm

48-54 as the system fragments & stalls ( tail over London / N kent & the front is up towards North Essex ) then there may well be less on it - so less depth 

System arriving PM tomorrow is around 30 hours away now so less & less corrections however Essex is certainly on the cusp-

ECM 48 below V 96 2 days ago just shows how far the model has corrected in 2 days with the -5c line

EE2D531E-785F-4886-B51A-E2DAA82DF67F.thumb.png.52b4d52ed544e048b546441daa5174a8.pngC0310BA4-C08C-45F1-962D-32DAEFEDFA7F.thumb.png.1751292650ccee4ebeb4a7e3b5d44ed7.png

Edited by Steve Murr

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Got to say I’m not feeling this tomorrow. The trends going the wrong way for me 

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Ended up with 2.5 cm's on favoured surfaces like cars and bin lids - so a good old traditional inch. 2cm on grass and less than 1cm/dusting on pavements/roads etc. Not bad and inline with the forecasts.

Looking to tomorrows event looks like west is best with regards to the SE but it can all change. Another 3-5cm maybe more. Not a bad week 🙂

Edited by CanadianCoops

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As your probably all aware I’m right on the coast 🤣  I’ve heard that it’s dropped south tomorrow is that better for me???

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