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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Snowing steadily here, settling ok on grass in the hour, just starting to see paving turning................Oh darn it, lampost  went out.

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8 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

The models have not been very accurate for this area, recently. The EURO4 predicted snowfall on Sunday night, we received heavy rain all night, with a temp of 2c. The EURO 4 also predicted snowfall for this area this evening and overnight. 

None of the models from what I can remember predicted snowfall in Central Eastern England and rainfall in Eastern East Anglia tonight.

Sorry don’t quite understand where I said the models were accurate for tonight

my post clearly states it was a nowcast situation from my point of view

 

Edited by snowbob

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7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Wasnt meant to be patronising but if you are studying Meteorology am guessing at UEA then surely you could see the Low Pressure was losing intensity (Dan calls it Upper Forcing) then you could see that the Northern Extent of the Precip was struggling and with no heavy precip at 36f dewpoints it simply wasnt going to fall as snow, as the precip shield has waxed and waned away moving out towards the east when the favourable conditions (EG Dp's around freezing were there) the precip wasnt strong enough for the Norfolk area.

I always like to go through the event after it has happened to try and see why things happened and why things never happened and wrote a paper on the infamous 2009 Snow Event that many Met Students have asked to do studies on (That event was triggered by an Inversion around the Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex Coasts) that stopped the Snow from reaching the ground other than polystyrene balls with cloud tops at 37,000ft and Uppers of -14. The same Convective storms moved from the ENE to WSW and gave over a foot of snow to London.

Its all a learning process, was not meant to be patronising in any way

Well, I have monitored snow events in this area for the past few years and there seems to be quite often a barrier to snowfall here that does not happen elsewhere. Often it seems to snow in Ely, Peterborough and Cambridge, whilst we receive rainfall. 

I recall an event last year where Hertfordshire received 1 foot of snow and up here, we had flooding. I have also seen events that looked to produce heavy snowfall through showers produce heavy rainfall (Sunday was an example).

There just seems to be something stopping snowfall in this area, and i'm not sure what it is. I understand that the wind direction has an affect, but events seem to fizzle out also.

You would think that this area would be best located for snowfall in East Anglia, but it is not.

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

us_model-en-330-0_modgbrhd_2019012918_50_4855_155.thumb.png.ecc7439ad0d3b027a27cc5cee8255e01.png - 8pm

us_model-en-330-0_modgbrhd_2019012918_54_4855_155.thumb.png.6d3a69dd5e08d099c0672416bacd7f0b.png - 12am

That the Northen extent? 

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Had a couple of hours a snow, now raining in Braintree, Essex, hoping it isn't too icy in the morning commute.

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Well the 18z ECM is out and thankfully no southward adjustment. A slight delay but its very consistent with the 12z ECM.

Still gives a peak around 2 inches in 3hrs for southern coasts as per the 12z ECM, and band weakens at a similar place (over E.A and places west).

As far as I can tell, yes Hammer.

Edited by kold weather
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the 18z ECM is out and thankfully no southward adjustment. A slight delay but its very consistent with the 12z ECM.

Still gives a peak around 2 inches in 3hrs for southern coasts as per the 12z ECM, and band weakens at a similar place (over E.A and places west).

As far as I can tell, yes Hammer.

So possibly better than tonight as it stands mate

still a good 24 hrs for corrections unfortunately 

Edited by snowbob

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9 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

The models have not been very accurate for this area, recently. The EURO4 predicted snowfall on Sunday night, we received heavy rain all night, with a temp of 2c. The EURO 4 also predicted snowfall for this area this evening and overnight. 

None of the models from what I can remember predicted snowfall in Central Eastern England and rainfall in Eastern East Anglia tonight.

The Sunday night / Monday North Sea wintry showers the EURO4 always overplays - similarly 2 weeks ago it suggested 10cm of lying snow in Norfolk, when most other models only had 1cm. Eventually it backed off the idea - this is a known issue in the EURO4 with it's convective rain rates being excessively high, and hence convective accumulation too high.

This plot from 21z may go some ways to help explain the marginality of tonight's rain/snow. Red shading highlights areas where the dewpoint is warmer in reality than EURO4 expectations, while blue depicts colder.

 

deviation_T_21Z.png

Edited by staplehurst
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Not done too bad, and its still snowing quite a bit, cheered me up a bit, shame we can't get a main course, a week or two of this would be heaven.

IMG_20190129_235645.jpg

IMG_20190129_235536.jpg

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Very light snow for the last half hour or so in Norwich. Just settling on the car roof and the grass but roads/pavements seem too wet for it to settle. 

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Starting to ease off here - Hawkhurst, Kent. Everything white barring main roads. Got a cm or two on some surfaces, it's better than nothing!
Looking forward to Thursday.

 

Edited by <<Ryan>>

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Still coming down in Sittingbourne 

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Well down here on the coast we had rain, then more rain. As the colder air undercut the front it turned to sleet, then wet snow but nothing settled.

Now we have very light sleet again, all in all probably the best we could of got given the set up. At least now I've seen a bit of snow falling this winter.

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Oooh dummies and prams. Who is the ombudsman for nature.

Disappointing but not much van be done.

 

Meanwhile heavy snow here hopefully something for the chicken poxed twins to enjoy in the morning

 

 

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Raining... What the?

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Snowing here, don't know for how long, was busy playing pool till one lol. Not landing on pavements or roads, but gritter has just gritted.

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You know it's sh--1t when SE discussion is almost at the bottom of all regions on the region page that leads to here!

 

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Can anyone confirm if we got any snow through the night near me no laying snow on the ground I tried so hard to stay awake to see a glimpse 

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Morning all,

Up early, couldn't sleep anymore as Wife was snoring in my ear, bless her!!

So came downstairs to have cuppa and view the early morning runs.

Ended up with a partial covering on cars and wheelie bins before wet snow fizzled out, last night. Should imagine my son and daughter over at Chislehurst, fared better. Having seen those reports from members in nearby, Locksbottom and Orpington, Chislehurst's extra elevation would've seen to that!!

Attention now turns to Thursday, as was suggested on the Model thread yesterday evening, Thursday's Low now looks to track a little further South, which should mean less mixing out of cold air, for our Region. Although we vwouldn't want it to disappear off the radar, to the South altogether.

Looked at a recording of MeteoGroup's, Weather For The Week Ahead (with Matt Taylor). Matt stated that Thursday's system would be more potent than yesterday's feature and has the potential to give a depth of between 1 and 5 cms for our Region, quite widely. Although Stav Danaos only suggests 1 to 3 cms, in a recent Forecast.

Our neighbours to our N.W, will receive more though. This snow will eventually fizzle out and we'll then enter a quieter period of weather, dry but with some sharp overnight frosts. 

It looks as if some "brutal" cold over the U.S., will then fire up the Jet Stream, which will deliver alternating mild and colder spells, to the U.K. Matt finished his Forecast by stating that MeteoGroup are suggesting that a Euro High, will form to our East, in the extended outlook.

Having looked at the overnight runs, further into February. The Models seem to want to "sniff out". height rises over Scandinavia. But the Northern Arm of the Jet Stream will need to relent a bit first, IMO. It looks as if these initial attempts at a Scandy High, get flattened before taking "root".

But that's a long way off and let's hope we all see some decent snowfall, tomorrow.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Good morning all, and thanks @TomSE12 for your morning summary. I too am up early as the dog wanted to go outside - and what a beautiful morning it is! Glistening frost all around (our snow yesterday was fun but amounted to nothing much) and a crisp clear air and wonderful starry skies. Temps at  -2 and DP -2.6 and I wish it would stay there all day.  😁

 

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crystal clear night -2 no snow but it is so icy out , would genuinely proceed with caution!

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Ukmo ticked south on its 00z run and 00z keeps the heaviest precip in southern counties. 

However generally the models are around the same spot they were in last night, all be it with a few difference s.

Still considerable differences between front strength on the models as well. There is a pause of heavy snow forecast to run west-east but it's uncertain who would get it. General totals from ECM aren't that impressive away from the far south. Broadly 1-2 inches. However some models are more agressive.

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Carol suggesting 2-5cm in the SE tomorrow from around 6-7pm. Got a very slight dusting on cars in canterbury but nothing else! Third time lucky Thursday hopefully! 

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