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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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Best of luck to the SE gang tonight ?

Evening All, I hope other Members have no objection but just wanted to post up a Wintry Slideshow, for our Kentish Members. But I hope all Members will enjoy these very Wintry photos, from around

Best of luck yo you guys and girls in the South. Don't give up hope if it starts as rain. It rained here for about 2 hours now it's heavy snow. You should be good for a few cms also as it's very heavy

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Well the 18z ECM is out and thankfully no southward adjustment. A slight delay but its very consistent with the 12z ECM.

    Still gives a peak around 2 inches in 3hrs for southern coasts as per the 12z ECM, and band weakens at a similar place (over E.A and places west).

    As far as I can tell, yes Hammer.

    Edited by kold weather
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  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Well the 18z ECM is out and thankfully no southward adjustment. A slight delay but its very consistent with the 12z ECM.

    Still gives a peak around 2 inches in 3hrs for southern coasts as per the 12z ECM, and band weakens at a similar place (over E.A and places west).

    As far as I can tell, yes Hammer.

    So possibly better than tonight as it stands mate

    still a good 24 hrs for corrections unfortunately 

    Edited by snowbob
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  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
    9 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

    The models have not been very accurate for this area, recently. The EURO4 predicted snowfall on Sunday night, we received heavy rain all night, with a temp of 2c. The EURO 4 also predicted snowfall for this area this evening and overnight. 

    None of the models from what I can remember predicted snowfall in Central Eastern England and rainfall in Eastern East Anglia tonight.

    The Sunday night / Monday North Sea wintry showers the EURO4 always overplays - similarly 2 weeks ago it suggested 10cm of lying snow in Norfolk, when most other models only had 1cm. Eventually it backed off the idea - this is a known issue in the EURO4 with it's convective rain rates being excessively high, and hence convective accumulation too high.

    This plot from 21z may go some ways to help explain the marginality of tonight's rain/snow. Red shading highlights areas where the dewpoint is warmer in reality than EURO4 expectations, while blue depicts colder.

     

    deviation_T_21Z.png

    Edited by staplehurst
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  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl

    Not done too bad, and its still snowing quite a bit, cheered me up a bit, shame we can't get a main course, a week or two of this would be heaven.

    IMG_20190129_235645.jpg

    IMG_20190129_235536.jpg

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  • Location: Tenterden(TN30) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
  • Location: Tenterden(TN30) Kent

    Starting to ease off here - Hawkhurst, Kent. Everything white barring main roads. Got a cm or two on some surfaces, it's better than nothing!
    Looking forward to Thursday.

     

    Edited by <<Ryan>>
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  • Location: Worthing West Sussex.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & Snowy, Hot & Sunny & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex.

    Well down here on the coast we had rain, then more rain. As the colder air undercut the front it turned to sleet, then wet snow but nothing settled.

    Now we have very light sleet again, all in all probably the best we could of got given the set up. At least now I've seen a bit of snow falling this winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashford kent
  • Location: Ashford kent

    Oooh dummies and prams. Who is the ombudsman for nature.

    Disappointing but not much van be done.

     

    Meanwhile heavy snow here hopefully something for the chicken poxed twins to enjoy in the morning

     

     

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  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Raining... What the?

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  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Snowing here, don't know for how long, was busy playing pool till one lol. Not landing on pavements or roads, but gritter has just gritted.

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  • Location: Whitstable
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunder ~ both together would be great !
  • Location: Whitstable

    Can anyone confirm if we got any snow through the night near me no laying snow on the ground I tried so hard to stay awake to see a glimpse 

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  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    Morning all,

    Up early, couldn't sleep anymore as Wife was snoring in my ear, bless her!!

    So came downstairs to have cuppa and view the early morning runs.

    Ended up with a partial covering on cars and wheelie bins before wet snow fizzled out, last night. Should imagine my son and daughter over at Chislehurst, fared better. Having seen those reports from members in nearby, Locksbottom and Orpington, Chislehurst's extra elevation would've seen to that!!

    Attention now turns to Thursday, as was suggested on the Model thread yesterday evening, Thursday's Low now looks to track a little further South, which should mean less mixing out of cold air, for our Region. Although we vwouldn't want it to disappear off the radar, to the South altogether.

    Looked at a recording of MeteoGroup's, Weather For The Week Ahead (with Matt Taylor). Matt stated that Thursday's system would be more potent than yesterday's feature and has the potential to give a depth of between 1 and 5 cms for our Region, quite widely. Although Stav Danaos only suggests 1 to 3 cms, in a recent Forecast.

    Our neighbours to our N.W, will receive more though. This snow will eventually fizzle out and we'll then enter a quieter period of weather, dry but with some sharp overnight frosts. 

    It looks as if some "brutal" cold over the U.S., will then fire up the Jet Stream, which will deliver alternating mild and colder spells, to the U.K. Matt finished his Forecast by stating that MeteoGroup are suggesting that a Euro High, will form to our East, in the extended outlook.

    Having looked at the overnight runs, further into February. The Models seem to want to "sniff out". height rises over Scandinavia. But the Northern Arm of the Jet Stream will need to relent a bit first, IMO. It looks as if these initial attempts at a Scandy High, get flattened before taking "root".

    But that's a long way off and let's hope we all see some decent snowfall, tomorrow.

    Regards,

    Tom. :hi:

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  • Location: North Hampshire/Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: North Hampshire/Surrey

    Good morning all, and thanks @TomSE12 for your morning summary. I too am up early as the dog wanted to go outside - and what a beautiful morning it is! Glistening frost all around (our snow yesterday was fun but amounted to nothing much) and a crisp clear air and wonderful starry skies. Temps at  -2 and DP -2.6 and I wish it would stay there all day.  ?

     

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  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester

    crystal clear night -2 no snow but it is so icy out , would genuinely proceed with caution!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Ukmo ticked south on its 00z run and 00z keeps the heaviest precip in southern counties. 

    However generally the models are around the same spot they were in last night, all be it with a few difference s.

    Still considerable differences between front strength on the models as well. There is a pause of heavy snow forecast to run west-east but it's uncertain who would get it. General totals from ECM aren't that impressive away from the far south. Broadly 1-2 inches. However some models are more agressive.

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  • Location: Canterbury, Kent
  • Location: Canterbury, Kent

    Carol suggesting 2-5cm in the SE tomorrow from around 6-7pm. Got a very slight dusting on cars in canterbury but nothing else! Third time lucky Thursday hopefully! 

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  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Ukmo ticked south on its 00z run and 00z keeps the heaviest precip in southern counties. 

    However generally the models are around the same spot they were in last night, all be it with a few difference s.

    Still considerable differences between front strength on the models as well. There is a pause of heavy snow forecast to run west-east but it's uncertain who would get it. General totals from ECM aren't that impressive away from the far south. Broadly 1-2 inches. However some models are more agressive.

    In North Surrey here, so feeling quite optimistic for tomorrow.

    Is this looking like an all snow event for this area now? The rain really hampered settling last night. 

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  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    In North Surrey here, so feeling quite optimistic for tomorrow.

    Is this looking like an all snow event for this area now? The rain really hampered settling last night. 

    Providing no major changes, yes should be all snow.

    Also models have moved this back 3hrs. That will be most beneficial for coastal areas.

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