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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Last report from me.

Temp 0.8 degrees dew point 0 degrees.

snizzle. Settled on car roof where not too wet. No covering. On to Thursday so I can experience poor dew points again! Glad others got a decent covering of sorts. And at least my 3 year old got to see falling snow for the first time!

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Re Thursday.. met office and beeb both showing the snow turning back to rain in the early hours....what are the chances? Would really like any coverage to hang around for Friday!

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Still belting it down with snow but struggling to accumulate. 

Given latest S trend on the models & latest MO guidance as per EssexWeather Tweet above, I think for once, S of the M4 might be favoured. What was looking like a North Midlands event just a few days ago..

One slight concern is that if this thing shifts any further South we might all miss out entirely!

I personally suspect a slight shift back northwards, though the trend today has been further south for sure. Much further south and the guys in the northern part of the region will be really struggling.

 

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2 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

But then tonight wasn't supposed to be marginal in the East, but in the end the west got the snowfall. 

Erm

Yes it was 100% Marginal, what forecasts have you been watching for the last few days ??

If you want to see the Video I shared from Dan yesterday it pretty much went as he said it would, a period of rain with dewpoints not condusive to snow, lowering as the undercutting cold air spread from the NW turning the rain to snow. You were just unlucky to be under the part of the precip that shrank in size and intensity meaning the evaporative cooling process did not affect your part of Norfolk. It might be a good idea to learn the mechanics and processes of weather dynamics before making statements like that

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Just now, Darkcloud said:

Re Thursday.. met office and beeb both showing the snow turning back to rain in the early hours....what are the chances? Would really like any coverage to hang around for Friday!

Wouldn't worry too much about Beeb forecasts they're always a week behind the rest of the world

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33 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

winter wonderland 🙂

Where are you? I’m in Horley (Gatwick) so can’t be that far from you. Moderate wet snow and sleet is all. 

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My snow later changed to sleet and melted a lot of what has settled 😩😩😩 I hope Thursday is better!!

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Absolutely lovely covering here!! I I will post some pictures in the morning. It's mainly been fine, dusty flakes of snow, and is settling on pretty much all surfaces! 🙂

Edited by LightningLover

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45 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

apparently, Thursday's will not start as rain and will remain as snow apart from on the coast

Brilliant that’s me screwed then

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Euro4 now out to 54hrs on weather.us. VERY snowy evening for pretty much all of us. Pivot zone looks like its right over our region with maybe just the far south out of the zone and into the milder air, but by that time probably 2-4 inches con the ground.

It shows a transition back to rain on the southern boundary which is about 20 miles from coast.

Edited by kold weather

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7 minutes ago, john mac said:

Widely? 

As long as the front doesnt go further south yes 

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Well blow me down with a snowflake I’ve just seen a snowflake (just one) 🤗

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

5-10cm ! ATM

Does that mean zilch for hendon lol

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Just now, Swave Snow said:

Does that mean zilch for hendon lol

Wouldn't be suprised lol

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14 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Erm

Yes it was 100% Marginal, what forecasts have you been watching for the last few days ??

If you want to see the Video I shared from Dan yesterday it pretty much went as he said it would, a period of rain with dewpoints not condusive to snow, lowering as the undercutting cold air spread from the NW turning the rain to snow. You were just unlucky to be under the part of the precip that shrank in size and intensity meaning the evaporative cooling process did not affect your part of Norfolk. It might be a good idea to learn the mechanics and processes of weather dynamics before making statements like that

 

The point that I was making was that we in East Anglia, particularly the eastern side were due to receive snowfall. There were many posts yesterday and earlier today that referenced the fact that the western regions would have marginal conditions due precipitation starting there just before dusk, those same posts also stated that precipitation would fall as snow for a longer duration the further east one went.

What occurred was heavy snowfall over the central regions i.e. Cambridgeshire, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire and light drizzly rain over Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex. You have just stated yourself that the event did not come to pass as predicted.

We have now transitioned to snowfall, I don't know what will come with this but at the moment it is not lying aside from on the grass. If the event on Thursday were affecting me I wouldn't be as downbeat. 

If Thursday's event comes to play as predicted, that will be the third snowfall event that has turned into a damb quib here. Very disappointing.

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Euro4 now out to 54hrs on weather.us. VERY snowy evening for pretty much all of us. Pivot zone looks like its right over our region with maybe just the far south out of the zone and into the milder air, but by that time probably 2-4 inches con the ground.

It shows a transition back to rain on the southern boundary which is about 20 miles from coast.

You able to post a pic?

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4 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

I'm a Meteorology student so I find your post to be quite patronising.

 The point that I was making was that we in East Anglia, particularly the eastern side were due to receive snowfall. There were many posts yesterday and earlier today that referenced the fact that the western regions would have marginal conditions due to the fact that the precipitation started there just before dusk. Many posts also stated that precipitation would be snowfall for longer over the eastern regions.

 What occurred was heavy snowfall over the central regions i.e. Cambridgeshire, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire and light drizzly rain over Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex.

 We have now transitioned to snowfall, I don't know what will come with this but at the moment it is not lying aside from on the grass. If the event on Thursday were affecting me I wouldn't be as downbeat. 

The point is - We can only go based on what the models are showing us. It looked likely that many areas of this region would see a fairly prolonged period of snowfall after a short period of rain. Unfortunately as Paul explained some areas were under a slither of above freezing dew points thanks to a South-Easterly flow.  

Models do not always pick up tiny details like that, in the grand scheme of things they're not important but when it comes down to hyper local detail it can make a big difference, as tonight has shown. 

Rain/Sleet/Snow mix was always on the cards, some areas did well, some areas didn't do so well. I suspect the slowing of the frontal band helped areas further West to see snow because cold air was able to undercut a little earlier as a result.

Some areas have seen 2-3cm, some areas have seen a little more, some areas have seen very little or nothing, that's just how these things go.

Edited by Daniel Smith

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11 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

I'm a Meteorology student so I find your post to be quite patronising.

The point that I was making was that we in East Anglia, particularly the eastern side were due to receive snowfall. There were many posts yesterday and earlier today that referenced the fact that the western regions would have marginal conditions due to the fact that the precipitation started there just before dusk.

Now, what happened was that the western regions actually ended up with snow cover, and the eastern regions received heavy rainfall.

We have now transitioned to snowfall, I don't know what will come with this but at the moment it is not lying aside from on the grass. If the event on Thursday were affecting me I wouldn't be as downbeat. 

I hear what your saying

but your making out you missed out on a right dumping

my location had snow from 8  and is still lightly snowing now 

be lucky if there is a cm out there 

it was always going to be marginal 

the whole of our region

im just lucky that my location has fairly good elevation 

not quite sure what you were expecting 

Also your a student in meteorology you are far better than me at reading the models 

and I wasn’t expecting nowhere near as much as tonight

Plus no matter how good the model or the forecaster tonight was always a 100 percent a now cast situation

 

Edited by snowbob

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5 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

I'm a Meteorology student so I find your post to be quite patronising.

The point that I was making was that we in East Anglia, particularly the eastern side were due to receive snowfall. There were many posts yesterday and earlier today that referenced the fact that the western regions would have marginal conditions due to the fact that the precipitation started there just before dusk, those same posts also stated that precipitation would be snowfall for longer over the eastern regions.

What occurred was heavy snowfall over the central regions i.e. Cambridgeshire, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire and light drizzly rain over Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex. You have just stated yourself that the event did not come to pass as predicted.

We have now transitioned to snowfall, I don't know what will come with this but at the moment it is not lying aside from on the grass. If the event on Thursday were affecting me I wouldn't be as downbeat. 

Like stated from previous days, this event was so marginal it'd affect some areas and not others, try and chill out about it, it's not the end of the world! Regarding Thursday there's still a lot to be sorted within the forecast, I've just seen some people posting that we're looking between 5-10cm, yet some models want to give rain to the SE, and snow to Norfolk, the weather will do as it wants, Just keep the faith! 🙂 

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Wasnt meant to be patronising but if you are studying Meteorology am guessing at UEA then surely you could see the Low Pressure was losing intensity (Dan calls it Upper Forcing) then you could see that the Northern Extent of the Precip was struggling and with no heavy precip at 36f dewpoints it simply wasnt going to fall as snow, as the precip shield has waxed and waned away moving out towards the east when the favourable conditions (EG Dp's around freezing were there) the precip wasnt strong enough for the Norfolk area.

I always like to go through the event after it has happened to try and see why things happened and why things never happened and wrote a paper on the infamous 2009 Snow Event that many Met Students have asked to do studies on (That event was triggered by an Inversion around the Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex Coasts) that stopped the Snow from reaching the ground other than polystyrene balls with cloud tops at 37,000ft and Uppers of -14. The same Convective storms moved from the ENE to WSW and gave over a foot of snow to London.

Its all a learning process, was not meant to be patronising in any way

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6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The point is - We can only go based on what the models are showing us. It looked likely that many areas of this region would see a fairly prolonged period of snowfall after a short period of rain. Unfortunately as Paul explained some areas were under a slither of above freezing dew points thanks to a South-Easterly flow.  

Models do not always pick up tiny details like that, in the grand scheme of things they're not important but when it comes down to hyper local detail it can make a big difference, as tonight has shown. 

Rain/Sleet/Snow mix was always on the cards, some areas did well, some areas didn't do so well. I suspect the slowing of the frontal band helped areas further West to see snow because cold air was able to undercut a little earlier as a result.

Some areas have seen 2-3cm, some areas have seen a little more, some areas have seen very little or nothing, that's just how these things go.

You explained it better than me Dan - Thanks

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4 minutes ago, snowbob said:

I hear what your saying

but your making out you missed out on a right dumping

my location had snow from 8  and is still lightly snowing now 

be lucky if there is a cm out there 

it was always going to be marginal 

the whole of our region

im just lucky that my location has fairly good elevation 

not quite sure what you were expecting 

Olus your a student in meteorology you are far better than me at reading the models 

and I wasn’t expecting nowhere near as much as tonight

Plus no matter how good the model or the forecaster tonight was always a 100 percent a now cast situation

 

The models have not been very accurate for this area, recently. The EURO4 predicted snowfall on Sunday night, we received heavy rain all night, with a temp of 2c. The EURO 4 also predicted snowfall for this area this evening and overnight. 

None of the models from what I can remember predicted snowfall in Central Eastern England and rainfall in Eastern East Anglia tonight.

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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