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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Just left London Bridge and it's dry as a bone. 

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6 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

3.8c now.

I use this snow risk calculator which is usually fairly accurate once the figure gets to 70%.

http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowProbCalc

 

Thanks for this. I'm using this I found on google..

 

 

fullsizeoutput_129e.jpeg

Edited by onepingonly

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4 minutes ago, Bazza118 said:

Just left London Bridge and it's dry as a bone. 

Still 30-40 miles West at the moment

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1 hour ago, Isle of Harry said:

Still no precipitation here in Thanet - Met Office and BBC said we'd be flooded by now. 

Hope you're not expecting snow!

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6 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

3.8c now.

I use this snow risk calculator which is usually fairly accurate once the figure gets to 70%.

http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowProbCalc

 

Didn't expect this website to deliver a sobering truth like that...

39c9540f6e5bbd72708c8fdf8c3951f5.png

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Dewpoints are nowhere near good enough across the entire South East ranging from 2-3c.................But there are quite a few 0c and 1c Dp's to our North West over the Midlands and its this undercutting cold we need to head from the NW into our region as the precip moves through bringing that evaporative cooling into play.

It will be interesting to see how quickly it undercuts this evening

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1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Didn't expect this website to deliver a sobering truth like that...

39c9540f6e5bbd72708c8fdf8c3951f5.png

Said the same for me too...very sobering indeed 😂 lol 

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31 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Tonight or Thursday?

Thursday, most models don't show much if anything for tonight, always a chance it could pull a surprise like that trough that came through, but I think settled snow will be restricted to higher altitudes, probably 150M ish.

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1 minute ago, Nick1972 said:

Said the same for me too...very sobering indeed 😂 lol 

That is Greenhithes Strapline!!

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Dewpoints are nowhere near good enough across the entire South East ranging from 2-3c.................But there are quite a few 0c and 1c Dp's to our North West over the Midlands and its this undercutting cold we need to head from the NW into our region as the precip moves through bringing that evaporative cooling into play.

It will be interesting to see how quickly it undercuts this evening

started off as 1 hour rain here on the Marlborough Down nr Swindon and for the last 30 mins has been moderate snow Paul, and surprisingly settling readily as the undercut digs in.....currently 2.1C with a dewpoint of -0.4C for reference

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1 minute ago, beerandkebab said:

started off as 1 hour rain here on the Marlborough Down nr Swindon and for the last 30 mins has been moderate snow Paul, and surprisingly settling readily as the undercut digs in.....currently 2.1C with a dewpoint of -0.4C for reference

Thanks buddy, thats the sort of report which is vital to areas further east.

Enjoy that settling snow, should get a top up on Thursday as well.

And the growing signs of High Pressure to our North East on the models gathers pace for the 2nd week of February as well.

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11 minutes ago, onepingonly said:

Thanks for this. I'm using this I found on google..

 

 

fullsizeoutput_129e.jpeg

Yeah, I use that calculator. It's nearly always on the ball.

It works on the basis that snow will fall if the air temperature is within 1 degree of the melting temperature, of snow.

Edited by Nqp15hhu

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All sounds promising I'd say.... especially with added 'oomph' from the night hours.

Good to hear of settling snow too - goes to show not to be too down if it starts as rain, may well end up white... 

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moderate rain in beddy.

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20 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

3.8c now.

I use this snow risk calculator which is usually fairly accurate once the figure gets to 70%.

http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowProbCalc

 

Currently it says "more likely to snow in hell." 😭😭

Need temp to drop, currently 4.4 but heading in the right direction. 😊

Edited by Mizzle

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10 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Didn't expect this website to deliver a sobering truth like that...

39c9540f6e5bbd72708c8fdf8c3951f5.png

Yep, I had that throughout Monday evening when that trough was over us, at temps of 2c.

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3 hours ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Don't understand the negativity. The front will be over us for 4 or 5 hours near midnight, that is plenty of time for evaporative cooling to take hold.

Cos it'll be rain 

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Looking at the radar and it seems to be fizzling out - not sure there will be much left on it. 

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Looking at the radar and it seems to be fizzling out - not sure there will be much left on it. 

It’s not! I’m in it...

 

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Northants still heavy rain.

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