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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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26 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Ahh now Thursday still on course for a few cm of snow before it turns to rain especially the further east you are

Possibly the most depressing scenario😢

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According to the radar Bristol in the south-west is getting buried at the moment so surely that must be a good sign for those in the south of our region?

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1 hour ago, Sparky68 said:

After todays hype , If the snow does not show the Mod thread will implode

probably for the best lol

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1 minute ago, Delka said:

According to the radar Bristol in the south-west is getting buried at the moment so surely that must be a good sign for those in the south of our region?

Just east of Bristol - around 200m above sea level

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anim_fjn8.gif

 

Quite a thin band but could give a dusting, wet ground an issue unless it’s heavy 

Edited by Weathizard
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The good news is that the TAFs for Norwich & Stansted have now been amended with an increased likelihood of snow. Still not great and still likely to be wet and slushy but better than nothing. Still time for further amendments to come.

Defo more positive now.

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2 minutes ago, Delka said:

According to the radar Bristol in the south-west is getting buried at the moment so surely that must be a good sign for those in the south of our region?

Except that it’s rain!

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1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

Just east of Bristol - around 200m above sea level

Wow, never knew that that area was so high 😮 Always assumed it was close to sea level as they tend to struggle with snowfall but I guess that's just because of how far south it is

1 minute ago, username home said:

Except that it’s rain!

Yes.. checking the south-west thread it does seem the radar is being a bit too enthusiastic with dealing out the pinks today

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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

anim_fjn8.gif

 

Quite a thin band but could give a dusting, wet ground an issue unless it’s heavy 

HIRLAM is looking good

anim_vgm9.gif

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The 12z ICON for our neck of the woods looks similar except the precipitation is even more intense this time probably due to a slightly faster movement east.

To start with the Snow line is about 20 miles north of the coast (this mainly is for Hampshire/W.Sussex) however it very rapidly drops to the coast due to the intense precipitation and cooling down into the evening hours.

Great run!

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Not that weather related, but feeling quite squiffy, as I've sat and eaten a pack of 6 sausage rolls here in Potters Bar.

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3 minutes ago, Delka said:

Wow, never knew that that area was so high 😮 Always assumed it was close to sea level as they tend to struggle with snowfall but I guess that's just because of how far south it is

Yes.. checking the south-west thread it does seem the radar is being a bit too enthusiastic with dealing out the pinks today

Precipitation type radars will never be perfect because they are based on model algorithms - so if the model hasn't quite captured the right vertical profile, then the 'precip type radar' will also be incorrect. Also, a lot of these precip type radar products won't adjust for evaporative cooling in the heavier bursts of precipitation. The Met Office precipitation radar (the grey maps they occasionally tweet) uses model algorithms but also compensates for evaporative cooling and adjusts accordingly.

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5-8cms roughly from the ICON, but the big difference is the fact that its now coming down over a 3-4hrs period, so a higher rate of snowfall, especially in a sweet spot over Hampshire and into Sussex.

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And as luck would have it,exactly as I suspected, it's raining... 

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1 minute ago, Daenerys said:

And as luck would have it,exactly as I suspected, it's raining... 

It's supposed to, no snow was due until much much later

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1 minute ago, Daenerys said:

And as luck would have it,exactly as I suspected, it's raining... 

It was always going to rain

at first

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

5-8cms roughly from the ICON, but the big difference is the fact that its now coming down over a 3-4hrs period, so a higher rate of snowfall, especially in a sweet spot over Hampshire and into Sussex.

I’d rather that. Evap cooling and heavier precip = easier to settle (in theory) 

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

5-8cms roughly from the ICON, but the big difference is the fact that its now coming down over a 3-4hrs period, so a higher rate of snowfall, especially in a sweet spot over Hampshire and into Sussex.

Thursdays?

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10 minutes ago, Delka said:

Wow, never knew that that area was so high 😮 Always assumed it was close to sea level as they tend to struggle with snowfall but I guess that's just because of how far south it is

Yes.. checking the south-west thread it does seem the radar is being a bit too enthusiastic with dealing out the pinks today

Sure is. I live in North Bristol near to M5/M4 motorway interchange. It is lashing it down with rain at mo; those pinks are wrong.

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18 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Guys

I want to get in early and try to stop the doom and gloom posts that are going to happen around 4-7pm tomorrow in this Regional Thread. Why are these posts going to happen I hear you say ?? Well simple, it will RAIN first before the precip turns to snow. You might see, WHAT A BUST, You might see, WHAT A PATHETIC COLD SPELL, You might see, WE ONLY GET SNOW FROM EASTERLIES

Please Please Please watch the Video Dan has posted up, and please watch all nearly 7 minutes of it, you might learn something, you might already know what he is describing, but more importantly it lays out what is expected to happen and why some places have people swinging from the Chandeleers with Heavy snow whilst others have a wintry mix

Thanks to Dan (Staplehurst) for putting this Video together

might be a good time to refer back to this excellent post from last night - as predicted we are getting towards 4pm and there are the clamours of "but it's raining"....

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11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The 12z ICON for our neck of the woods looks similar except the precipitation is even more intense this time probably due to a slightly faster movement east.

To start with the Snow line is about 20 miles north of the coast (this mainly is for Hampshire/W.Sussex) however it very rapidly drops to the coast due to the intense precipitation and cooling down into the evening hours.

Great run!

Might be good to put this is for Thursday. To stop the questions. LOL

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22 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Hopeful with around 100m elevation and being quite far east, that Orpington will do ok - probably more so the Cheslfield end which goes up to more like 150m.

That's me 🙂

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19 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Croydon Council are on full snow alert for tonight & Thursday. All teams have been briefed and prepared.

which means that their budget of £5.99p will be spent on 500grams of rock salt which one lucky council worker will get to put on his path

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