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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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BBC's high res graphics a major upgrade at 1:30

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TAFs for Gatwick and Heathrow mentioning snow after 19z, temporary heavy snow showers between 20-23z

Gatwick

EGKK 291058Z 2912/3018 13005KT 9999 SCT040 TEMPO 2912/2919 4000 SHRA BKN008 BECMG 2918/2921 31012KT TEMPO 2919/2924 2000 SHRASN BKN006 PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004 PROB30 3015/3018 VRB03KT

Heathrow

EGLL 291058Z 2912/3018 16005KT 9999 SCT030 PROB30 TEMPO 2914/2919 8000 SHRA BKN008 TEMPO 2919/2923 2000 SHRASN BKN006 PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004 BECMG 2921/2924 30010KT

 

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Also about the 06z ECM, accumulating snowfall (this takes into account possible melting as snow settles, etc) is showing broadly 2-3 inches in the region, though a few do jackpot upto 4-5 inches. This is a little higher than the yellow warning but then again the ECM is a touch more active on its 06z than it was on the 00z which may explain the difference.

Pretty rapid melt shown on Friday as well, would be quite patchy covering by the end of the day.

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Dry as a bone still in Thanet - Variable sky which I'm sure will change in a few hours to light rain, then who knows? 

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I shouldn't but!

ECM 06z run from this morning showing Thursdays snow risk

810149030_ECM6z1.thumb.png.5eab3f3cb4282ea08d5a212c34866871.png480565848_ECM6z2.thumb.png.ac4c75839126235f3de1cf3c23d2dc0b.png

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19 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

So 6 or 7 hours of snow, potentially for us in East Anglia.

Sorry but the Norwich TAF says that if you get any snow at all (which is unlikely) it will only be very brief, an hour at most.

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Met office pretty bullish on Thursdays event...
Capture.thumb.jpg.0c3ac6a717c2f486f3e5e52c98f25411.jpg

Seen a temp drop of a degree here in the last hour: 5.8C >> 4.8C with light rain.
hoping that cold air is starting to edge out that milder southerly already...

Edited by mrkipling

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Cold rain on its way! Hold tight...

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Must be patient today. It will all start as rain. It's currently 6c here in Cambridgeshire, it's only later into the evening when the transition starts and hopefully leave a covering of snow as it passes, then a very frosty night.

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22 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Everything running along smoothly

Snow from 5 till midnight

Radar looks great and the timing

Temperature s now peaking and should slowing drop

I live close by, in Greenford, and all i see on met office app is rain and sleet. Hope your right.

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It's raining lightly in Brighton, not that cold tho. Yesterday was much colder than today.

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BBC London forecast suggesting accumulations over hills and maybe some slush over lower ground, oh well, be nice to see it falling under the lamppost if that's the case, just hope Thursday sees a better chance of accumulations in our area, though it may not hang around if the band moves too far north.

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Any rain at the moment in our region is coming from showers that have developed in front of the frontal system. This maybe the area of lighter precipitation the models were clocking onto in the last few days.

cold front will slowly head east and will probably lose some intensity, the 3hr averages aren't exactly electric so its not going to be too significant in strength. If you use Net-weather radar, the 06z ECM would show rainfall rates that would equate to the two lower green colours. If that makes sense!

Also, the amount of information we have now is amazing I should say, we get insights into UKMO and ECM we could only dream of 10 years ago. I remember having to try and extrapolate a pattern based off a ECM wind speed map each 24hrs back in the mid 00s. Very different these days!!

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1 hour ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Don't understand the negativity. The front will be over us for 4 or 5 hours near midnight, that is plenty of time for evaporative cooling to take hold.

Cos it'll be rain 

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

BBC London forecast suggesting accumulations over hills and maybe some slush over lower ground, oh well, be nice to see it falling under the lamppost if that's the case, just hope Thursday sees a better chance of accumulations in our area, though it may not hang around if the band moves too far north.

Exactly the same rhetoric from Look East too. Likely to see snow falling but not much settling going off that although the Met office chart from their live cast earlier showed snow from 5pm to midnight over most of the region

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19 minutes ago, Nick F said:

TAFs for Gatwick and Heathrow mentioning snow after 19z, temporary heavy snow showers between 20-23z

Gatwick

EGKK 291058Z 2912/3018 13005KT 9999 SCT040 TEMPO 2912/2919 4000 SHRA BKN008 BECMG 2918/2921 31012KT TEMPO 2919/2924 2000 SHRASN BKN006 PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004 PROB30 3015/3018 VRB03KT

Heathrow

EGLL 291058Z 2912/3018 16005KT 9999 SCT030 PROB30 TEMPO 2914/2919 8000 SHRA BKN008 TEMPO 2919/2923 2000 SHRASN BKN006 PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004 BECMG 2921/2924 30010KT

 

Yes. But this is the thing Nick - PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004. Its a Prob 30 which means that the +SHSN will most likely not happen. Now if it was a prob 40 that would be a different matter. The tempo means that even if it did happen it would last no longer than half the period covered which would mean 1.5hrs at best. Hence my pessimism.

Only prob 30 & no more than 1.5 hrs.

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10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

BBC London forecast suggesting accumulations over hills and maybe some slush over lower ground, oh well, be nice to see it falling under the lamppost if that's the case, just hope Thursday sees a better chance of accumulations in our area, though it may not hang around if the band moves too far north.

after all the hype and hundreds of posts we are going to end up with slush lol

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After todays hype , If the snow does not show the Mod thread will implode

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2 minutes ago, Always Upsidedown said:

Yes. But this is the thing Nick - PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004. Its a Prob 30 which means that the +SHSN will most likely not happen. Now if it was a prob 40 that would be a different matter. The tempo means that even if it did happen it would last no longer than half the period covered which would mean 1.5hrs at best. Hence my pessimism.

Only prob 30 & no more than 1.5 hrs.

Yes, not the best probability is it. Though even Luton Airport has 30% prob of snow and it's 150m asl according to streetmap/OS. Would expect better snow probs up there so not so sure the probability on TAFs is always a good guide. 

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Still looking as close to marginal as we could get, looking at GFS, it puts the 528 line in front of the main band just as the heavier stuff moves in around evening time.

By midnight the 528 line is well into France and precip band centred over our region.

Ive used the 528 line a lot in marginal set ups before and it tends to work quite well.

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Already this morning I've lost my snow symbols on Meto, then I lost my weather warning...... But have now gained back my snow symbols and heavier ones for Thursday eve with a weather warning from today to Friday!!! Hahaha!!!! Nowcasting at it's finest and just goes to show how these systems can change within just a couple of hours, lol!!!

ETA - although my temp is currently 5.7c in Ashtead (nr Epsom) and trending up 🤔 BUT look how quickly they dropped like a stone yesterday!!

Edited by weathergeek

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7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

after all the hype and hundreds of posts we are going to end up with slush lol

Could do with it all correcting northwards...Nice slush event for oor friends oop north?

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5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

after all the hype and hundreds of posts we are going to end up with slush lol

Certainly a desperate lot to see snow aren't we! Let's hope Thursday brings something to remember, because an hour of wet snow and slush will be a bit underwhelming after the build up

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