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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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Just now, bluearmy said:

 I’ll wait till Wednesday 12z runs - that could quite easily be meh compared to expectations but clearly that’s an active front and sliding system so very different so many areas will get plenty of precip - then it’s down to other factors. 

I wonder whether or not the fact NE France is having a decent snowfall today is going to help us out by helping to lower the boundary level temperatures. May explain why the 850hpa temps aren't that low yet models still suggesting snow in what would otherwise look too marginal for snow.

Of course that will all mean nothing if the wind shifts S/SW as per the GFS OP, in that case we are going to drag much milder air and we can kiss any snow goodbye away from maybe the far north of the region.

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For the early birds tomorrow morning:

iconeu_uk1-45-19-0.thumb.png.f60229462b1459e0590693c28526d37b.pngiconeu_uk1-46-19-0.thumb.png.345282d90764fd696c9776af4118dfb3.png

Edited by IDO

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1 minute ago, IDO said:

For the early birds tomorrow morning:

iconeu_uk1-45-19-0.thumb.png.f60229462b1459e0590693c28526d37b.png

Looks like quite a long period of precipitation 

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I'm glad I have today off work so I can watch this system move towards us! 

WQ radar vs MO Doppler radar

373686144_Screenshot2019-01-29at12_07_49.thumb.png.4207a354a43689b1fefb2f4cdfa493f0.png38356927_Screenshot2019-01-29at12_08_14.thumb.png.2ef8914cb444cbd592f1c711062c98da.png

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Just now, Always Upsidedown said:

Yup. Roads might be pretty icy in the morning.

Or thick with snow😉

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42 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

I think a week of snow chances across the UK is a cold spell yes, would be nice to think any falls might not melt to fast but you can't have it all.

Don't get your expectations up every time people mention cold and snow, people seem to think that every snow or cold spell is going to be The perfect storm, welcome to reality the spectrum of different kinds of snow event is endless.

I do hope your cornflakes taste better tomorrow anyway👍

Wasn’t aware I was only allowed to use a phrase once 😂  I respect where you are coming from but this isn’t a true cold spell for the majority of the south IMO, hopefully it delivers for many of you though, don’t begrudge anyone that. 

IMO this winter has promised a lot but delivered very little, we are feeding of scraps in truth.

 

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35 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

The weathertrending update on Facebook by John won't get the heart beating with great enthusiasm for tonight - the snow cover timelapse he's posted forecasts patchy accumulations of 1cm at best through-out. Can't be ruled out

 

 

1

Medway looks tasty on that, fingers crossed.

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Just now, throwoff said:

Medway looks tasty on that, fingers crossed.

I'll let you know if Strood gets any..

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I'm all prepared for clearing the driveway this week, here's one I did back in March

 

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3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Or thick with snow😉

1450851209_Snow20in20Labrador201_g8i23.thumb.jpg.de047791f5e6f56e679eddfd5aa9bee1.jpg

 

 

that's better, bit of optimism

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Really hoping we get something decent tonight and over the next few days. Fingers crossed for everyone . 

My little boy would love the surprise of snow in the morning.

The met are getting more confident of the very much colder weather I see from there website... Hope it doesn't change .

 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 26 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

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5 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Or thick with snow😉

That would be nice but I suspect that Southend will get nothing and my neck of the woods (Stansted) will get next to nothing or nothing at all in terms of snow fall. That's based on the airport TAFs and they are seldom wrong I am afraid.

Hoping that Thursday turns out to be a bit better because for me all hope of anything even half decent has gone for tonight.

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Buzzing from 5pm to midnight tonight the ppn should land west of london start off as sleet then turn rapidly to snow with temperature s around 3c dropping to around 1-2c

Dew pts should be around 0c aswell so some places could see up to 5 cms

Happy radar watching is on its way

The ppn over wales is heading straight our way

Edited by Lampostwatcher

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16 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Looks like quite a long period of precipitation 

looking forward to making a precipitation man

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and while we wait for the 2cm to bring the country to a standstill

Chicago is preparing to come to a standstill....https://abc7chicago.com/live/

because of the cold. they have had their high temperature for today ....-17c ...expected to fall to minus 37c 😮

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2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

looking forward to making a precipitation man

HUSH or I'll throw a precipitation ball at you!!

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2 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

and while we wait for the 2cm to bring the country to a standstill

Chicago is preparing to come to a standstill....https://abc7chicago.com/live/

because of the cold. they have had their high temperature for today ....-17c ...expected to fall to minus 37c 😮

-37 and i thought it was cold today with everything in the shade still iced over

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3 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

and while we wait for the 2cm to bring the country to a standstill

Chicago is preparing to come to a standstill....https://abc7chicago.com/live/

because of the cold. they have had their high temperature for today ....-17c ...expected to fall to minus 37c 😮

Marginal at best🤪😂

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13 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Really hoping we get something decent tonight and over the next few days. Fingers crossed for everyone . 

My little boy would love the surprise of snow in the morning.

The met are getting more confident of the very much colder weather I see from there website... Hope it doesn't change .

 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 26 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

Wow that's a pretty good update!Fingers crossed. Back to the here and now I'm excited to see how tonight unfolds. Good luck guys!!! 😁

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2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

-37 and i thought it was cold today with everything in the shade still iced over

windchill to -48c..frostbite in 5 mins to exposed skin

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16 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Really hoping we get something decent tonight and over the next few days. Fingers crossed for everyone . 

My little boy would love the surprise of snow in the morning.

The met are getting more confident of the very much colder weather I see from there website... Hope it doesn't change .

 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 26 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

I wonder where the confidence is coming from. Some support for the Siberian high to back West but they are beyond impossible to forecast especially at range. Their extended outlook has consistently gone for "cold or very cold" but has kept being pushed back and back, so I'm personally not convinced.

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I will be in here from 530

expecting 2-4cm across the piste

maybe 5 here due to height...

X

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