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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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Just now, Icebox said:

You and me both... but then we are both on the coast. I'm glad you said it and not me, I don't want to be accused of bringing all this negativity to the thread.

Good luck to those further north and enjoy your snow fix.

Don’t get me wrong I don’t begrudge anyone snow, I honestly hope everyone gets their fix I just absolutely despise cold rain and slush! I suppose living by the sea we were always going to be less favoured here but a few days ago it looked like all snow for our region, then as we’ve got closer it’s wtarted to favour the midlands and the north, always the way.

Hoping for some proper cold in February, it really doesn’t feel cold at all outside tbh.

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Best of luck to the SE gang tonight ?

Evening All, I hope other Members have no objection but just wanted to post up a Wintry Slideshow, for our Kentish Members. But I hope all Members will enjoy these very Wintry photos, from around

Best of luck yo you guys and girls in the South. Don't give up hope if it starts as rain. It rained here for about 2 hours now it's heavy snow. You should be good for a few cms also as it's very heavy

Posted Images

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

If you call a ‘cold spell’ 6c by day then your idea of a cold spell is clearly different to mine mate, there’s going to be a lot of people disappointed by tonight IMO

I think a week of snow chances across the UK is a cold spell yes, would be nice to think any falls might not melt to fast but you can't have it all.

Don't get your expectations up every time people mention cold and snow, people seem to think that every snow or cold spell is going to be The perfect storm, welcome to reality the spectrum of different kinds of snow event is endless.

I do hope your cornflakes taste better tomorrow anyway?

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3 minutes ago, turkishfella said:

it's getting darker in Brighton with grey clouds and feel so cold. Could this be snow already?

Yup its just off the coast - currently light rain (though its over the water so no surprise its rain) ahead of the main front

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Dare I say it the current set up for tonight favours Central/Eastern East Anglia as the precip clears at midnight, I may just be in the sweet spot with this one (for a change), depending on how much of it will fall as snow. The meto warning update reflects that - and restricts accumulations further south east (London/Kent/Surrey) to the more higher ground. We'll have to see - will be nice for the tides to turn this time though as I missed out last time! 

Also RE Thursday, the charts don't scream out to me a major fall (maybe up to 5cm?) - unless I'm missing something? Again completely depends on timing and whether the entire precipitation band falls as snow. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

HIRLAM has it slower imo

The Met Office have updated the Warnings for Here

Updated:

 

10:49 on Tue 29 Jan 2019 GMT

Reason for update

The start time of the warning has been brought forward to cater for some snowfall during peak travel times Tuesday evening and the expected amounts of snow have been reduced.

 

MetO Warning

 

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10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Not too surprised regarding the warnings that are being put up by the Met Office, they are fairly broad and general at the moment due to the uncertainty regarding the exact track and placement of accumulations.

A fair chance that by tomorrow we may see an amber warning need to be issued, at least over the north of this area IMO. Providing the models don't shift towards the GFS OP (which is looking less likely IMO this morning).

Don’t ramp it up kold - this evening is already looking to be a damp squib for much of the region (as some of us expected it would )

Thursdays front is shearing - small lows appearing on the occlusion so away from some lucky sweet spots, that could also prove a bit less enthusiastic....more to go on that obviously - would be surprised if they want amber on it 

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The weathertrending update on Facebook by John won't get the heart beating with great enthusiasm for tonight - the snow cover timelapse he's posted forecasts patchy accumulations of 1cm at best through-out. Can't be ruled out

 

 

Edited by Matty88
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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Don’t ramp it up kold - this evening is already looking to be a damp squib for much of the region (as some of us expected it would )

Thursdays front is shearing - small lows appearing on the occlusion so away from some lucky sweet spots, that could also prove a bit less enthusiastic....more to go on that obviously - would be surprised if they want amber on it 

Possibly.

However I dare say I also remember Tuesday's trough wasn't exactly forecasted to be that snowy, yet turned much more snowy than was first expected. Got a funny feeling a lot will depend on exactly how active the system is when it arrives. Weaker and the marginality will probably be just on the wrong side for most, a stronger front may swing the difference. Altitude clearly is going to be important as well. Lets wait and see how this plays out, and hopefully some do get good results!

As for Thursday, when I said amber, to be fair I was thinking maybe NW of the region and that's my fault for not making that at all clear!

I agree that yellow should suffice for most of us unless there is a change in the situation. Even then, I don't think the snow is going to be staying around too long, could all be gone by the following day even with a bigger fall.

 

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Interesting that the front is moving quicker than anticipated and due to arrive earlier here. Both go against getting higher snowfall amounts. That said a few cms still possible but likely more with elevation. I think the changes will go against anyone near coast/at sea level getting accumulations. I might be wrong. I hope I am.

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Yeah that is also not a great thing CandianCoops.

EURO4 still going for a bit of a mixed, in the heavier precipitation and on the higher ground snow comes down and settles according to the Euro4, though /I know its not the best with settling snow. Looks like it may be best to describe this event as forecasted as patchy. Some areas will get some snow, some probably none.

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10 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Interesting that the front is moving quicker than anticipated and due to arrive earlier here. Both go against getting higher snowfall amounts. That said a few cms still possible but likely more with elevation. I think the changes will go against anyone near coast/at sea level getting accumulations. I might be wrong. I hope I am.

Agree, not something i wanted to see, the slower front was the better evo.

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Latest TAF for Stansted (EGSS) now out and still not showing anything significant at all for the Stansted area. We will be lucky to get anything more than a bit of sleet or a slight covering of snow if the TAF is correct and it usually is. Same for Heathrow, Luton & Gatwick with nothing at all for southend.

Not looking at all good I am afraid. Perhaps Thursday will yield something better.

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15 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

how are we looking BA? Do you think we will get anything noteworthy? 

Never been too keen on it since it began to weaken a couple days ago on the modelling .... some will get a nice surprise (as is always the way ) but for south herts I’m not hopeful.  More concern re ice in the morning ......

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Never been too keen on it since it began to weaken a couple days ago on the modelling .... some will get a nice surprise (as is always the way ) but for south herts I’m not hopeful.  More concern re ice in the morning ......

Are you getting excited about Thursday at all? Feels like its a similar event to today but with higher chance of a few more cm's.

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Just now, CanadianCoops said:

Are you getting excited about Thursday at all? Feels like its a similar event to today but with higher chance of a few more cm's.

 I’ll wait till Wednesday 12z runs - that could quite easily be meh compared to expectations but clearly that’s an active front and sliding system so very different so many areas will get plenty of precip - then it’s down to other factors. 

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The ICON 09z shows the milder sector in the SE which causes the less than ideal for snow issues:

iconeu_uk1-16-12-0.thumb.png.08fef93f7ba901527b22885e1fdee02a.pngiconeu_uk1-56-12-0.thumb.png.5725bda07133046f205ab6d0cb108305.png

I now suspect that the below chart represents where the sweet spot is for our region:

iconeu_uk1-56-13-0.thumb.png.60db9f74c040b65adb6082657e030ccc.png

Anyone east of there should have a better shot at the snow to lower levels, though again marginal.

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Just now, bluearmy said:

 I’ll wait till Wednesday 12z runs - that could quite easily be meh compared to expectations but clearly that’s an active front and sliding system so very different so many areas will get plenty of precip - then it’s down to other factors. 

I wonder whether or not the fact NE France is having a decent snowfall today is going to help us out by helping to lower the boundary level temperatures. May explain why the 850hpa temps aren't that low yet models still suggesting snow in what would otherwise look too marginal for snow.

Of course that will all mean nothing if the wind shifts S/SW as per the GFS OP, in that case we are going to drag much milder air and we can kiss any snow goodbye away from maybe the far north of the region.

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