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Blessed Weather

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

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3 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:

There's a Plan? if there's a plan what's plan B? I hope COBR is going to brief us soon 

Of course there's a plan! But, until tonight, we won't know whether to expect Plan A or Plan B? You never know, they might even be the same plan?:hi:

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3 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Plan B is to put wheels on the sledge and ask for a push 🤣

Plan C ... shoppping trollies down boxhill

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Currently 2.2c here--partly cloudy

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Following on from SQ1's radar pic - this pic illustrates nicely those with dew points above freezing and reporting rain, and those reporting snow.

cgicurrentgraph.thumb.gif.1cc30a5e6426f2e8d1ec3dbc78619387.gif 

@Snow Queen oneI think its taking the track forecast into the bay of biscay.

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06z model suite coming out. Basically all the 06z runs are staying where they are.

GFS OP is poor for our region, as per normal!

GFSP has a good snow event but does turn to rain at the end, especially further south.

ARPEGE is sensational for our area, but IMO is too far south

ICON is also very good run, but has moved further north to be more inline with the ECM/UKMO.

HIRLAM doesn't run past 48hrs BUT the angle of the front and LP placement looks like its going to follow the UKMO/ECM broadly.

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Phone going mental with Met0 updates. I now have yellow warning for the next eon. 

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ECM isn't terrible for our region on Thursday. East Anglia looking to fair best with those South of the river seeing a rain > snow > rain event

EC1.thumb.png.64b66973f84e0f1a3f4cc4ce537a904e.pngEC2.thumb.png.c9ebab9eb206e73148a1d7778a4837c5.pngEC3.thumb.png.b6010d6f5317837e9376fc6d01e210aa.png

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29 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Below is a photo of a frozen, Pegwell Bay, between Ramsgate and Sandwich, in February 1985.

After a very cold January, CET of 0.8c, February came in with a slightly milder CET of 2.1c.

This photo reproduced with the kind permission of Ian Currie, from his Kent County Weather Book. Excuse my thumb!!

image.thumb.png.e782960198377e07eeaa1288eeee2e0f.png

12 months later, the FEB.1986 CET, came in at -1.1c :shok:

Oh, for a February as cold as 1986 this year but with a bit more snow, please!!

Although, what little snow fell in S.E.London, hung around due to the intensity of the cold.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

With the now-gone Richborough Power Station in the background! That photo feels like 'home' to me 🙂

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4 minutes ago, Keefo said:

Currently 2.2c here--partly cloudy

4.4 here, dp 1.5

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image.thumb.png.f8410018953fdd42fca820bb039ec33e.png

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Temps and Dps across the region.

 

tp1.png

dp1.png

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5 minutes ago, dallas said:

How often does the SE have 4 days in a row of weather warnings for snow. Thought this week would get interesting....lets hope we luck out on the higher end for both events 🙂

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I feel there might be a lot of disappointed people come tomorrow morning - okay might be some places that do better than others (just a hunch). Saying that I've just noticed -20 dew point over me for tonight on those charts above (I'm in the sweet spot) 🙂

Edited by Froze were the Days

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The Stansted airport TAF (EGSS) issued at 04:56 is saying that there is a low probability of snow for that area so its looking like I will be lucky to see anything at all. Booooooooo. The next TAF is due out any time now so hoping for a decent upgrade with fingers crossed.

Good luck to the rest of you.

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4.4C - weak sunshine through high-level cloud.

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Ok here goes - am I the only one who isn’t satisfied by this slushfest? In our region realistically the snow isn’t going to last regardless of if we get a CM or 2 laying it’ll be melted by midday

Given all the good signals we’ve had this winter and proper cold forecasts this all just seems like a bit of damp squib to me, don’t get me wrong I might be on my own with this it’s probably my location swaying me but cold rain is just depressing rubbish! I crave proper cold and proper snow, sod all the marginality.

Also, call me bitter but how is it we look like the sweet spot then as we get towards the off the north and midlands are always the favoured ones? Rant over, yes someone did p**s on my cornflakes 😂 

Edited by Weathizard

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Just now, Froze were the Days said:

I feel there might be a lot of disappointed people come tomorrow morning - okay might be some places that do better than others (just a hunch).

Yes, the latest warning was to cover the rush hour today. It also reduces the potential snow by half, so now 1-3 cm and max 5cm.

The models have been indicating this reduced amount for some runs so no surprise Met has adjusted.

The warning for Thursday/Friday ties in with the well signposted second low again had to come bearing in mind ECM/UKMO models. Again marginality is high for the south, so expectations should reflect that.

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Not too surprised regarding the warnings that are being put up by the Met Office, they are fairly broad and general at the moment due to the uncertainty regarding the exact track and placement of accumulations.

A fair chance that by tomorrow we may see an amber warning need to be issued, at least over the north of this area IMO. Providing the models don't shift towards the GFS OP (which is looking less likely IMO this morning).

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Ok here goes - am I the only one who isn’t satisfied by this slushfest? In our region realistically the snow isn’t going to last regardless of if we get a CM or 2 laying it’ll be melted by midday

Given all the good signals we’ve had this winter and proper cold forecasts this all just seems like a bit of damp squib to me, don’t get me wrong I might be on my own with this it’s probably my location swaying me but cold rain is just depressing rubbish! I crave proper cold and proper snow, sod all the marginality.

Also, call me bitter but how is it we look like the sweet spot then as we get towards the off the north and midlands are always the favoured ones? Rant over, yes someone did p**s on my cornflakes 😂 

Did you not use the p#@? on the cornflakes line last Friday when you claimed the cold this week to be dead and buried.

New week, new material??😂

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Still very much up in the air for tonight.

Exciting times!

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1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

Did you not use the p#@? on the cornflakes line last Friday when you claimed the cold this week to be dead and buried.

New week, new material??😂

If you call a ‘cold spell’ 6c by day then your idea of a cold spell is clearly different to mine mate, there’s going to be a lot of people disappointed by tonight IMO

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9 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

How often does the SE have 4 days in a row of weather warnings for snow. Thought this week would get interesting....lets hope we luck out on the higher end for both events 🙂

Bang on.

This isn't a big Easterly granted, but there is something available for all of us tonight and into the rest of the week!

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Just now, throwoff said:

Still very much up in the air for tonight.

Exciting times!

Indeed, going to be a messy one and we know know till nearer the time, when, what and how much will fall 🤗

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