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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


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06z model suite coming out. Basically all the 06z runs are staying where they are.

GFS OP is poor for our region, as per normal!

GFSP has a good snow event but does turn to rain at the end, especially further south.

ARPEGE is sensational for our area, but IMO is too far south

ICON is also very good run, but has moved further north to be more inline with the ECM/UKMO.

HIRLAM doesn't run past 48hrs BUT the angle of the front and LP placement looks like its going to follow the UKMO/ECM broadly.

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Best of luck to the SE gang tonight ?

Evening All, I hope other Members have no objection but just wanted to post up a Wintry Slideshow, for our Kentish Members. But I hope all Members will enjoy these very Wintry photos, from around

Best of luck yo you guys and girls in the South. Don't give up hope if it starts as rain. It rained here for about 2 hours now it's heavy snow. You should be good for a few cms also as it's very heavy

Posted Images

29 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Below is a photo of a frozen, Pegwell Bay, between Ramsgate and Sandwich, in February 1985.

After a very cold January, CET of 0.8c, February came in with a slightly milder CET of 2.1c.

This photo reproduced with the kind permission of Ian Currie, from his Kent County Weather Book. Excuse my thumb!!

image.thumb.png.e782960198377e07eeaa1288eeee2e0f.png

12 months later, the FEB.1986 CET, came in at -1.1c :shok:

Oh, for a February as cold as 1986 this year but with a bit more snow, please!!

Although, what little snow fell in S.E.London, hung around due to the intensity of the cold.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

With the now-gone Richborough Power Station in the background! That photo feels like 'home' to me ?

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5 minutes ago, dallas said:

How often does the SE have 4 days in a row of weather warnings for snow. Thought this week would get interesting....lets hope we luck out on the higher end for both events ?

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I feel there might be a lot of disappointed people come tomorrow morning - okay might be some places that do better than others (just a hunch). Saying that I've just noticed -20 dew point over me for tonight on those charts above (I'm in the sweet spot) ?

Edited by Froze were the Days
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The Stansted airport TAF (EGSS) issued at 04:56 is saying that there is a low probability of snow for that area so its looking like I will be lucky to see anything at all. Booooooooo. The next TAF is due out any time now so hoping for a decent upgrade with fingers crossed.

Good luck to the rest of you.

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Ok here goes - am I the only one who isn’t satisfied by this slushfest? In our region realistically the snow isn’t going to last regardless of if we get a CM or 2 laying it’ll be melted by midday

Given all the good signals we’ve had this winter and proper cold forecasts this all just seems like a bit of damp squib to me, don’t get me wrong I might be on my own with this it’s probably my location swaying me but cold rain is just depressing rubbish! I crave proper cold and proper snow, sod all the marginality.

Also, call me bitter but how is it we look like the sweet spot then as we get towards the off the north and midlands are always the favoured ones? Rant over, yes someone did p**s on my cornflakes ? 

Edited by Weathizard
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Just now, Froze were the Days said:

I feel there might be a lot of disappointed people come tomorrow morning - okay might be some places that do better than others (just a hunch).

Yes, the latest warning was to cover the rush hour today. It also reduces the potential snow by half, so now 1-3 cm and max 5cm.

The models have been indicating this reduced amount for some runs so no surprise Met has adjusted.

The warning for Thursday/Friday ties in with the well signposted second low again had to come bearing in mind ECM/UKMO models. Again marginality is high for the south, so expectations should reflect that.

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Not too surprised regarding the warnings that are being put up by the Met Office, they are fairly broad and general at the moment due to the uncertainty regarding the exact track and placement of accumulations.

A fair chance that by tomorrow we may see an amber warning need to be issued, at least over the north of this area IMO. Providing the models don't shift towards the GFS OP (which is looking less likely IMO this morning).

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Ok here goes - am I the only one who isn’t satisfied by this slushfest? In our region realistically the snow isn’t going to last regardless of if we get a CM or 2 laying it’ll be melted by midday

Given all the good signals we’ve had this winter and proper cold forecasts this all just seems like a bit of damp squib to me, don’t get me wrong I might be on my own with this it’s probably my location swaying me but cold rain is just depressing rubbish! I crave proper cold and proper snow, sod all the marginality.

Also, call me bitter but how is it we look like the sweet spot then as we get towards the off the north and midlands are always the favoured ones? Rant over, yes someone did p**s on my cornflakes ? 

Did you not use the p#@? on the cornflakes line last Friday when you claimed the cold this week to be dead and buried.

New week, new material???

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1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

Did you not use the p#@? on the cornflakes line last Friday when you claimed the cold this week to be dead and buried.

New week, new material???

If you call a ‘cold spell’ 6c by day then your idea of a cold spell is clearly different to mine mate, there’s going to be a lot of people disappointed by tonight IMO

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9 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

How often does the SE have 4 days in a row of weather warnings for snow. Thought this week would get interesting....lets hope we luck out on the higher end for both events ?

Bang on.

This isn't a big Easterly granted, but there is something available for all of us tonight and into the rest of the week!

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As I said yesterday, we are in this interesting position where people might be able to look out of their window one way and see a good few inches, look out the other and have nothing. It will be so marginal in some places.

I do hold out a little hope for my neck of the woods but who knows.

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9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Ok here goes - am I the only one who isn’t satisfied by this slushfest? In our region realistically the snow isn’t going to last regardless of if we get a CM or 2 laying it’ll be melted by midday

Given all the good signals we’ve had this winter and proper cold forecasts this all just seems like a bit of damp squib to me, don’t get me wrong I might be on my own with this it’s probably my location swaying me but cold rain is just depressing rubbish! I crave proper cold and proper snow, sod all the marginality.

Also, call me bitter but how is it we look like the sweet spot then as we get towards the off the north and midlands are always the favoured ones? Rant over, yes someone did p**s on my cornflakes ? 

You and me both... but then we are both on the coast. I'm glad you said it and not me, I don't want to be accused of bringing all this negativity to the thread.

Good luck to those further north and enjoy your snow fix.

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Well to me it seems to be coming a little faster than I wanted, I can't see it being much apart from a mess if I'm honest for these parts, hopefully Thursday goes how we need it to benefit greater.

Tonight's rush hour might be fun, the mess will slow traffic that's for sure.

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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2 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Well to me it seems to be coming a little faster than I wanted, I can't see it being much apart from a mess if I'm honest for these parts, hopefully Thursday goes how we need it to benefit greater.

Tonight's rush hour might be fun, the mess will slow traffic that's for sure.

HIRLAM has it slower imo

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